Canada Election Watch: Polls Show Harper and Conservatives Near a Majority

Canadian Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper (L) greets supporters while attending an election rally in Toronto, Ontario January 12, 2006. Two new polls gave the Conservative Party a strong lead in the run-up to the January 23 federal election, and a projection based on several surveys said they could be within three seats of a majority.

The Globe and Mail: Seat projection puts Harper on cusp of majority

The Conservative Party will come within a few seats of winning a majority government, if current levels of voter support hold up, according to projections by the Strategic Counsel.

The Liberal Party would form the Official Opposition but would have only about a dozen more MPs than the third-place Bloc QuÃ©bÃ©cois, the projections suggest.

The Adscam Scandal and the other foolishness of Paul Martin has come home to roost in Canada.

The projections, which are calculated by running this week’s Strategic Counsel poll of more than 3,500 Canadians through a mathematical formula, are that the Tories will win 152 seats on Jan. 23, followed by 74 for the Liberals, 60 for the Bloc and 21 for the NDP. There are 308 seats in the House, so a party needs 155 to form a majority.

Canadian Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper holds up his party’s spending plan during an unveiling in Oakville, Ontario January 13, 2006.

The Regional Breakdown of the polling:

â€“ British Columbia is on track to elect 26 Tories, six Liberals, three NDP MPs and an Independent.

â€“ All 28 ridings in Alberta will go to the Conservatives.

â€“ Manitoba and Saskatchewan will not change, once again electing a combined 20 Conservatives, four Liberals and four NDP MPs.

â€“ The Greater Toronto Area will elect 35 Liberals, eight Tories and two NDP MPs while the rest of Ontario will elect 49 Tories, four Liberals and eight New Democrats.

â€“ Montreal will have 21 Bloc MPs and seven Liberals, while the rest of Quebec will elect 39 Bloc MPs and eight Conservatives.

â€“ Atlantic Canada will elect 15 Liberals, 13 Conservatives and four NDP MPs.

â€“ All three seats in the territories will go to the Liberals.