Giuliani Notes: Fred Thompson Eroding Rudy’s Support?
New Iowa, New Hampshire Numbers
Did all that access McCain gave to local press on the Straight Talk Express last week pay off?
ARG has new poll numbers out today (methodology and trendlines in the links) from Iowa and New Hampshire that Dick Bennett, the group’s pollster, says reflect two things. First, including Fred Thompson in the mix, which Bennett did, takes support away from Rudy. Second, McCain’s hitting the trail in earnest last week in the two early states has helped him reclaim some Independents who had strayed.
In Iowa, ARG now has McCain and Rudy tied at 29%, with Thompson at 12% and Romney at 10%. 11% of likely caucus goers — a notoriously tough universe to sample — said they were undecided. McCain leads Giuliani 39%-30% among Independents in the Hawkeye State.
In New Hampshire, ARG has McCain at 23% to Rudy’s 19%. Romney gets 17%, Newt 11% and Thompson 10%. 15% of likely Granite State primary voters are undecided. Among Indepdenents there — the folks who powered the maverick to victory in the 2000 New Hampshire primary — McCain’s lead over Rudy grows to 33%-22%.
Lets look at the numbers:
A Fred Thompson candidacy does not bode well for Mayor Giuliani in New Hampshire or Iowa.
But, will Thompson run?
Perhaps – especially since he is polling well without even campaigning.
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