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share save 120 16 Does Paul Ryan Help Mitt Romney in the Electoral College?

Electoral College August 11 2012 Does Paul Ryan Help Mitt Romney in the Electoral College?

This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com

Why, yes, the selection of Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan as Mitt Romney’s Vice Presidential running mate might just very well help the GOP recapture the White House.

The Electoral College map above illustrates why – namely, Wisconsin and Iowa are moved to red, while Nevada moves to blue from my previous prognostication map which is below.

2012 Electoral College Final Does Paul Ryan Help Mitt Romney in the Electoral College?

Mitt Romney has decided to employ an upper-Midwestern Electoral College vote strategy as opposed to a Hispanic-voter Western states Electoral College strategy. In other words, the key battleground states of Nevada and Colorado will be de-emphasized or even written off (although having just returned from Las Vegas a few days ago, the Romney campaign and Crossroads GPS television ads are omni-present and frequent).

Most political pundits agree that Paul Ryan will help Romney in Wisconsin. With the failed recall of Wisconsin Republican Governor Scott Walker, Wisconsin might be ripe for a flip from Obama to Romney (polling there shows Romney/Ryan tied with Obama). And, who better to team up with Romney than a “Wisconsin favorite son” in Paul Ryan. Iowa is right next door to Wisconsin and will also be in play.

Now, this punditry assumes that other key battleground states like Florida, Virginia, Ohio and Florida will also flip from Obama to Romney/Ryan. But, with the addition of Iowa and Wisconsin, Romney/Ryan could afford to lose Virginia and still reach the 270 Electoral College votes required for victory.

The key battleground states are taking shape – add Iowa and Wisconsin to the mix.

Tonight, the Electoral College numbers are looking a whole lot better for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.

share save 120 16 Does Paul Ryan Help Mitt Romney in the Electoral College?
  • http://twitter.com/MuddyPolitics Wilbur

    You think Ryan’s budget will put Florida in Romney’s column? Florida, once again, is the deciding state (at least for Romney, because Obama’s up in Virginia, Wisconsin and Ohio, and therefore has more options to reach 270).

  • http://flapsblog.com Gregory Flap Cole

     Polling is all over the place now with the summer vacation season.

    Romney/Ryan will be competitive in Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.

  • http://twitter.com/MuddyPolitics Wilbur

    Perhaps, but Obama doesn’t need Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin to win. He needs only one of them. Romney needs all four.

    In Ohio, Obama has maintained a consistent lead for months. With the convention in North Carolina, that could give Dems a boost. And again, because Medicare (and Medicaid) are untouchables, Ryan’s proposals to change them won’t likely do the ticket any favors in Florida. A Rubio or Martinez would have been smart, but Romney’s not going to boost support among rich while males in Florida with Ryan as his veep. He’s going to further isolate himself from Latino voters, making Florida that much harder to win. Do you agree that it’s over if Romney loses Florida? Or Ohio?

    From an electoral college standpoint, Ryan wasn’t a great pick. 

  • http://flapsblog.com Gregory Flap Cole

    Look at the Electoral Map above and you answer your own questions.

    Romney needs Ohio and Florida to win.

    Ryan was a good choice for Romney’s upper Midwest strategy in putting Iowa and Wisconsin in play.

    Obama is not THAT popular in Florida, especially with Jewish voters. They just might stay home which helps Romney. Suburban white voters are firmly in Romney’s corner.

    Besides, Marco Rubio will campaign for Romney in Florida – helping with Hispanic – Cuban- American voters.

    In the meantime, the Dems will try to demonize Ryan as a cutter of Medicare which ObamaCare does as well.

    Nevada and Colorado are also in play. If Hispanics stay home in both states or the economy stays bad, then a 15 EV pick-up for Romney.

  • http://twitter.com/MuddyPolitics Wilbur

    Several things. First, you just created that map at 270towin. Even the conservative leaning Real Clear Politics map gives a more damning view of Romney’s odds. Secondly, you can say that any demographic “just might stay home.” More likely than not, though, it will be the moderate Republicans who do, because they, like the majority of Americans, don’t like Romney, and presidential candidates who aren’t personally liked usually lose.

    Third, Democrats CAN demonize Ryan for wanting to cut Medicare, because his proposed budget turns it into a voucher/grant program that doesn’t keep up cost increases. Obamacare, on the other hand, doesn’t cut Medicare, at least in the sense that it could be demonized. It actually increases benefits while curbing back how large it can grow, which is where the $500 billion in savings come from. Maybe it’s too confusing for Average Joe Six pack, and Democrats usually suck at explaining in real terms what their policies will DO, but you seem like a smart guy. 

    I say you “seem” like a smart guy because you have this pretty well-thought-out blog, but then again you don’t acknowledge that Ryan presents glaring problems for Romney’s already shaky electability.

  • http://flapsblog.com Gregory Flap Cole

    I think you underestimate the problems President Obama has with ObamaCare and the poor economy, especially in Florida.

    The Real Clear Politics averages show that there are a few key battleground states in play for Romney/Ryan. This has been the case since Romney was certain to be the nominee.

    The latest polls show a mixed result for Ryan. But, this is a snap poll over a weekend.

    If Romney would have chosen Sen. Marco Rubio, Romney may or may not have been better off in the Electoral College.

    Romney would have a favorite son in Florida, but would Wisconsin and Iowa be in play?

    How does Ryan compliment Romney in discussing economic issues?

    Paul Ryan will unite the Republican Party and GOP turn out will be higher.

    Will it be enough? That is what we will see in November.

    Frankly, I think the race is a toss-up at present.

  • http://twitter.com/MuddyPolitics Wilbur

    I don’t underestimate the problems President Obama has with Obamacare and the poor economy, particularly in Florida.

    Not at all.

    What I underestimate is Romney’s ability to win Florida even in spite of President Obama’s problems. Romney’s been campaigning now for a year, and intensely against Obama for, what, three months? He hasn’t made a dent, not in Florida, not in Ohio, not in Pennsylvania, not in Michigan (Romney’s home state), and not on the national level, where even the latest Fox News poll shows Obama up 9 percentage points.

    His schtick isn’t working, so Romney moved to the right by picking an alleged fiscal conservative. As for Obamacare, it’s a non-issue. The vast majority (60-something percent) say repealing it is a bad idea, even if about half don’t particularly like it (that probably includes about EVERY hard-core liberal out there who is pissed that it doesn’t go far enough). Furthermore, Romney can’t campaign against Obamacare, because…you know…that whole “Romneycare” thing. (I’m not taking sides here, I’m merely observing that Romney hasn’t campaigned on it. Obviously he’s smart enough to know that it will only draw more attention in the press. Too bad he hasn’t learned that lesson with all the other “issues” he’s having…)

    You’re right in saying that since Romney secured the nomination there are “a few” key battleground states in play. But what are they? Again, even the conservative-leaning Real Clear Politics site moved only one state back to the “swing state” category, that being Ryan’s home state of Wisconsin. But as I’ve said already, without Florida, winning Wisconsin and Iowa don’t matter. (And for the record, Iowa looks bad for Romney, as the unemployment rate is a mere 5.2 percent, and as a farming state, voters there–like in Democratic-leaning, rural Wisconsin–aren’t going to appreciate Ryan’s budget proposal to cut $30 billion, or 20 percent, from current farm and crop insurance subsidies.)

    If Florida isn’t in play, and it likely isn’t considering that Romney won’t even risk campaigning with Ryan there, then Romney’s done.

    Obama’s up in Michigan (+6%), Nevada (+5.3%), and Pennsylvania (+7.0%). If he wins Florida he doesn’t need Wisconsin, or Iowa, or Ohio, or Colorado, or Virginia, or North Carolina, or New Hampshire–all states that he won in 2008.

    Do you really think Obama will lose this many states? Or, if he loses Florida to Romney, that he will also lose even half those states and come up short?

    Obama’s up 6 percentage points over Romney in the latest Florida poll. You can say that one poll doesn’t matter, but the margin of error of this poll, as with the previous two polls where more than 1,000 people were surveyed, gives it significantly more credibility than, say, a Rasmussen poll of 500 people.

    In 2004, John Kerry’s campaign slogan was “America Deserves Better.” Romney doesn’t really have a slogan, but his is just as banal. Better doesn’t win elections. If you can’t point to your opponent and rail his ass for being off his rocker (as opposed to slightly less good than you) you’re going to lose. Romney has been milquetoast in his campaign strategy. “Obama kinda isn’t awesome,” or “The recovery could have been better, so elect me!” That’s about as exciting as a five-hour Elks Club meeting.

    If Romney couldn’t pull ahead on his own, his VP won’t help. They rarely do. They can cause damage, but Americans aren’t voting for vice presidents. They’re voting for presidents. In this case, I think, they’re voting for an incumbent.

  • http://flapsblog.com Gregory Flap Cole

    If your premises are true, then why is Obama spending three days campaigning in Iowa.

    From your observations, he has this race already won and he doesn’t need to campaign.

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  • http://twitter.com/MuddyPolitics Wilbur

    Uhh…because Iowa is a swing state? Because RCP has it listed as a toss-up? Because the key word in “presidential CAMPAIGNs” imply a basic adhesion to the traditional rules of such “campaigns,” that being that you actually must “campaign” in order to win.

    From my observations, Romney hasn’t made any headway since unofficially securing the nomination. It doesn’t mean he won’t. It means he hasn’t, and his selection of Ryan doesn’t appear to be helping.

  • http://flapsblog.com Gregory Flap Cole

    Duh!

    I think Obama is worried that he is losing among those fly over types that cling to their religion and guns. Barry would be correct.

    And, Biden is helping Obama?

    One more gaffe and it is back to sucking up to Bubba to allow Hillary to run as VP.

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