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Archive for February 27th, 2007

Feb 27 2007

Rudy Giuliani Watch: WAPO-ABC Poll – Rudy 44% – McCain 21%

Posted by Flap in President 2008, Rudy Giuliani

Washington Post: Blacks Shift To Obama, Poll Finds

In the Republican race, former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, who recently made clear his intentions to seek the presidency, has expanded his lead over Sen. John McCain of Arizona. Giuliani holds a 2 to 1 advantage over McCain among Republicans, according to the poll, more than tripling his margin of a month ago.

The principal reason was a shift among white evangelical Protestants, who now clearly favor Giuliani over McCain. Giuliani among this group of Americans despite his support of abortion rights and gay rights, two issues of great importance to religious conservatives. McCain opposes abortion rights.

The Poll:

If the 2008 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were: (Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Chuck Hagel, Tommy Thompson, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, George Pataki, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Jim Gilmore, or Ron Paul), for whom would you vote? (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS)

NET LEANED VOTE:
2/25/07     1/19/07      12/11/06
Rudy Giuliani           44          34           34
John McCain             21          27           26
Newt Gingrich           15           9           12
Mitt Romney              4           9            5
Chuck Hagel              1           *            *
Tommy Thompson           2           1            2
Mike Huckabee            2           1            *
Duncan Hunter            *           *            1
George Pataki            1           2            3
Sam Brownback            1           1            1
Tom Tancredo             *           1            *
Jim Gilmore              *           1           NA
Ron Paul                 1           1           NA
Other (vol.)             *           *            *
None of these (vol.)     2           2            6
Would not vote (vol.)    1           1            *
No opinion               4           9            9

Since January and Rudy’s announcement of presidential candidacy the first week of February, he has absolutely BURIED the competition.

Rudy’s numbers in this poll (with Newt Gingrich included) have increased 10 percentage points from January to February. John McCain has decreased 6 points and Mitt Romney 5 percentage points during the same time period.

Ron Paul fans: Ron continues at 1% but is considered in this poll.

Now, the next poll is directed to Newt Gingrich supporters:

(ASKED OF GINGRICH SUPPORTERS) If Gingrich does not run,
for whom would you vote?

NET LEANED VOTE IF NO GINGRICH

2/25/07
Rudy Giuliani           53
John McCain             23
Mitt Romney              5
Chuck Hagel              1
Tommy Thompson           2
Mike Huckabee            2
Duncan Hunter            *
George Pataki            1
Sam Brownback            2
Tom Tancredo             1
Jim Gilmore              *
Ron Paul                 1
Other (vol.)             *
None of these (vol.)     2
Would not vote (vol.)    1
No opinion               5

So, if Newt does not run, Rudy wins a majority of support from Gingrich fans by a whopping 53%. Poor Mitt Romney is buried at 5 %. McCain is at 23%. Again, Ron Paul polls 1%.

Let’s look at attribute ratings:

Attribute	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	All	Any 2	None	No Op.
is the strongest leader	63	26	5	*	1	1	4
best understands the problems of people like you	51	27	8	*	*	6	8
has the best experience to be president	38	47	6	1	1	2	4
is the most inspiring	65	21	6	*	1	3	4
has the best chance of getting elected president in November 2008	55	34	4	*	*	1	5
is closest to you on the issues	44	29	12	*	*	2	12

Again, except for one category Giuliani destroys McCain and Romney.

Ok, let’s look at Abortion and Gay Civil Unions:

(ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) Giuliani has been a supporter of legal abortion and gay civil unions. Does this make you (more likely) to vote for him for the Republican nomination for president, (less likely), or doesn’t it make a difference in your vote?

Date	More	Less	Does Not Make a difference	No opinion

Another question along these lines:(IF LESS LIKELY, previous question) Given his position on abortion and gay civil unions,
is there a chance you’d vote for Giuliani for the Republican nomination for president, or no chance?

Date	Chance	No chance	No opin.
2/25/07	49	49	2

And remember this was asked of GOP Leaning voters and not Democrats or Independents.But, why does Rudy continue to poll well despite the abortion numbers?

Because abortion is not at the forefront of issues facing America and although important lacks the weight of the Iraq War and terrorism.

Hence, this poll:

(ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) What’s the single most important issue to you in your choice for the Republican candidate for president?

2/25/07
Terrorism/security             18
War in Iraq                    17
Economy/jobs                   15
Health care                     6
Honesty                         6
Someone I trust                 4
Strong leadership               4
Abortion                        3
Immigration                     3
Education                       3
Morals/family values            3
Foreign policy                  2
The right experience            *
Electability/best chance
to win in November           0
Other                          11
No opinion                      5

Note where abortion is – 8th from the top.

Look what is number 1: Terrorism/Security – A Giuliani strength.

Flap pontificated earlier today that Rudy Giuliani WILL BE the GOP Nominee.

There is nothing in this poll that would pursuade him otherwise.

Previous:

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rasmussen Poll – Giuliani 33% McCain 17% Gingrich 13%

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Gallup Poll – Rudy Has Uniquely Broad Based Political Appeal

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Hoover Institution Lunch

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Democrats Should Go After Rudy NOW

President 2008 Watch: Christian Right Labors for Redemptive â€˜08 Conservative

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy vs. Hillary by the Electoral Numbers

Rudy Giuliani Watch: New York Times Tells Rudy How to Campaign

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy Visits with South Carolina Firefighters

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy Opts Out of Religious Broadcasters Meeting

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Evangelical Richard Land Strikes Back at Rudy

The Rudy Giuliani Files

Technorati Tags: RudyGiuliani

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Feb 27 2007

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rasmussen Poll – Giuliani 33% McCain 17% Gingrich 13%

Posted by Flap in President 2008, Rudy Giuliani

Rasmussen Reports: 2008 Republican Presidential Primary

Arizona Senator John McCainâ€™s (R) support among Likely Republican Primary Voters has slipped to the lowest level ever recorded since Rasmussen Reports began tracking the race shortly after last Novemberâ€™s election. McCain is now the top pick for just 17% of Republicans. Thatâ€™s down two points from a week ago, five points since mid-January and is barely half the level of support enjoyed by Republican frontrunner Rudy Giuliani.

For the second straight week, the former Mayor of New York attracts support from 33% of Likely Republican Primary Voters. The man dubbed Americaâ€™s Mayor in the wake of 9/11 has seen his personal favorables rise back to the 70% level once again.

McCain continues to fade, Romney is failing to catch fire and is Newt waiting in the wings to pick up the pieces to go head to head with Rudy?

Possible.

Most voters in Republican Primaries are politically conservative. Among those who consider themselves Very Conservative, Giuliani attracts 24% of the vote, Gingrich 23% and McCain is the third choice at 19%.

Among those who are Somewhat Conservative, itâ€™s Giuliani 34% McCain 15% and Gingrich 14%.

Self-identified moderates likely to participate in the Primary favor Giuliani over McCain 41% to 18%.

But, will Rudy’s fundraising be too far along for Newt to attract the donors?

Yes.

And Newt may not achieve Kingmaker status that he wants at the GOP Convention.

Flap wants to call it for Rudy but McCain and Romney will mount a campaign – eventually?

Update:

Dick Morris agrees with Flap abut McCain’s collapse, Romney’s inability to catch fire with the GOP base and Newt’s problem with calendar and fundraising.

Hugh Hewitt at least agrees with Flap about McCain’s collapsing electoral prospects. But, will Romney’s campaign be around for Hugh’s book about Mitt and Mormonism to at least get a few sales?

The Fat Lady is warming up her throat.

Ok, Flap will do it: Rudy Giuliani WILL be the next GOP nominee for President.

Stay tuned……