The above graphic is how the Presidential race will turn out in the Electoral College on November the 6th. I have Mitt Romney defeating President Obama 271 Electoral Votes vs. 261 Electoral Votes.
Most notable recent changes I have made have been the loss of Ohio to the President and the pick up of Colorado for Romney.
Here is my Electoral College map I made after Mitt Romney chose Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin for his Vice President running mate.
To say the least, the race is tight.
Mitt Romney continues to make a play for Nevada and I understand as of yesterday, he made a very large television ad buy in Northern Nevada – the Reno market.
Recent polling by Rasmussen and Gallup have Ohio all tied up – well within the margins of error. Ohio could go either way. I think Obama now needs Ohio more than Romney in order to win, which goes against the maxim that GOP Presidential wins go through Ohio.
Stay tuned as more polls roll in throughout the next few days.
However, I think, my first map with a 271 Electoral College Vote win for Romney will probably be the end result.
For the first time, Real Clear Politics and their poll averages has Mitt Romney beating President Obama in the Electoral College.
The map is similar to my map from several months ago.
This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com
But, what is interesting is that a number of states that many have thought in the Team Obama camp, may be in play – most notably Pennsylvania and Michigan.
The battleground state polls after the Monday night debate, should deliver a clearer picture of what will happen on November 6th.
By the way, the magic number of Electoral College votes to win is 270.
This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com
Why, yes, the selection of Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan as Mitt Romney’s Vice Presidential running mate might just very well help the GOP recapture the White House.
The Electoral College map above illustrates why – namely, Wisconsin and Iowa are moved to red, while Nevada moves to blue from my previous prognostication map which is below.
Mitt Romney has decided to employ an upper-Midwestern Electoral College vote strategy as opposed to a Hispanic-voter Western states Electoral College strategy. In other words, the key battleground states of Nevada and Colorado will be de-emphasized or even written off (although having just returned from Las Vegas a few days ago, the Romney campaign and Crossroads GPS television ads are omni-present and frequent).
Most political pundits agree that Paul Ryan will help Romney in Wisconsin. With the failed recall of Wisconsin Republican Governor Scott Walker, Wisconsin might be ripe for a flip from Obama to Romney (polling there shows Romney/Ryan tied with Obama). And, who better to team up with Romney than a “Wisconsin favorite son” in Paul Ryan. Iowa is right next door to Wisconsin and will also be in play.
Now, this punditry assumes that other key battleground states like Florida, Virginia, Ohio and Florida will also flip from Obama to Romney/Ryan. But, with the addition of Iowa and Wisconsin, Romney/Ryan could afford to lose Virginia and still reach the 270 Electoral College votes required for victory.
The key battleground states are taking shape – add Iowa and Wisconsin to the mix.
Tonight, the Electoral College numbers are looking a whole lot better for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.
From Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Larry Sabato lays out the Electoral College analysis for the race for the Presidency in 2012.
The London Olympics isn’t the only venue for world-class sport this year. Political gold is waiting to be won in November, and the only way to grab the top U.S.A. medal is to master Electoral College math. It is both deceptively easy and maddeningly complex. A candidate has to accumulate 270 votes in a tiny universe of 538, but those 538 will be generated by 130 million votes cast in 51 separate entities. A game that looks like checkers is really multi-dimensional chess.
Still, the deep polarization of party politics has simplified the process somewhat. Remarkably, about 40 states — and maybe more — have almost no chance of flipping from one party to the other in the 2012 Electoral College. If President Obama gets his way, the electoral map will look very close to the way it did four years ago; on the other hand, Mitt Romney needs to flip a relative handful of states to take up residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
Obama’s 2008 performance was close to the high-water mark for a modern Democrat: 365 electoral votes (359 under the new 2010 census apportionment). Obama did the seemingly impossible by very narrowly pulling two long-time Republican states, Indiana and North Carolina, to his column and even winning an electoral vote in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, while narrowly losing Missouri and Montana. Those latter two states are widely believed to have moved out of his reach for 2012.
It is a little-known Electoral College tidbit that a president reelected to a second term has always added a state to his coalition that he did not win during his first successful run. Sometimes, in the early days of the Republic, it was a state that didn’t exist during a president’s first bid. But it appears that Obama, if reelected, will break this trend. The only state John McCain won that Obama appears to have a chance of flipping is Arizona, but that is a long shot that would require a massive turnout effort by the Obama campaign among Hispanic voters.
To compare 2012 politics to war for a moment, the current electoral map is akin to World War I’s Western Front trench warfare: Massive amounts of manpower and resources will be needed to move the frontlines even a smidgen. And the less the lines move, the better it is for Obama.
Read all of the post, which is in line with my previous analysis. Watch the video embedded below:
It looks to me that the battle will be waged in even fewer states – Ohio, Virginia, Nevada and Florida. Voters in those states should feel the brunt of all of the intense ad campaigns.
In any case, here is my prediction of how the Electoral College will turn out in November: Romney 275 Vs. Obama 263: