Registered voters in 12 key swing states are almost evenly split between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in their 2012 presidential election preferences, while giving a 14-percentage-point lead to Obama over Newt Gingrich. Swing-state voters also prefer Obama to Ron Paul and to Rick Santorum. Registered voters nationally express similar preferences, although Paul does slightly better at the national level than he does in the swing states.
These “swing state” results are from the third USA Today/Gallup Swing States poll, based on Jan. 24-28 Gallup Daily tracking of registered voters in 12 states that will be among the most crucial to winning the 2012 presidential election. The states include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. The national results are based on Jan. 27-28 Gallup Daily tracking of registered voters.
If electability against President Obama is an argument to nominate the more moderate Mitt Romney, this is the poll for your evidence.
Also, Mitt Romney is now essentially tied with Gingrich in the Gallup national poll.
Gallup Daily tracking of national Republican registered voters’ preferences from Jan. 24-28 shows that Gingrich and Romney are now essentially tied, with Gingrich at 28% and Romney at 26%. This is the latest development in a race whose lead has swung back and forth several times over the last two months. Gingrich had previously moved back into the top position after strong debate performances and securing a 12-point win in the South Carolina primary.
Prior to that, Romney had led by as much as 24 points, which itself followed as much as a 15-point Gingrich lead in early December.
This race is so fluid and dynamic. After tomorrow night’s Florida primary election, it will probably change again.