President 2012 Prediction: Romney Wins Narrow Electoral College Victory

Posted 5 CommentsPosted in Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, President 2012

Romney State of the Race October 23 2012 The Electoral College: State of the Presidential Race

From 270towin.com

I am an optimistic sort for the GOP and bucking the conventional wisdom believe that when all the votes are counted, Mitt Romney will be elected the 45th President of the United States. Note, my map above still has Iowa up in the air – but is irrelevant at this point.

By the time, the early Midwestern votes come in via exit polls, America should know the trend.

If Romney loses Ohio AND Wisconsin, he is probably toast.

If Obama loses any other state like Pennsylvania or Ohio, the President is done.

Others have offered their, I would say, balanced perspective.

In the final weeks of the presidential campaign, there have been two major schools of thought about who is going to win. One school points to President Obama getting reelected for a very simple reason: polls show Mitt Romney losing Ohio, and all of the states that he would need to win to make up for a loss in Ohio. The other school argues that state polls have been systematically biased against Romney by assuming that Democratic turnout will rival – or even exceed – elevated 2008 levels, when Obamamania was at its peak. Those who believe that Romney will win have pointed to polls showing him ahead among independents, predicted a late break toward the challenger, or pointed to economic fundamentals. To read the conventional wisdom pointing to an Obama win, check out Nate Silver. To read predictions of a Romney win, check out our own Michael Barone, as well as Dan McLaughlin, Ben Domenech, Jay Cost. Also read Ted Frank, who still thinks Obama will likely win, though he makes a strong devil’s advocate argument for how Romney could pull it out.

But, in the end, I think a majority of American voters are not happy with the direction of the country and will willing to vote for a change.

In any case, the majority of the House of Representatives looks safely in the hands of the GOP. The U.S. Senate majority will remain under Democratic Party control.

Balanced or split party government is what Americans desire and that is what they will have after the voting tomorrow.

President 2012: Latest Key Battleground State Polls for November 5

Posted Posted in Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Polling, President 2012

Rasmussen Poll Romney 49 vs. Obama 48Here are the latest key battleground state polls:

The Real Clear Politics average of polls and more are here.

As I have been saying for about a week now – the Presidential race is very close and we will be in for an exciting night of election returns.

If the polls are correct, then we will be in for a very late night Tuesday and early morning Wednesday.

The Electoral College: State of the Presidential Race

Posted Posted in Barack Obama, Electoral College, Mitt Romney, President 2012

Romney State of the Race October 23 2012 The Morning Flap: October 23, 2012

From 270towin.com

The above graphic is how the Presidential race will turn out in the Electoral College on November the 6th. I have Mitt Romney defeating President Obama 271 Electoral Votes vs. 261 Electoral Votes.

Most notable recent changes I have made have been the loss of Ohio to the President and the pick up of Colorado for Romney.

Here is my Electoral College map I made after Mitt Romney chose Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin for his Vice President running mate.

 Electoral College August 11 2012 Does Paul Ryan Help Mitt Romney in the Electoral College?

From 270towin.com

To say the least, the race is tight.

Mitt Romney continues to make a play for Nevada and I understand as of yesterday, he made a very large television ad buy in Northern Nevada – the Reno market.

Recent polling by Rasmussen and Gallup have Ohio all tied up – well within the margins of error. Ohio could go either way. I think Obama now needs Ohio more than Romney in order to win, which goes against the maxim that GOP Presidential wins go through Ohio.

Stay tuned as more polls roll in throughout the next few days.

However, I think, my first map with a 271 Electoral College Vote win for Romney will probably be the end result.

Day By Day October 19, 2012 – Smackdown

Posted 1 CommentPosted in Barack Obama, Day By Day, Mitt Romney

Day By Day cartoon for October 19 2012

Day By Day by Chris Muir

Sorry readers that I have not recently posted Chris Muir’s Day By Day cartoon. I will try to be more prolific in my posting.

I promise.

Chris, you have to watch women and that “WEIGHT” issue. Remember that this is way too shallow.

With regards to Candy Crowley’s conduct at the Presidential debate, now that can be criticized.

Is there any doubt that she helped President Obama escape a truthful explanation of the Libya terrorist debacle?

And, didn’t CNN’s Crowley derail Mitt Romney with constant interruptions and allowing President Obama to have more time for his explanations.

The Town Hall format of the debate was a fail and Crowley was a failure.

Enough said….

Poll Watch: Romney Takes the Lead in the Electoral College for First Time

Posted Posted in Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Polling

Real Clear Politics Electoral College Poll Map

For the first time, Real Clear Politics and their poll averages has Mitt Romney beating President Obama in the Electoral College.

The map is similar to my map from several months ago.

Electoral College August 11 2012 Does Paul Ryan Help Mitt Romney in the Electoral College?

This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com

But, what is interesting is that a number of states that many have thought in the Team Obama camp, may be in play – most notably Pennsylvania and Michigan.

The battleground state polls after the Monday night debate, should deliver a clearer picture of what will happen on November 6th.

By the way, the magic number of Electoral College votes to win is 270.

Gallup Poll: Obama Losing Momentum With Voters

Posted Posted in Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Polling, President 2012

Gallup Presidential Poll among likely votersPresident Obama’s loss of momentum traces back to the first Presidential debate when Mitt Romney schooled the President. But, the latest Gallup Poll is even more telling.

Half of likely voters now prefer Mitt Romney for president and 46% back President Barack Obama in Gallup interviewing through Monday.

While Romney’s four-percentage-point advantage is not statistically significant, he has consistently edged ahead of Obama each of the past several days in Gallup’s seven-day rolling averages conducted entirely after the Oct. 3 presidential debate. Prior to that debate — regarded as a decisive Romney win by political experts and Americans who watched it — Romney averaged less than a one-point lead over Obama among likely voters.

The latest result, from Oct. 9-15, is based on 2,723 likely voters drawn from more than 3,100 registered voters.

And, here is the registered voters poll chart – note the trend.

Gallup Registered Voters Presidential PollGallup has also done a comparison between Obama Vs. McCain and Obama Vs. Romney.

Here is the chart:

Gallup Poll Presidential Preferences 2008 vs 2012Here is the summary of the differences between 2008 and 2012:

Degreed voters backing off Obama: In 2008, Obama led McCain among postgraduate educated voters by a 30-point margin, while he ran roughly even with McCain among those with lower levels of education. Today, Obama’s postgraduate advantage has been cut to 14 points and he trails Romney among college graduates (those with four-year degrees only) by 22 points. His support from high school graduates and those with some college is also down slightly, providing no counterbalance to his major losses among the college educated.

Southern losses: The South gave Obama the least support of any region in 2008, but still split their vote evenly for Obama vs. McCain. Today, Southerners favor Romney by a 22-point margin, the largest shift of any region. Voters in the East are also less supportive, while preferences in the West and Midwest are little changed.

Young voters stick with him: Young voters were an important part of Obama’s 2008 coalition, and in 2012 they continue to support him overwhelmingly, at roughly the same level as four years ago. The difficulty for Obama is that he currently has less support among each older age group, particularly those aged 30 to 49 years.

White support dwindles: Obama lost the white vote in 2008 by 12 percentage points, but that was more than offset by a 72-point lead among nonwhites. Today, Obama has a more daunting 22-point deficit among whites, while his margin over Romney among nonwhites is essentially unchanged.

Men move away: In 2008, Gallup found a 14-point swing in gender preferences for president, with women favoring Obama by a 14-point margin and men tied in their preferences for Obama vs. McCain. Today, there is a 20-point gender gap. Women’s support for Obama shrank to six percentage points, while men favor Romney by 14 points.

So, what does this all mean?

The President is in trouble for re-election. Mitt Romney has been surging since the first Denver  Presidential debate and if Obama does not reverse this course in three weeks there will be a new President come 2013.

Watch the President come out swinging in tonight’s debate.

Obama really has to hit a home run or he is toast.