• Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Polling: The Best National Pollsters

    Chart of the best national presidential polls

    Graphic courtesy of John Sides at The Monkey Cage

    As you know, I am really into polling since it gives us a scientific method to measure what is happening in the political world.

    So, let’s take a look at who did the best.

    This list and the graphic above is for the NATIONAL Presidential polls for 2012.

    1. PPP (D)
    1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
    3. YouGov
    4. Ipsos/Reuters
    5. Purple Strategies
    6. NBC/WSJ
    6. CBS/NYT
    6. YouGov/Economist
    10. IBD/TIPP
    11. Angus-Reid
    12. ABC/WP
    13. Pew Research
    13. Hartford Courant/UConn
    15. CNN/ORC
    15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
    15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
    15. FOX News
    15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
    15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
    15. American Research Group
    15. Gravis Marketing
    23. Democracy Corps (D)
    24. Rasmussen
    24. Gallup
    26. NPR
    27. National Journal
    28. AP/GfK

    As everyone, particularly on the right, started criticizing polling models, it drew attention to sampling and methodology. This is a good thing.

    Often campaigns use a recently release poll (even if an outlier) to spin a meme of momentum for their candidate or a lack therof for their opponent.

    Polling averages like Nate Silver’s and Real Clear Politics help aggregate the myriad of national and state oriented polls. I have found it best to look at the averages and it smooths out the results.

    The pollsters WERE pretty accurate – some better than others.

  • Barack Obama,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012

    President 2012 Prediction: Romney Wins Narrow Electoral College Victory

    Romney State of the Race October 23 2012 The Electoral College: State of the Presidential Race

    From 270towin.com

    I am an optimistic sort for the GOP and bucking the conventional wisdom believe that when all the votes are counted, Mitt Romney will be elected the 45th President of the United States. Note, my map above still has Iowa up in the air – but is irrelevant at this point.

    By the time, the early Midwestern votes come in via exit polls, America should know the trend.

    If Romney loses Ohio AND Wisconsin, he is probably toast.

    If Obama loses any other state like Pennsylvania or Ohio, the President is done.

    Others have offered their, I would say, balanced perspective.

    In the final weeks of the presidential campaign, there have been two major schools of thought about who is going to win. One school points to President Obama getting reelected for a very simple reason: polls show Mitt Romney losing Ohio, and all of the states that he would need to win to make up for a loss in Ohio. The other school argues that state polls have been systematically biased against Romney by assuming that Democratic turnout will rival – or even exceed – elevated 2008 levels, when Obamamania was at its peak. Those who believe that Romney will win have pointed to polls showing him ahead among independents, predicted a late break toward the challenger, or pointed to economic fundamentals. To read the conventional wisdom pointing to an Obama win, check out Nate Silver. To read predictions of a Romney win, check out our own Michael Barone, as well as Dan McLaughlin, Ben Domenech, Jay Cost. Also read Ted Frank, who still thinks Obama will likely win, though he makes a strong devil’s advocate argument for how Romney could pull it out.

    But, in the end, I think a majority of American voters are not happy with the direction of the country and will willing to vote for a change.

    In any case, the majority of the House of Representatives looks safely in the hands of the GOP. The U.S. Senate majority will remain under Democratic Party control.

    Balanced or split party government is what Americans desire and that is what they will have after the voting tomorrow.

  • Barack Obama,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012: Latest Key Battleground State Polls for November 5

    Rasmussen Poll Romney 49 vs. Obama 48Here are the latest key battleground state polls:

    The Real Clear Politics average of polls and more are here.

    As I have been saying for about a week now – the Presidential race is very close and we will be in for an exciting night of election returns.

    If the polls are correct, then we will be in for a very late night Tuesday and early morning Wednesday.

  • Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012: Latest Key Battleground State Polls for November 1

    Romney campaigning Oct 31 2012

    Mitt Romney campaigning yesterday in Florida

    Here are the latest key battleground state polls:

    The Real Clear Politics average of polls and more are here.

    The Presidential race is very close – no matter what the spin spews out over the next few days.

    This election can break either way and we may have a very exciting election night next Tuesday.

  • President 2012

    President 2012: The Latest Key Battleground State Polls


    Here are the latest key battleground state polls:

    The Real Clear Politics average of polls and more are here.

  • Barack Obama,  Electoral College,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012

    The Electoral College: State of the Presidential Race

    Romney State of the Race October 23 2012 The Morning Flap: October 23, 2012

    From 270towin.com

    The above graphic is how the Presidential race will turn out in the Electoral College on November the 6th. I have Mitt Romney defeating President Obama 271 Electoral Votes vs. 261 Electoral Votes.

    Most notable recent changes I have made have been the loss of Ohio to the President and the pick up of Colorado for Romney.

    Here is my Electoral College map I made after Mitt Romney chose Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin for his Vice President running mate.

     Electoral College August 11 2012 Does Paul Ryan Help Mitt Romney in the Electoral College?

    From 270towin.com

    To say the least, the race is tight.

    Mitt Romney continues to make a play for Nevada and I understand as of yesterday, he made a very large television ad buy in Northern Nevada – the Reno market.

    Recent polling by Rasmussen and Gallup have Ohio all tied up – well within the margins of error. Ohio could go either way. I think Obama now needs Ohio more than Romney in order to win, which goes against the maxim that GOP Presidential wins go through Ohio.

    Stay tuned as more polls roll in throughout the next few days.

    However, I think, my first map with a 271 Electoral College Vote win for Romney will probably be the end result.

  • Barack Obama,  President 2012

    Obama Grades Himself – INCOMPLETE?

    President Obama gives himself a grade

    Are you frakking kidding me?

    President Obama’s four years in the Presidency have been a colossal failure and WE, Americans, are NOT BETTER OFF than four years ago.

    Here is the video:


    It is funny that Obama is running ads featuring President Bill Clinton.

    President Obama, you are NOT Bill Clinton.

    If American voters, re-elect Obama, they can look forward to another four years of a stagnant economy and increasing unemployment. In addition, more and more state/local governments will be facing bankrupty.

    The choice is clear!

  • Polling,  President 2012

    Poll: Men Prefer Romney – Women Prefer Obama

    Gallup Presidential Poll chart of Men/Women Preferences

    According to the latest Gallup Poll:

    Male voters currently prefer Mitt Romney over Barack Obama by an eight-percentage-point margin, while female voters prefer Obama over Romney by an identical eight points. These gender-gap figures, based on Gallup Daily tracking conducted July 30-Aug. 19, are virtually identical to what they were four months ago.

    The impact of gender on the presidential race has received a renewed focus in recent days after Missouri Republican senatorial candidate Todd Akin’s controversial comments about rape and abortion. It’s too early to tell if this incident and the resulting fallout will have a long-term impact on the presidential gender gap, but from a broad perspective, Gallup’s large sample sizes show a remarkable stability by gender since tracking began in mid-April.

    The gender gap is driven mostly by the underlying differences in party identification. Women are more likely to identify as Democrats and less likely to identify as independents than are men. Within party groups, gender gaps are quite small.

    This is not really a surprise since a gender gap has been known to exist for some time.

    But, will the Todd Akin flap about legitimate rape flip a few more women to the Democrats. It remains to be seen and Akin could still quit the race – and the GOP will do what it can to force him out.

    The gender gap in presidential preferences has not changed over the last four months, with men preferring Romney over Obama by eight points, while women prefer Obama by an identical margin.

    The nature of the gender gap varies significantly across demographic segments. Support for Obama is so strong among black voters that gender makes little difference, but both white and Hispanic women are more likely to support Obama than are men in each of these groups. Women are more strongly for Obama than are men across all age groups, and the gender gap is starkly evident among voters with postgraduate education.

    All in all, women, those under 30, those with postgraduate education, and those who are black and Hispanic give Obama his strongest support. Conversely, Romney receives his strongest support among men who have college degrees but no postgraduate education, and among older and white men.

  • Barack Obama,  Joe Biden,  President 2012

    Video: Joe Biden Living in the Wrong Century With Another Gaffe

    “Slow” Joe Biden has done it again – committed another gaffe.

    Mr. Vice President, we live in the 21st century and have been for over twelve years.

    Here is the video below:

    Hillary may be warming up in the bullpen. But, Obama better move quick.

    President Barack Obama has slightly more than 22 days to drop Vice Presidential Joe Biden from the 2012 Democratic presidential ticket, according to lawyers familiar with the party nominating process. That is, Democrats have until September 6 to formally nominate their presidential ticket which will then be qualified for the 50 state ballots.

  • Barack Obama,  President 2012

    Obama Trying to Rekindle Hope and Change in Iowa?

    I cannot help but laugh at Matt Drudge’s screencap of dry, dying Iowa corn in back of President Obama.

    Today, it has been all Romney and his Vice Presidential running mate Paul Ryan. No Hope and Change exuberant crowds for the President as he embarks on a three day campaign tour of Iowa.

    President Barack Obama often says Iowa holds a special place in his heart. Iowans in 2008 lifted him from underdog presidential hopeful to Democratic caucus winner, and gave him 54 percent of the vote in that year’s general election.

    He began a three-day bus tour through the state today on less sure footing, with polls showing Iowa up for grabs in November. Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney sent his newly-announced running mate, Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, to the Iowa State Fair today to try to steal some of Obama’s thunder.

    The Obama campaign is not playing to big “Hope and Change” crowds.

    Of course, Obama is not running against a lame duck unpopular President George W. Bush (Iraq War and Katrina, among a number of issues) and an “aged” POL in John McCain with an inexperienced Governor of Alaska as the VP.

    But, where has the Obama campaign “magic” gone?

    Down the drain with disastrous policy choices, unemployment above 8 per cent and a stagnant economy.

    With the Romney choice of Ryan, there will be no negative (“stupid POL”) Sarah Palin demonization. Obama and Biden will have to run on their records of governance.

    Good luck with that…..