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Flap reported a few days ago a break-out by Mitt Romney in the Des Moines Register poll. Apparently this was a statistical abnormality or BLIP – especially since Fred Thompson and Newt Ginrich were not included in the poll.

The latest Iowa poll by Strategic Vision tells a different story:

  • Mitt Romney 20%
  • Rudy Giuliani 18%
  • John McCain 16%
  • Fred Thompson 10%
  • Tommy Thompson 7%
  • Newt Gingrich 5%
  • Mike Huckabee 3%
  • Sam Brownback 2%
  • Tom Tancredo 2%
  • Ron Paul 2%
  • Duncan Hunter 1%
  • Jim Gilmore 1%
  • Chuck Hagel 1%
  • Undecided 12%

Let’s now look at the Real Clear Politics summary poll for Iowa:

giulianimay23bweb

Without a doubt, the Mayor has fallen out of favor in the Iowa polls since March. However, he has stabilized over the past month and is in a virtual DEAD HEAT with Romney and McCain.

Iowa is a state that Mitt Romney MUST win. The Mittster wishes to catapult himself from the Iowa Caucuses on January 14th to Nevada on January 19th and then to New Hampshire on January 22nd. This is the Mitt-Mentum strategy.

Hizzoner, on the other hand, strategizes with a big win in Florida on January 29th to propel him to a knock-out win on February 5th with New York, New Jersey, California, Pennsylvania and Illinois. California has five times the GOP delegates as Iowa.

So, is Iowa even important to Rudy?

Perhaps

giulianimay22gweb

Will Rudy spend the $millions to compete in the Iowa Straw Poll or compete at all in the Iowa Caucuses?

Pundits will have to wait.

And wait for what?

Fred Thompson

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9 Responses to “Giuliani Notes: Iowa Poll Shows Romney Lead a BLIP”
  1. HeavyM says:

    Flap,

    Of course, the big story of this poll that you’re missing is that Romney’s momentum in all these polls is the same — and in this one, he rose from 8% and fourth place to 20% and first place.

    Rudy’s numbers are likewise in a steep decline, down 11 since he announced and down 7 since the last poll. I can see why you wouldn’t like to report those things, though.

    Rudy’s veneer is coming off of his star power, and the voters don’t like him. Sorry, bro.

  2. Giuliani Notes: Iowa Poll Shows Romney Lead a BLIP…

  3. Flap says:

    HeavyM,

    Guess you haven’t been looking at the national Real Clear Politics poll averages.

    Here is the link: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html

    The Iowa poll from the Des Moines Register appears to be an aberration as the Strategic Vision poll so aptly points out.

    Voters don’t like Rudy?

    Well, he leads all of the Fav/Unfav polls.

    Sorry Bro, get your facts RIGHT.

  4. RJ says:

    Flap,

    You said Romney was done months ago when it was discovered that illegal aliens had been hired by the lawn care company contracted by the Romney’s.

    I believe you said, “Stick a Fork in him he’s done.”

    Now Romney leads in Iowa with 30%!

    Flap, you have NO Credibility!

  5. Flap says:

    RJ,

    Romney is DONE.

    One blip in one poll. He is 9-10% every place else.

    Ok, Mittster may get 15% at the end of the day and Rudy gets 35%.

    And Mitt wins Utah.

    Wow….some campaign……

  6. RJ says:

    Flap,

    My post was not intended to be a “Pro Romney” Post.

    I simply wanted to point out that you have NO credibility!

    Rudy would do well in the general election, but he will never get there. He will not make it through the early states due to his positions.

    You can keep dreamin though!

  7. Flap says:

    My credibility is not at issue. I am right about Romney. He is in 4th place in most of the polls.

    I am a pundit like everyone else. Infallible? No.

    But, Rudy continues to lead in the polls and as a Romney bot you have little or no cred.

    If you want more back and forth, head over to My Dental Forum and let’s go.

    http://mydentalforum.com

  8. dlddustin says:

    This blip you reported is oddly occurring in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Michigan. Odd that this statistical blip hit two major primary states at the same time. A better argument for you would be that Romney is only doing well because he is the only one buying airtime right now.

  9. Flap says:

    No,this poll is a blip.

    No Fred Thompson and Gingrich.

    No one except Romney-bots believe he is up by so much in Iowa and the other polls support this. Look at the graphics above.

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