The Electoral College: State of the Presidential Race

Posted Posted in Barack Obama, Electoral College, Mitt Romney, President 2012

Romney State of the Race October 23 2012 The Morning Flap: October 23, 2012

From 270towin.com

The above graphic is how the Presidential race will turn out in the Electoral College on November the 6th. I have Mitt Romney defeating President Obama 271 Electoral Votes vs. 261 Electoral Votes.

Most notable recent changes I have made have been the loss of Ohio to the President and the pick up of Colorado for Romney.

Here is my Electoral College map I made after Mitt Romney chose Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin for his Vice President running mate.

 Electoral College August 11 2012 Does Paul Ryan Help Mitt Romney in the Electoral College?

From 270towin.com

To say the least, the race is tight.

Mitt Romney continues to make a play for Nevada and I understand as of yesterday, he made a very large television ad buy in Northern Nevada – the Reno market.

Recent polling by Rasmussen and Gallup have Ohio all tied up – well within the margins of error. Ohio could go either way. I think Obama now needs Ohio more than Romney in order to win, which goes against the maxim that GOP Presidential wins go through Ohio.

Stay tuned as more polls roll in throughout the next few days.

However, I think, my first map with a 271 Electoral College Vote win for Romney will probably be the end result.

Poll Watch: Romney Takes the Lead in the Electoral College for First Time

Posted Posted in Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Polling

Real Clear Politics Electoral College Poll Map

For the first time, Real Clear Politics and their poll averages has Mitt Romney beating President Obama in the Electoral College.

The map is similar to my map from several months ago.

Electoral College August 11 2012 Does Paul Ryan Help Mitt Romney in the Electoral College?

This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com

But, what is interesting is that a number of states that many have thought in the Team Obama camp, may be in play – most notably Pennsylvania and Michigan.

The battleground state polls after the Monday night debate, should deliver a clearer picture of what will happen on November 6th.

By the way, the magic number of Electoral College votes to win is 270.

Does Paul Ryan Help Mitt Romney in the Electoral College?

Posted 11 CommentsPosted in Barack Obama, Electoral College, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, President 2012

This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com

Why, yes, the selection of Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan as Mitt Romney’s Vice Presidential running mate might just very well help the GOP recapture the White House.

The Electoral College map above illustrates why – namely, Wisconsin and Iowa are moved to red, while Nevada moves to blue from my previous prognostication map which is below.

2012 Electoral College Final Swing States Poll Watch: Obama 47% Vs. Romney 45%

Mitt Romney has decided to employ an upper-Midwestern Electoral College vote strategy as opposed to a Hispanic-voter Western states Electoral College strategy. In other words, the key battleground states of Nevada and Colorado will be de-emphasized or even written off (although having just returned from Las Vegas a few days ago, the Romney campaign and Crossroads GPS television ads are omni-present and frequent).

Most political pundits agree that Paul Ryan will help Romney in Wisconsin. With the failed recall of Wisconsin Republican Governor Scott Walker, Wisconsin might be ripe for a flip from Obama to Romney (polling there shows Romney/Ryan tied with Obama). And, who better to team up with Romney than a “Wisconsin favorite son” in Paul Ryan. Iowa is right next door to Wisconsin and will also be in play.

Now, this punditry assumes that other key battleground states like Florida, Virginia, Ohio and Florida will also flip from Obama to Romney/Ryan. But, with the addition of Iowa and Wisconsin, Romney/Ryan could afford to lose Virginia and still reach the 270 Electoral College votes required for victory.

The key battleground states are taking shape – add Iowa and Wisconsin to the mix.

Tonight, the Electoral College numbers are looking a whole lot better for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.

President 2012: Larry Sabato Lays Out the Electoral College Battle for the White House

Posted 2 CommentsPosted in Barack Obama, Larry Sabato, Mitt Romney, President 2012

From Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Larry Sabato lays out the Electoral College analysis for the race for the Presidency in 2012.

The London Olympics isn’t the only venue for world-class sport this year. Political gold is waiting to be won in November, and the only way to grab the top U.S.A. medal is to master Electoral College math. It is both deceptively easy and maddeningly complex. A candidate has to accumulate 270 votes in a tiny universe of 538, but those 538 will be generated by 130 million votes cast in 51 separate entities. A game that looks like checkers is really multi-dimensional chess.

Still, the deep polarization of party politics has simplified the process somewhat. Remarkably, about 40 states — and maybe more — have almost no chance of flipping from one party to the other in the 2012 Electoral College. If President Obama gets his way, the electoral map will look very close to the way it did four years ago; on the other hand, Mitt Romney needs to flip a relative handful of states to take up residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

Obama’s 2008 performance was close to the high-water mark for a modern Democrat: 365 electoral votes (359 under the new 2010 census apportionment). Obama did the seemingly impossible by very narrowly pulling two long-time Republican states, Indiana and North Carolina, to his column and even winning an electoral vote in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, while narrowly losing Missouri and Montana. Those latter two states are widely believed to have moved out of his reach for 2012.

It is a little-known Electoral College tidbit that a president reelected to a second term has always added a state to his coalition that he did not win during his first successful run. Sometimes, in the early days of the Republic, it was a state that didn’t exist during a president’s first bid. But it appears that Obama, if reelected, will break this trend. The only state John McCain won that Obama appears to have a chance of flipping is Arizona, but that is a long shot that would require a massive turnout effort by the Obama campaign among Hispanic voters.

To compare 2012 politics to war for a moment, the current electoral map is akin to World War I’s Western Front trench warfare: Massive amounts of manpower and resources will be needed to move the frontlines even a smidgen. And the less the lines move, the better it is for Obama.

Read all of the post, which is in line with my previous analysis. Watch the video embedded below:

It looks to me that the battle will be waged in even fewer states – Ohio, Virginia, Nevada and Florida. Voters in those states should feel the brunt of all of the intense ad campaigns.

In any case, here is my prediction of how the Electoral College will turn out in November: Romney 275 Vs. Obama 263:

This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com

President 2012: New Battleground Electoral College Map

Posted Posted in Electoral College, President 2012

From 270 to Win

First Read at MSNBC has a new battleground President 2012 Electoral College projection map and it is embedded above.

Much has changed since we last ran our NBC presidential battleground map back in early November. (Has it REALLY been that long?) The economy and labor market have improved; President Obama’s approval numbers have risen after his debt-ceiling blues; and the Republican primary contest has turned into a knock-down, drag-out fight. And that explains why our Electoral College scorecard has gone from 196 D vs. 195 R (with 147 toss-up electoral votes) back in November, to 222 D vs. 197 R with (119 toss-up). The big changes: We’ve moved Michigan and Wisconsin from toss-up to Lean Dem, reflecting Obama’s improved strength in both states; we’ve moved New Hampshire from Lean GOP to Toss-up; and we’ve moved Iowa from Toss-up to Lean GOP. The map and the changes on it are based on the public and private polling we’ve seen, as well as our conversations with operatives studying the battlegrounds. Again, we do not make our judgments SOLELY on public polling or based on poll averages.

No big deal here.

The race continues to come down to just a few states: New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Nevada.

Here is my take on the race (and, my Electoral College map), some months ago and I don’t think things have changed much.

This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com

However, should Nevada flip to Obama, there would then be a 269 vs. 269 tie and the House of Representatives (GOP controlled and destined to stay that way) will decide the Presidency.

This will either be a close race with my scenario above or President Obama will win an easy re-election.

I guess we will find out, once the Republicans choose their nominee.

President 2012: How Do Gingrich and Romney Look Against Obama in the Electoral College?

Posted 1 CommentPosted in Electoral College, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, President 2012

The 2012 Republican presidential primary battle shifts to Florida, where Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are locked in a tight battle. And, already, Republicans are starting to have visions of a Newt candidacy — and they don’t like what they see. That includes an electoral map that could look quite different — and much worse for them — than the one Romney or another Republican might compete on.

Larry Sabato over at the University of Virginia Center for Politics has this excellent analysis. Long and short of it is: Newt Gingrich is more of a gamble to beat President Obama, should he win the Republican nomination.

To be clear, President Obama is vulnerable. His approval rating – 46% approve, 48.6% disapprove, according to the RealClearPolitics approval average — is middling. And against Mitt Romney, Obama’s vulnerability shows: in Pollster.com’s average of national polling, Obama leads Romney just 46.5% to 45.3%. But against Gingrich, the average tells a very different story — Obama, at 49.9%, leads Gingrich (39.1%) by more than 10 points.

Granted, there are outliers: Gallup on Tuesday had both Romney and Gingrich running evenly with Obama, both down 50% to 48%. But the bulk of the polling data indicates that Romney, at least at this point, is the stronger candidate against Obama.

Why does Romney fare better? Well, the best candidate against Obama remains “generic Republican” — that make-believe person who leads Obama by a single slim point, according to RealClearPolitics. Let’s be honest here: Romney’s the closest thing out there to a generic Republican available. He is not going to steal the presidency away from the incumbent if Obama’s having a good year and the economy is solid. Rather, if the country is ready to make a change, then Romney would be a credible alternative. The national polling numbers bear that out; they also show that Gingrich, at least right now, is not seen as a similarly acceptable alternative.

In other words, in the key battleground states of Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa and Florida, Gingrich looks like a risk to LOSE these states.

Here is my Electoral College Map from some months ago:

This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com

Sobato and his staff make the argument that Gingrich will perform worse (at least he is polling worse now) than Romney in the states, the GOP needs to win to beat Obama.

This may very well be true, and the GOP Establishment have their own maps and are looking at the Senate and House race polls across the nation.

Romney is SAFE and Gingrich MAY underperform Obama.

But, what does the GOP base want in a candidate? A generic Republican, Romney nominee or a firebrand, big idea guy, like Gingrich.

Guess we will find out next tuesday in Florida.