President 2012: State of the GOP Race

Posted Posted in Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, President 2012, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul

Mitt Romney had a big night last night (Super Tuesday Eve) winning 6 of 10 races but….

Mitt Romney eked out a win in Ohio over Rick Santorum which, when coupled with victories for the former Massachusetts governor in Vermont, Massachusetts, Virginia and Idaho, ensured that he would remain the frontrunner for the Republican nomination heading out of Super Tuesday.

And, Romney leads in the actual Republican Party delegate count.

A few more “bad nights” like Super Tuesday and Mitt Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee. With his haul from yesterday, according to AP, Romney now has 415 delegates, Rick Santorum 176, Newt Gingrich 105, and Ron Paul 47 out of the 1,144 needed for the GOP nomination.

To be the frontrunner, you need to kill the frontrunner. And like a poor marksman—or at least an underfunded one—Santorum keeps missing the target. First Michigan, now Ohio. Online betting market Intrade gives Romney a 90% chance of being the GOP nominee. Of course, no one has a mathematical lock on the nomination yet. The fight will continue.


Mitt Romney has not closed the door on Newt, Santorum or Paul. They all will continue in the race and probably draw enough votes and delegates to deny Mitt Romney the 1,144 needed to win the Presidential nomination.

It’s far from over. Despite claiming six state wins last night and upping his delegate count to 404, Mitt Romney still does not have a lock on the nomination—or even a clear path to claiming it if his opponents don’t leave the field.

Consider this: if Mitt wins every remaining all-or-nothing state but one, and half of the remaining proportional delegates, he would likely still fall short of the magic nomination number of 1,144—which would force him to rely on unpledged delegates, the Republican version of the infamous Democratic super-delegates in 2008, to claim his party’s mantle.

After last night’s election results the chances of a “brokered Republican convention” have increased and the nomination of a candidate, like Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels or Bobby Jindal. This will probably not be a bad thing, especially looking at certain polls.

However, if Rick Santorum can beat Newt Gingrich in the upcoming Alabama and Mississippi primary elections, it is possible that Gingrich will quit the race. Santo would then compete one on one with Romney. Santorum might be able to beat Mitt or vice versa. Perhaps they just divide up the remaining delegates.

Should Gingrich prove obstinate and stay in the race (no matter what), it is very likely that NO candidate will have the 1,144 needed on the first nomination ballot. Then, hold onto your hats for backroom deals and the emergence of a “NEW” candidate.

Stay tuned….

President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Close Race in Michigan

Posted Posted in Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Rick Santorum

Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney

A couple of recent polls show a dead heat in Michigan.

We Ask American Poll:

  • Romney – 29%
  • Santorum – 29%
  • Gingrich – 10%
  • Paul – 12%
  • Undecided – 20%

PPP Poll:

The Republican race for President in Michigan has tightened considerably over the last week, with what was a 15 point lead for Rick Santorum down to 4. He leads with 37% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 10% for Newt Gingrich.

The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum’s favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points from 39% to 37%. Romney meanwhile has seen his net favorability improve 10 points from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35) and his vote share go from 24% to 33%.

What we’re seeing in Michigan is a very different story from Florida where Romney surged by effectively destroying his opponent’s image- here Romney’s gains have more to do with building himself up.

Groups Santorum has double digit leads with include Protestants (up 47-30), union members (up 43-23), Evangelicals (up 51-24), Tea Partiers (up 55-20), ‘very conservative’ voters (up 54-23), and men (up 40-28).

Romney is leading the field with women (38-34), seniors (42-34), moderates (35-24), ‘somewhat conservative’ voters (40-34), and Catholics (43-31).

As I have said, if Mitt Romney were to lose Michigan, the state of his youth and family legacy, there will undoubtedly be another candidate who will jump into the race. If Romney wins Michigan by a point or two, then there may also be a challenge.

Take your pick: Mitch Daniels or Jeb Bush.

Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are not polling well in general election match-ups against President Obama. The GOP Establsihment will not stand by and let Santorum and/or Gingrich sink their 2012 prospects.

But, the new candidate will have to move quickly since election deadlines loom in early March.

SNL Parodies of Clint Eastwood’s Half Time in America Are Really Stupid

Posted Posted in NBC, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Saturday Night Live
The first one below is for the third quarter and calls Rick Santorum a “PUSSY” – real mature NBC.

This second one is for the fourth quarter and talks about Newt Gingrich having a big head = more name calling.

The third one, I won’t even bother, since it is just nonsense.

I understand this is supposed to be comedy, but this exercise like many over there at NBC just seem to be simple name calling of Republican POLS. Where is your parody of Obama, Lorne?

Go figure….

President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Trouble Ahead for Romney After Florida?

Posted Posted in Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012

Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney calls voters, as he is seated with volunteers, Tuesday, Jan. 31, 2012, at his campaign office in Tampa, Florida

Apparently so, according to new polls.

Mitt Romney’s headed for a big victory in Florida today but new PPP polls in Missouri and Ohio find the road ahead might be a little bit tougher for him, especially if Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum drops out of the race and leaves a single conservative alternative.

Rick Santorum is leading the way for next week’s ‘beauty contest’ primary in Missouri with 45% to 34% for Romney, and 13% for Ron Paul. Newt Gingrich is not on the ballot for that, but he will be in the picture for Missouri’s caucus and leads the way for that with 30% to 28% for Santorum, 24% for Romney, and 11% for Paul.

In Ohio Gingrich is at 26% to 25% for Romney, 22% for Santorum, and 11% for Paul.

What might be most interesting in both states is what happens in a head to head between Romney and either Gingrich or Santorum:

  • In Missouri Santorum leads Romney 50-37 and in Ohio Santorum leads 45-38.
  • In Missouri Gingrich leads Romney 43-42 and in Ohio Gingrich leads 42-39.

My guess is that Rick Santorum may be prevailed upon to drop out after a while – or simply run out of money. Newt Gingrich has a sugar daddy in Las Vegas and says he will go on to the summer Republican Convention.

A one on one race with Romney is what Newt wants. But, will he get it in time?

This race is NOT over today with a Romney win – no matter how big the victory is.

The results of the polls are here.

President 2012 Poll Watch: Republicans Increasingly Unhappy With GOP Presidential Field

Posted 1 CommentPosted in GOP, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012

According to the latest Pew Research Center.

Republicans evaluating the field of potential GOP presidential nominees are increasingly negative about the current slate of candidates, according to a new poll from the Pew Research Center.

Fifty-two percent of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters said the GOP field was “fair or poor,” an eight percentage-point increase since the question was asked in early January.

Likewise, the number of Republicans who had positive feelings about the candidates dropped. Forty-six percent rated the current field of four candidates “excellent or good,” a drop from the 51% who had that response in January. The GOP field has undergone substantial change since then, with former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and Texas Gov. Rick Perry dropping out of the contest.

Monday’s poll from Pew, which was conducted in partnership with the Washington Post, is the first time since this election cycle the negative response from voters outweighed the positive. Pew began asking the question in May 2011.

I know I am not very pleased with any of the remaining members of the field.

To be honest, I don’t see Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich able to beat President Obama at this point. Neither of them are consistent conservatives, who can articulate a contrasting theme to the left-leaning Democratic President.

Either the GOP should induce a new candidate or two into the mix or be prepared for another four years of President Obama.

President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney Viewed as More Presidential Than Gingrich

Posted Posted in Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012

According to the latest Gallup Poll.

Mitt Romney leads Newt Gingrich, 59% to 39%, in U.S. registered voters’ perceptions that each “has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have.” Romney also has solid advantages for being “sincere and authentic” and able to manage the government effectively. Romney and Gingrich are about tied, however, on understanding the problems Americans face in their daily lives.

These findings are based on registered voters nationally, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted as part of Jan. 27-28 Gallup Daily tracking.

If GOP voters are looking at electability, it appears Romney has a definite edge in general election voter perceptions. Romney is perceived as sincere and Presdiential – Gingrich is NOT.

These are likely the reasons why in head to head general election polls, Romney is close or beating President Obama, whereas Gingrich trails.