CA-36: Are Janice Hahn and Craig Huey Running for a Seat that May Disappear in California Redistricting?

When the independent redistricting commission redraws political lines this summer, experts say it’s likely that the 36th will lose its strongly Democratic northern region around the Los Angeles International Airport. In return, the district could regain the Republican-majority Palos Verdes Peninsula.

To protect incumbent Democratic Rep. Jane Harman, who resigned in February to lead a Washington think tank, the Peninsula was sliced off the district 10 years ago and connected by thin slivers of Long Beach and San Pedro to Rep. Dana Rohrbacher’s Orange County-based 46th Congressional District.

Besides a shifting border, there’s also a second scenario, where most of the current 36th District’s territory is collapsed, possibly into the 37th Congressional District of Rep. Laura Richardson, a Long Beach Democrat who represents Carson.

Such a move could be a way to account for the population shift to Riverside and San Bernardino counties in the 2010 U.S. census, according to Fernando Guerra, director of the Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University.

“In other words, L.A. County has to lose one seat,” Guerra said.

The nonpartisan California Citizens Redistricting Commission is set to issue draft maps on June 10, before the July election, setting up an awkward possibility for Hahn and Huey.

“You literally may be running for a seat that no longer exists,” Guerra said.

Final maps are due Aug. 15, and the first election reflecting the reapportioned boundaries will be the June 2012 primary.

If Harman’s old district does pick up the Palos Verdes Peninsula, surrendering the area around LAX, the change would be enough to make an incumbent’s path to election uncertain.

In 1998, when the Peninsula was a part of the 36th District, voters sent Republican Steve Kuykendall to the office.

The Democrat who lost?

Hahn, who ran for the seat to replace Harman when the congresswoman made a failed bid for California governor.

The California economy is very poor and especially poor in this area of Los Angeles County. Businesses have closed and moved out of the state. Real estate values have plummeted. And, most importantly, the election turnout will be low due to the July election date. This will favor an “outside” candidate and one who can turn out the GOP in the district.

Craig Huey has a definite chance in July to surprise and certainly again in 2012, if he doesn’t.