Iran Nuclear Watch: War Games – But Why Worry About Iran?
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad delivers his speech during a gathering of commanders of Basij, a paramilitary volunteers group affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, May 7, 2006. The Iranian parliament threatened in a letter to U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan Sunday to force the government to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty if the United States continued pressuring Tehran to suspend uranium enrichment.
Powerline: Contra Iran
Jerusalem Post editor David Horovitz conducts an interesting interview with “a longtime Iranian-born opposition activist who, among other efforts, is a member of the National Union for Democracy in Iran, a three-year-old, US-based opposition group…” Horovitz’s introduction and the interview itself are interesting in their entirety.
Powerline: What Can the Mullahs Do?
This post by Austin Bay is a useful follow-up to Scott’s discussion of Iran below. Austin has war-gamed the possibility of an Iranian attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, through which 20% of the world’s oil production passes. The results are interesting, to say the least. To me, the most optimistic observation, by one of Austin’s commenters, is that China is largely dependent on oil that flows through the Strait and would not look kindly on disruption of its supply.
Austin Bay: UPDATED: Iran’s nuclear mullahs and the UN: closer to sanctions?/A look at the Strait of Hormuz
Saturday, May 6: Fox is reporting that Russia and China may support the US and UK resolution, as long as the UN continues to stress “diplomacy.†A Chapter 7 resolution allows for sanctions or war or both.
This recent South African update claims US patience is wearing thin. Meanwhile, Iran is rejecting EU criticism of its human rights record and is once again threatening to disrupt oil tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. In the late 1980s Joe Balkosi and I designed a game titled :Light Division: The Strait of Hormuz.†The game examined several US, US coalition, Iranian andRussian military scenarios focusing on the Straits of Hormuz. (Here’s a link to an earlier post of mine on that game and on Iranian options from March 6, 2005.)
UPDATE: This map and background data from fas.org are very useful. This AFP report from April 4 has more on the Kowsar. And here is the link I was looking for earlier — fas.org on the Chinese C-801. It mentions the C-801’s similarity to the Exocet. Note it mentions that Iran is developing a C-801 knock-off. The fas.org article says the missile is named the “Karus.†The warhead is estimated to be 165 kilograms.
UPDATE 2: NewsMax ran this Hormuz piece in March.
All interesting pieces but……..
Flap is a civilian and Flap does NOT worry about what Iran’s Ahmadinejad and the Mullahs do sans nuclear weapons.
Why?
If Iran were to provoke a military operation, a state of war would exist and the United States would use its nuclear arsenal to destroy Iran’s military capability, its nuclear facilities and vaporize hundreds of thousands of its citizens. Iran would cease to exist.
Anyone going to stop the USA?
NOPE.
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The Natanz uranium enrichment complex in Natanz is pictured in this January 2, 2006 satellite image.
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