Flap’s California Primary Election Ballot Recommendations

Posted Posted in Election 2012

There is an election in California today (remember except for the Presidential race, the top two vote getters go to the November general election run-off) and here are my picks:

  • President of the United States – Mitt Romney
  • United States Senate – Dianne Feinstein. There is NO Republican candidate that I could possibly recommend voting for over Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Feinstein.
  • California State Senate – Todd Zink
  • California Assembly – Jeff Gorell
  • California Proposition 28 Term Limits – No
  • California Proposition 29 Tobacco Tax – No

The polls are open until 8 PM tonight.

Please exercise your right to vote.

President 2012: Obama Targets a Few Key States

Posted 1 CommentPosted in Election 2012, Electoral College, President 2012

The 2008 Presidential Electoral College Results

Well, DUH.
In addition to his bus trip this week through North Carolina and Virginia, the Wall Street Journal notes President Obama will “will visit another key region, the Mountain West, next week, where Hispanic voters helped put Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico in the president’s column in 2008.”

“The focus on both regions is meant to give the president multiple routes to victory and to reduce his dependence on Ohio and Florida, the giant electoral prizes that have long defined presidential politics. The Obama campaign still plans to fight for both, but its climb has become steeper, as polls show that many working-class white voters have soured on the president.”

” “A campaign official noted that if Mr. Obama were to win all the states Democrat John Kerry took in 2004, he would claim an Electoral College majority in 2012 if he could win both North Carolina and Virginia, or one of those states plus Colorado and Nevada. Democrats won none of those states in 2000 or 2004, but Mr. Obama won all four in 2008.”

Just look at the Electoral College map.

President Obama will have a difficult time winning in Florida, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina, according to recent polls. Nevada will also be a stretch for Obama (the economy has been devastated there), particularly if Mitt Romney is the GOP nominee.

Colorado is doable for the President, but if he loses all of the rest, he is toast.

If Nevada, in the below map, goes to Obama then the race would be a 269 vs. 269 tie and the House of Representatives would decide who the next President is (likely GOP).

You can go over here and run the numbers and scenarios.

Poll Watch: Congressional Approval at 15%

Posted 1 CommentPosted in Congress, Election 2012, Polling

According to the latest Gallup Poll.
Congressional job approval is now 15%, up slightly from the record-tying low of 13% recorded in August, while disapproval is 82%, compared with 84% last month.

These results are based on interviews conducted in a Sept. 8-11 Gallup poll, as President Barack Obama urged Congress to pass his newly announced major jobs plan legislation and amid news coverage of the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

Gallup has recorded only three measures lower than this month’s rating of 15%, although Americans have never responded very positively when asked to rate Congress. The average approval rating since Gallup first began asking Americans to rate Congress in 1974 is 34%. Congressional job approval has generally drifted downward since it reached 39% in March 2009, shortly after President Obama took office. The average congressional job approval rating for 2010 was 19%.

Last month’s 13% approval tied the record low from December 2010. The highest congressional job approval rating measured by Gallup came in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, with a single reading of 84% in October 2001.

I would not want to be an incumbent Representative running next year, period.

Day By Day July 30, 2011 – Principles Balance

Posted Posted in Day By Day, Election 2012

Day By Day by Chris Muir

The American public are sick of the discourse coming from DC on the debt-limit crisis. They are saying a POX to all of the incumbents – both Democrats and Republicans.

Americans are finally understanding that the POLS in Washington and their state Capitols are addicted to spending. They also understand that the debt is ruining this country.

The 2012 election WILL be the intervention.


The Day By Day Archive

House 2012: National Republican Congressional Committee Has Twice as Much Cash as the Democrats

Posted Posted in Election 2012, National Republican Congressional Commitee, Rahm Emanuel

Well, the GOP did retake the House last year (see graphic above) – so, you would expect good fundraising from the special interests.
In the battle for control of the House of Representatives, the National Republican Congressional Committee has twice as much money in the bank as its Democratic counterpart.

The NRCC revealed late Monday that the party committee has $10.6 million cash on hand as of June 1, double the $5.3 million the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reported having in the bank as of the end of last month.

The NRCC reported raising $4.6 million in May and a debt of $7 million. The DCCC brought in $3.8 million last month, with a debt of $6.6 million. The NRCC points out that they have raised $26.8 million so far this year, nearly double what they raised in the first half of 2009.

The Democrats will need to win 24 seats to regain the majority in the House. But, with Rahm Emanuel gone (elected Mayor of Chicago) and moderate Democrats having been largely replaced by Republicans (those recruited by Emanuel) the Democrats will be hard pressed to win back the House in 2012.

The money gap will make it even more difficult and unlikely.

Poll Watch: U.S. Economic Confidence Deteriorates in Early June – Approaches 2011 Weekly Low

Posted 1 CommentPosted in American Economy, Election 2012, Polling

According to the latest Gallup Poll.
A sharp deterioration in the jobs outlook and six straight weeks of Wall Street declines sent Americans’ confidence in the U.S. economy plunging to an average of -35 during the week ending June 12 — a decline of nine percentage points from two weeks ago, and six points worse than it was in the same week a year ago. Economic confidence is now approaching a 2011 weekly low.

I can tell you the economy is very poor in Southern California with many of my friends worried about their jobs. Many have been furloughed this past year or taken pay and/or benefits cuts.

And, polling shows economic expectations are worsening.

The graph:

Nearly half of Americans rated economic conditions as poor last week.

So, what does this all mean?

The American economy WILL be the PRIME issue as we go into the 2012 Presidential election cycle. It is all about the economy and American voters will take out their wrath on the POLS.

Gallup’s Economic Confidence measure surged in early May, coincident with the bump in presidential approval after the death of bin Laden. However, the bin Laden “halo effect” on economic confidence has dissipated in early June, as economic news has become increasingly negative.

Unemployment and underemployment as measured by Gallup have shown no improvement compared with a year ago. In this regard, the government’s job numbers have moved closer to Gallup’s numbers as the U.S. unemployment rate as reported by the BLS worsened from 8.8% in March to 9.0% in April and 9.1% in May.

The sharp drop in economic confidence in early June is consistent with the deterioration in the jobs situation, six consecutive weeks of decline on Wall Street, and fears of a global economic slowdown. Even a recent decline in gas prices to $3.78 a gallon has not been enough to offset the decline in consumer optimism — possibly in part because overall pump prices remain more than $1 per gallon higher than they were a year ago.

The key question going forward is whether the current economic soft patch is going to be modest and transitory or something more significant. That two out of three Americans say the U.S. economy is “getting worse” — approaching the high for the year — suggests many consumers may see something more significant coming in terms of a summer slowdown.