President 2012 Prediction: Romney Wins Narrow Electoral College Victory
I am an optimistic sort for the GOP and bucking the conventional wisdom believe that when all the votes are counted, Mitt Romney will be elected the 45th President of the United States. Note, my map above still has Iowa up in the air – but is irrelevant at this point.
By the time, the early Midwestern votes come in via exit polls, America should know the trend.
If Romney loses Ohio AND Wisconsin, he is probably toast.
If Obama loses any other state like Pennsylvania or Ohio, the President is done.
Others have offered their, I would say, balanced perspective.
In the final weeks of the presidential campaign, there have been two major schools of thought about who is going to win. One school points to President Obama getting reelected for a very simple reason: polls show Mitt Romney losing Ohio, and all of the states that he would need to win to make up for a loss in Ohio. The other school argues that state polls have been systematically biased against Romney by assuming that Democratic turnout will rival – or even exceed – elevated 2008 levels, when Obamamania was at its peak. Those who believe that Romney will win have pointed to polls showing him ahead among independents, predicted a late break toward the challenger, or pointed to economic fundamentals. To read the conventional wisdom pointing to an Obama win, check out Nate Silver. To read predictions of a Romney win, check out our own Michael Barone, as well as Dan McLaughlin, Ben Domenech, Jay Cost. Also read Ted Frank, who still thinks Obama will likely win, though he makes a strong devil’s advocate argument for how Romney could pull it out.
But, in the end, I think a majority of American voters are not happy with the direction of the country and will willing to vote for a change.
In any case, the majority of the House of Representatives looks safely in the hands of the GOP. The U.S. Senate majority will remain under Democratic Party control.
Balanced or split party government is what Americans desire and that is what they will have after the voting tomorrow.
President 2012: Latest Key Battleground State Polls for November 5
Here are the latest key battleground state polls:
- Florida: Romney 52%, Obama 47% (InsiderAdvantage)
- Florida: Obama 50%, Romney 49% (Public Policy Polling)
- Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 48% (Pulse Opinion Research)
- North Carolina: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Public Policy Polling)
- Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (Pulse Opinion Research)
- Pennsylvania: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (Pulse Opinion Research)
- Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)
- Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (Pulse Opinion Research)
- Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (Pulse Opinion Research)
The Real Clear Politics average of polls and more are here.
As I have been saying for about a week now – the Presidential race is very close and we will be in for an exciting night of election returns.
If the polls are correct, then we will be in for a very late night Tuesday and early morning Wednesday.
The Electoral College: State of the Presidential Race
The above graphic is how the Presidential race will turn out in the Electoral College on November the 6th. I have Mitt Romney defeating President Obama 271 Electoral Votes vs. 261 Electoral Votes.
Most notable recent changes I have made have been the loss of Ohio to the President and the pick up of Colorado for Romney.
Here is my Electoral College map I made after Mitt Romney chose Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin for his Vice President running mate.
To say the least, the race is tight.
Mitt Romney continues to make a play for Nevada and I understand as of yesterday, he made a very large television ad buy in Northern Nevada – the Reno market.
Recent polling by Rasmussen and Gallup have Ohio all tied up – well within the margins of error. Ohio could go either way. I think Obama now needs Ohio more than Romney in order to win, which goes against the maxim that GOP Presidential wins go through Ohio.
Stay tuned as more polls roll in throughout the next few days.
However, I think, my first map with a 271 Electoral College Vote win for Romney will probably be the end result.
Day By Day October 19, 2012 – Smackdown
Sorry readers that I have not recently posted Chris Muir’s Day By Day cartoon. I will try to be more prolific in my posting.
Chris, you have to watch women and that “WEIGHT” issue. Remember that this is way too shallow.
With regards to Candy Crowley’s conduct at the Presidential debate, now that can be criticized.
Is there any doubt that she helped President Obama escape a truthful explanation of the Libya terrorist debacle?
And, didn’t CNN’s Crowley derail Mitt Romney with constant interruptions and allowing President Obama to have more time for his explanations.
The Town Hall format of the debate was a fail and Crowley was a failure.
Poll Watch: Romney Takes the Lead in the Electoral College for First Time
For the first time, Real Clear Politics and their poll averages has Mitt Romney beating President Obama in the Electoral College.
The map is similar to my map from several months ago.
This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com
But, what is interesting is that a number of states that many have thought in the Team Obama camp, may be in play – most notably Pennsylvania and Michigan.
The battleground state polls after the Monday night debate, should deliver a clearer picture of what will happen on November 6th.
By the way, the magic number of Electoral College votes to win is 270.
Gallup Poll: Obama Losing Momentum With Voters
President Obama’s loss of momentum traces back to the first Presidential debate when Mitt Romney schooled the President. But, the latest Gallup Poll is even more telling.
Half of likely voters now prefer Mitt Romney for president and 46% back President Barack Obama in Gallup interviewing through Monday.
While Romney’s four-percentage-point advantage is not statistically significant, he has consistently edged ahead of Obama each of the past several days in Gallup’s seven-day rolling averages conducted entirely after the Oct. 3 presidential debate. Prior to that debate — regarded as a decisive Romney win by political experts and Americans who watched it — Romney averaged less than a one-point lead over Obama among likely voters.
The latest result, from Oct. 9-15, is based on 2,723 likely voters drawn from more than 3,100 registered voters.
And, here is the registered voters poll chart – note the trend.
Gallup has also done a comparison between Obama Vs. McCain and Obama Vs. Romney.
Here is the chart:
Here is the summary of the differences between 2008 and 2012:
Degreed voters backing off Obama: In 2008, Obama led McCain among postgraduate educated voters by a 30-point margin, while he ran roughly even with McCain among those with lower levels of education. Today, Obama’s postgraduate advantage has been cut to 14 points and he trails Romney among college graduates (those with four-year degrees only) by 22 points. His support from high school graduates and those with some college is also down slightly, providing no counterbalance to his major losses among the college educated.
Southern losses: The South gave Obama the least support of any region in 2008, but still split their vote evenly for Obama vs. McCain. Today, Southerners favor Romney by a 22-point margin, the largest shift of any region. Voters in the East are also less supportive, while preferences in the West and Midwest are little changed.
Young voters stick with him: Young voters were an important part of Obama’s 2008 coalition, and in 2012 they continue to support him overwhelmingly, at roughly the same level as four years ago. The difficulty for Obama is that he currently has less support among each older age group, particularly those aged 30 to 49 years.
White support dwindles: Obama lost the white vote in 2008 by 12 percentage points, but that was more than offset by a 72-point lead among nonwhites. Today, Obama has a more daunting 22-point deficit among whites, while his margin over Romney among nonwhites is essentially unchanged.
Men move away: In 2008, Gallup found a 14-point swing in gender preferences for president, with women favoring Obama by a 14-point margin and men tied in their preferences for Obama vs. McCain. Today, there is a 20-point gender gap. Women’s support for Obama shrank to six percentage points, while men favor Romney by 14 points.
So, what does this all mean?
The President is in trouble for re-election. Mitt Romney has been surging since the first Denver Presidential debate and if Obama does not reverse this course in three weeks there will be a new President come 2013.
Watch the President come out swinging in tonight’s debate.
Obama really has to hit a home run or he is toast.
The USA Today / Gallup Poll Has Romney Leading Obama by 4 Points
According to the latest USA Today / Gallup Presidential Poll.
Mitt Romney leads President Obama by four percentage points among likely voters in the nation’s top battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and he has growing enthusiasm among women to thank.
As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney. The Republican nominee now ties the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-48%, while he leads by 12 points among men.
The battle for women, which was apparent in the speakers spotlighted at both political conventions this summer, is likely to help define messages the candidates deliver at the presidential debate Tuesday night and in the TV ads they air during the final 21 days of the campaign. As a group, women tend to start paying attention to election contests later and remain more open to persuasion by the candidates and their ads.
That makes women, especially blue-collar “waitress moms” whose families have been hard-hit by the nation’s economic woes, the quintessential swing voters in 2012’s close race.
The conventional wisdom is that President Obama will be the aggressor at tomorrow night’s town-hall style Presidential debate. But, there is risk to that approach, especially with women.
In any case, Mitt Romney is in far better shape on the eve of the second Presidential debate than he was before the first.
Obama Steps Into It with Big Bird Campaign Ad
The Obama campaign ad was released this morning, but the Big Bird folks want Obama to pull the ad.
Big Bird, it seems, isn’t thrilled about his cameo in the presidential race.
The folks at Sesame Street are asking the Obama campaign to pull down a TV ad released Tuesday that mocks Mitt Romney for vowing to yank the subsidy to PBS.
At the presidential debate in Denver last week, Mr. Romney said he would end the subsidy in view of the nation’s fiscal troubles.
“I love Big Bird,” the Republican challenger said “… But I’m not going to keep on spending money on things to borrow money from China to pay for.”
Up went an ad by team Obama called “Big Bird’’ that suggests Mr. Romney is targeting children’s programming rather than legitimate threats to people’s economic interests.
The ad shows images of Bernie Madoff and others implicated in various financial and corporate scandals. A narrator then intones: “And the evil genius who towered over them?”
A silhouette of Big Bird flashes on screen.
“Mitt Romney knows it’s not Wall Street you have to worry about, it’s Sesame Street,” the narrator said.
The ad is airing on national cable and broadcast TV, in time slots devoted to comedy shows, the Obama campaign said.
Sesame Street isn’t amused. Sesame Workshop, a nonprofit educational organization that produces and owns the show, issued a statement Tuesday saying “we do not endorse candidates or participate in political campaigns. We have approved no campaign ads, and as is our general practice, have requested that the ad be taken down.”
This is the biggest Obama GAFFE of the Presidential campaign so far.
The ad trivializes the Presidency and really is unbecoming to President Obama. His campaign should pull the ad and apologize.
In response, the Romney campaign issued the following:
The choice in this election is becoming more clear each day. Four years ago, President Obama said that if you don’t have a record to run on, ‘you make a big election about small things.’ With 23 million people struggling for work, incomes falling and gas prices soaring, Americans deserve more from their president.
Gallup Poll: Romney Post Debate Draws Even with Obama
Matt Drudge is screaming the result on this Monday federal holiday (Columbus Day) morning. Here is the poll chart:
Romney DID win the debate decisively – in historic proportions:
This may be the start of a Romney surge as obviously American voters are becoming more comfortable with Mitt Romney. Will this be a repeat of the 1980 campaign of Reagan Vs. Carter as Reagan surged after the Presidential debates?
And, how will the Paul Ryan vs. Joe Biden debate this Thursday effect the race?
Stay tuned as each campaign adapts to the changing electoral landscape.
Memo to Mitt Romney: Go Large or Go Home
Charles Krauthammer could not have said it better to Mitt Romney.
Mitt, you are behind in the polls and blaming pollsters for oversampling Democrats is not going to cut it.
You have allowed the Obama campaign to cast you as the County Club Fat Cat that everyone loves to hate. In the meantime, you have rolled over and talked about what?
Certainly not the fact Obama’s Presidency has been a disaster both economically and in foreign policy.
There is still time to turn this race around. The country is a mess and voters want an alternative.
Go all in and show them some fire in the belly – why you want to be President.
Or, release your donors to support other Republican POLS who want to fight for America.