Barack Obama,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012

President 2012 Prediction: Romney Wins Narrow Electoral College Victory

Romney State of the Race October 23 2012 The Electoral College: State of the Presidential Race


I am an optimistic sort for the GOP and bucking the conventional wisdom believe that when all the votes are counted, Mitt Romney will be elected the 45th President of the United States. Note, my map above still has Iowa up in the air – but is irrelevant at this point.

By the time, the early Midwestern votes come in via exit polls, America should know the trend.

If Romney loses Ohio AND Wisconsin, he is probably toast.

If Obama loses any other state like Pennsylvania or Ohio, the President is done.

Others have offered their, I would say, balanced perspective.

In the final weeks of the presidential campaign, there have been two major schools of thought about who is going to win. One school points to President Obama getting reelected for a very simple reason: polls show Mitt Romney losing Ohio, and all of the states that he would need to win to make up for a loss in Ohio. The other school argues that state polls have been systematically biased against Romney by assuming that Democratic turnout will rival – or even exceed – elevated 2008 levels, when Obamamania was at its peak. Those who believe that Romney will win have pointed to polls showing him ahead among independents, predicted a late break toward the challenger, or pointed to economic fundamentals. To read the conventional wisdom pointing to an Obama win, check out Nate Silver. To read predictions of a Romney win, check out our own Michael Barone, as well as Dan McLaughlin, Ben Domenech, Jay Cost. Also read Ted Frank, who still thinks Obama will likely win, though he makes a strong devil’s advocate argument for how Romney could pull it out.

But, in the end, I think a majority of American voters are not happy with the direction of the country and will willing to vote for a change.

In any case, the majority of the House of Representatives looks safely in the hands of the GOP. The U.S. Senate majority will remain under Democratic Party control.

Balanced or split party government is what Americans desire and that is what they will have after the voting tomorrow.


  • Independent Thinker

    You’re giving Wisconsin to Romney and Virginia!!! Why not give him California too! I can make my map the same way as you did, after all I truly believe the people will re-elect President Obama and not the profiteering, thief and liar that is Mitt Romney.

  • Jeff Young

    Im sorry that your prediction was close you didn’t take into account that a new electorate rejected the far right leanings of the Republican base. Obama won with 309 elector votes and over 3 million in the popular vote.

    • Gregory Flap Cole

      Yeah, I was off quite a bit. Romney under performed and Obama had a very good ground game.

      Most pundits attribute the President’s success to demographics rather than policy choices.