Is Rudy Going to Ignore Evangelicals?
With the bare fact being that no Republican in recent memory has been able to win a major contest without at least the tacit backing of the religious right, Rudy Guliani might be trying to buck that trend. While on the surface it may seem like a bad gamble, is Rudy playing the smart card, letting the other candidates fight over the evangelical vote-and keeping himself clean from association with the far-right fringe in the process-hoping that he could hold all the cards at nomination time?
Starting February 17th and going through February 20th in Orlando, Florida, the National Religious Broadcasters will be holding their convention. And as one might expect, Republican candidates are lining up to try to woo the support of the evangelical leaders. For if the past is any indication, evangelicals tend to vote as their leaders suggest. There were some defections in 2006, but none major enough to change the paradigm. So what is Rudy thinking?
Rudy is thinking that he has double digit leads in most all of the national polls over his GOP challengers and that he should NOT have to pander to the Religious Evangelical Right. He will NOT receive their support or endorsements in any case.
However, by NOT pandering to them he may well be better positioned in the general election against Hillary Clinton.
Let McCain and Romney who have their own problems with James Dobson, Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell pander and divide the Evangelical vote and campaign money. In the meantime, the large corporate GOP Donors including Hollywood Producers will feel more comfortable with a secular Giuliani campaign, open their wallets and fund the pre-Super Tuesday media campaign especially in large delegate rich non-Southern states.
Howard Fineman, writing for MSNBC, speaks about the ‘Three Kingmakers.” He is of course talking about Jerry Falwell, Pat Robertson, and James Dobson. According to Fineman, Falwell has already decided on McCain and Robertson is favoring Romney. Leaving only James Dobson as the undecided of the three. The problem is this-how many Americans, in 2008, are going to trust the candidate who ends up with the majority of these three “Kingmakers” behind him?
So maybe Rudy Guliani is playing it smart. He knows that if he is the Republican candidate the evangelical voters will mostly do one of two things. Hold their noses and vote for him over the Democratic candidate, or stay home and not vote at all. Either way will help him.
James Dobson of Focus on the Family on John McCain: â€œI pray that we donâ€™t get stuck with himâ€
Sorry Allah – this is NO death wish. Just the way it is and how Giuliani wins the Presidency.
Technorati Tags: RudyGiuliani