Barack Obama,  President 2012

President Election 2012: Why Obama Could Survive

January 23, 2011 /

2008 Electoral College Results Map

Chris Cillizza over at the Washington Post has an Electoral College/Obama re-election analysis that I did many weeks ago – the Presidential race for 2012 is really ONLY in a few key battleground states.

When then-Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) won the White House in 2008, it was widely regarded as a landslide victory over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

Two years later, though, many analysts and observers have forgotten the breadth of Obama’s victory in the wake of the devastating and across-the-board (not to mention down-the-ballot) losses the Democratic Party suffered in the 2010 midterms.

And yet, a detailed examination of the national map heading into 2012 suggests that the president still sits in a strong position for reelection – able to lose half a dozen (or more) swing states he carried in 2008 and still win the 270 electoral votes he needs for a second term.

Read Cillizza’s analysis but it really is just common sense and the conventional wisdom.

Here is my analysis and the difference is I name all of the KEY BATTLEGROUND states and their electoral vote changes due to the census.

Before, I identified the key battleground states (pre-census release):

  • Ohio – 20 (electoral votes): -2 after reapportionment
  • Virginia – 13
  • Colorado – 9
  • Florida -27: +2 after reapportionment
  • Nevada – 5: +1 after reapportionment
  • Wisconsin -10
  • New Hampshire – 4
  • Indiana – 11
  • North Carolina – 15

The states Chris Cillizza did NOT mention in his piece are Colorado, New Hampshire and Wisconsin – which have trended red in 2010, and may very well be more red or leaning that way in 2012.

If all of the key battleground states listed above were to flip to the Republican candidate a total of 115 electoral votes would shift. The GOP candidate would win 285 Electoral votes Vs. 250 for Obama (provided Obama wins all of the states he won in 2008). 270 votes are needed to win.

President Obama has a road to victory in 2012 but I do not think it will be as easy as Cillizza makes it out to be and the Presidential election will be concentrated in just a few states – the ones listed above.

Now, can the Republican Party nominate a candidate that can compete and beat Obama in these states?