President 2012: GOP Debate in Arizona Tonight – A Season Finale?

Posted 1 CommentPosted in GOP, President 2012

GOP Presidential Candidates Set to Square Off in Pivotal Arizona Debate

Well, perhaps – The debate will be the last one before Super Tuesday.

It’s been 26 days since the candidates left the stage at the last CNN debate in Jacksonville, Florida, and the growling hunger pangs of the media have grown louder even as the candidates grow weary.

There have been 19 Republican presidential debates so far, and while some may have debate fatigue — including a few candidates — the forums have nevertheless proved to be illuminating experiences. They have garnered sky-high TV ratings and have become “event” television. They have helped to define several candidates while others fall from grace in front of the live cameras.

The debates return Wednesday night in Mesa, Arizona, as CNN partners with the Republican Party of Arizona to bring America the final debate before Super Tuesday, and what may be the final debate of the season.

The debate will be at 5 PM Pacific time on CNN.

The debate Twitter hashtag is #CNNDebate and I will be proving my comments @Flap.

President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Republican Voters Don’t Want a Brokered Convention

Posted 1 CommentPosted in GOP, Polling, President 2012


According to the latest Gallup Poll.

Republicans by a better than 2-to-1 margin would prefer that one of the four remaining GOP presidential candidates win enough delegates in the primaries and caucuses to secure the nomination, rather than having a brokered convention that could then choose another person to be the party’s presidential nominee.

Republicans prefer to avoid having the presidential candidate chosen at the convention even though a majority say they wish someone else was running for the party’s nomination. Forty-four percent are pleased with the selection of candidates. These results are based on a Feb. 16-19 USA Today/Gallup poll.

I don’t believe most Republicans even understand the nomination process – just who emerges as the victor.

If a stronger candidate comes out of the convention, which I believe will, than the current field – then so be it.

The current GOP Presidential field is weak and after the first ballot when delegates are released to vote for whomever and state delegations make deals, you may see a stronger candidate emerge.

Whoever wants the nomination and whoever can organize their troops on the convention floor will win.

Anyone want to guess who will emerge?

My bet is Jeb Bush or Sarah Palin.

Cheer Up Republicans: More States Go RED in 2011

Posted 2 CommentsPosted in GOP, Polling

According to the latest Gallup analysis.

Democrats have lost their solid political party affiliation advantage in 18 states since 2008, while Republicans have gained a solid advantage in 6 states. A total of 17 states were either solidly Republican or leaning Republican in their residents’ party affiliation in 2011, up from 10 in 2010 and 5 in 2008. Meanwhile, 19 states including the District of Columbia showed a solid or leaning Democratic orientation, down from 23 in 2010 and 36 in 2008. The remaining 15 states were relatively balanced politically, with neither party having a clear advantage.

Here is the chart:

Remember in 2008 after the Obama victory when the LEFT blogs and MSM sites were crowing that the Republican Party had become merely a “regional” party?

Uh, well look again.

Looks to me that the same can be said of the Democratic Party today. New York, Illinois and California and their large urban populations are the major portions of the 2012 Democratic Party – hardly a majority in America.

A more extensive chart of state by state data is here.

So, Republicans cheer up!

The GOP controls the House and may very well win control of the U.S. Senate in November.

As for the Presidency, the race may be tough, especially with an improving economy, but the gains made since 2008 have been staggering. Obama and the Democrats WILL have a race on their hands this summer and fall.

In the last four years, the political leanings of Americans have increasingly moved toward the Republican Party after shifting decidedly Democratic between 2005 and 2008. In 2008, Democrats had one of the largest advantages in party affiliation they have had in the last 20 years, likely because of the unpopularity of President George W. Bush in the latter years of his presidency. Prior to that, the parties were more evenly balanced. So the movement away from the Democratic Party may just be a return to a more normal state of political affairs from an unusual situation, rather than a rejection of the Democrats per se.

The net result of the movement is that the nation looks to be essentially even in terms of its party loyalties headed into a presidential election year. Clearly, President Obama faces a much less favorable environment as he seeks a second term in office than he did when he was elected president.

Also, here is a chart of the states with the most competitive party affiliation (really the key battleground states for 2012):

President 2012 GOP Election Watch: The February Republican Schedule

Posted Posted in GOP, President 2012

Here is the February GOP Presidential calendar:

  • Nevada caucuses – February 4
  • Maine caucuses – February 4-11
  • Minnesota caucuses – February 7
  • Missouri primary – February 7
  • Colorado caucuses – February 7
  • Arizona primary – February 28
  • Michigan primary – February 29

Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul will be very challenged to win any of these contests and derail the Big Mo of Mitt Romney.

But, stranger things have happened in this race.

President 2012 Poll Watch: Republicans Increasingly Unhappy With GOP Presidential Field

Posted 1 CommentPosted in GOP, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012

According to the latest Pew Research Center.

Republicans evaluating the field of potential GOP presidential nominees are increasingly negative about the current slate of candidates, according to a new poll from the Pew Research Center.

Fifty-two percent of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters said the GOP field was “fair or poor,” an eight percentage-point increase since the question was asked in early January.

Likewise, the number of Republicans who had positive feelings about the candidates dropped. Forty-six percent rated the current field of four candidates “excellent or good,” a drop from the 51% who had that response in January. The GOP field has undergone substantial change since then, with former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and Texas Gov. Rick Perry dropping out of the contest.

Monday’s poll from Pew, which was conducted in partnership with the Washington Post, is the first time since this election cycle the negative response from voters outweighed the positive. Pew began asking the question in May 2011.

I know I am not very pleased with any of the remaining members of the field.

To be honest, I don’t see Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich able to beat President Obama at this point. Neither of them are consistent conservatives, who can articulate a contrasting theme to the left-leaning Democratic President.

Either the GOP should induce a new candidate or two into the mix or be prepared for another four years of President Obama.