Now that the smoke has cleared in Lebanon and Israel, let’s assess quickly the situation.
Israel had two major goals: get rid of Hezbollah’s rockets and get rid of Hezbollah. It is unclear that they will achieve either in the long run.
If the war is over, as of today, they achieved neither.
The final chapter of this round of a protracted conflict now depends upon the UN. Destiny has been in their hands before.
According to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the UN is a tool of the US, so we should be happy that the UN is on the way. But Israelis have little regard for the UN, and their impressions are based on UNIFILs 28 year record on this border.
The record of UNIFIL, for Israelis, was disastrous. They “monitored†the area “between†Israel and Hezbollah for the last 28 years; allowing Hezbollah to dig in and arm up.
By not even changing the name of UNIFIL, Kifi Annan and the UN again show either a deaf ear or a bias against Israel. Names do have meaning. UNIFIL is a word spit with distain and not pronounced in Israel.
So is Hezbollah disabled or without the rockets? The day before the “cease fire†went into effect Hezbollah launched 250 rockets into Israel. There are Hezbollah rockets still in Lebanon, and if little gremlins move them northward and out of the zone to be monitored by the UN in the next few days would you be surprised?
Twenty four hours and more after the start of the cease fire, what are peiople saying about the prospects of implimenting the intentions of the UN?
The French commander of UNIFIL, Maj.-Gen. Alain Pellegrini, said Tuesday that his peacekeeping force will not attempt to disarm Hizbullah. Dealing with Hizbullah, Pellegrini said, was an internal Lebanese matter, and the 15,000 UN troops to be deployed under his command would not get involved. It was up to Lebanon, he said, to deploy its army in the south and deal with the Hizbullah presence.
So will Lebanon’s government disarm Hezbollah? No.
Hizbullah will not hand over its weapons to the Lebanese government but rather refrain from exhibiting them publicly, according to a new compromise that is reportedly in the works between Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Seniora and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
And will Hezbollah “disappear� Hezbollah are the people of southern Lebanon. They aren’t going anywhere. They are teachers, family men, lawyers. They run the schools, the elderly centers, the trash removal system. And they are financed and armed by Syria and Iran. What has changed that? Some paperwork in New York? Syria and Iran bet on an unknown and now see that unknown as a winner. They’ll double the bet.
Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, emerged from the shadows of a leader before the with a strong but limited following within Lebanon to become, in just over a month, one of the more important political figures of Lebanon and one of the leaders of the Arab world’s radical wing.
Before the war, Hassan Nasrallah was the one who made sure the garbage went out, the aged were cared for, there were schools for the children.
During the war Hassan Nasrallah, as seen by Arabs, is the man who faced down Israel and the Great Satan.
Before this war, few respected moderates in Beirut or in the greater Arab world paid much attention to Nasrallah. Now his stock has soared. He is the darling of the man on the Arab street for not just keeping his forces in the field for more than thirty days with the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) but by apparently winning.
By appearing almost daily on al-Manar (translated: “The Beacon,” the name of Hezbollah TV), al-Jazeera and al-Arabiya TV during the conflict saying, “We have not been harmed,” Nasrallah made himself the most important face of the war, eclipsing everyone in the governments of Israel and Lebanon.
The degree of lasting political clout Hassan Nasrallah and Hezbollah have gained remains to be seen. But there is a gain, not a loss.
There will be another war or more wars. Most everyone on both sides of the border believes that.
And the people of Israel are in shock. The respected IDF did not achieve a grand sweep of the enemy: an outcome Israelis have come to expect. The Prime Minister is taking tremendous heat in the media. We can expect him to be defeated politically before long. He didn’t allow the foreign minister to go to the UN; signaling a major rift in the government during the war. A few generals have already been pushed aside and probably more to follow.
The “Shock and Awe†promised by the Israeli Air Force did not ruin Hezbollah or the rockets: only the Lebanese infrastructure. This means every Lebanese man woman and child blames Israel (not Hezbollah).
The International community needs to play a large role in the reconstruction of Lebanon. Already damage estimates top $2B. If Hezbollah is allowed to lead the reconstruction effort, the hearts and minds of the Lebanese (and a lot of other Arabs) will be forever lost to the west.
One Comment
john Carey
Hezbollah Won
By John E. Carey
August 15, 2006
Now that the smoke has cleared in Lebanon and Israel, let’s assess quickly the situation.
Israel had two major goals: get rid of Hezbollah’s rockets and get rid of Hezbollah. It is unclear that they will achieve either in the long run.
If the war is over, as of today, they achieved neither.
The final chapter of this round of a protracted conflict now depends upon the UN. Destiny has been in their hands before.
According to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the UN is a tool of the US, so we should be happy that the UN is on the way. But Israelis have little regard for the UN, and their impressions are based on UNIFILs 28 year record on this border.
The record of UNIFIL, for Israelis, was disastrous. They “monitored†the area “between†Israel and Hezbollah for the last 28 years; allowing Hezbollah to dig in and arm up.
By not even changing the name of UNIFIL, Kifi Annan and the UN again show either a deaf ear or a bias against Israel. Names do have meaning. UNIFIL is a word spit with distain and not pronounced in Israel.
So is Hezbollah disabled or without the rockets? The day before the “cease fire†went into effect Hezbollah launched 250 rockets into Israel. There are Hezbollah rockets still in Lebanon, and if little gremlins move them northward and out of the zone to be monitored by the UN in the next few days would you be surprised?
Twenty four hours and more after the start of the cease fire, what are peiople saying about the prospects of implimenting the intentions of the UN?
The French commander of UNIFIL, Maj.-Gen. Alain Pellegrini, said Tuesday that his peacekeeping force will not attempt to disarm Hizbullah. Dealing with Hizbullah, Pellegrini said, was an internal Lebanese matter, and the 15,000 UN troops to be deployed under his command would not get involved. It was up to Lebanon, he said, to deploy its army in the south and deal with the Hizbullah presence.
So will Lebanon’s government disarm Hezbollah? No.
Hizbullah will not hand over its weapons to the Lebanese government but rather refrain from exhibiting them publicly, according to a new compromise that is reportedly in the works between Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Seniora and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
And will Hezbollah “disappear� Hezbollah are the people of southern Lebanon. They aren’t going anywhere. They are teachers, family men, lawyers. They run the schools, the elderly centers, the trash removal system. And they are financed and armed by Syria and Iran. What has changed that? Some paperwork in New York? Syria and Iran bet on an unknown and now see that unknown as a winner. They’ll double the bet.
Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, emerged from the shadows of a leader before the with a strong but limited following within Lebanon to become, in just over a month, one of the more important political figures of Lebanon and one of the leaders of the Arab world’s radical wing.
Before the war, Hassan Nasrallah was the one who made sure the garbage went out, the aged were cared for, there were schools for the children.
During the war Hassan Nasrallah, as seen by Arabs, is the man who faced down Israel and the Great Satan.
Before this war, few respected moderates in Beirut or in the greater Arab world paid much attention to Nasrallah. Now his stock has soared. He is the darling of the man on the Arab street for not just keeping his forces in the field for more than thirty days with the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) but by apparently winning.
By appearing almost daily on al-Manar (translated: “The Beacon,” the name of Hezbollah TV), al-Jazeera and al-Arabiya TV during the conflict saying, “We have not been harmed,” Nasrallah made himself the most important face of the war, eclipsing everyone in the governments of Israel and Lebanon.
The degree of lasting political clout Hassan Nasrallah and Hezbollah have gained remains to be seen. But there is a gain, not a loss.
There will be another war or more wars. Most everyone on both sides of the border believes that.
And the people of Israel are in shock. The respected IDF did not achieve a grand sweep of the enemy: an outcome Israelis have come to expect. The Prime Minister is taking tremendous heat in the media. We can expect him to be defeated politically before long. He didn’t allow the foreign minister to go to the UN; signaling a major rift in the government during the war. A few generals have already been pushed aside and probably more to follow.
The “Shock and Awe†promised by the Israeli Air Force did not ruin Hezbollah or the rockets: only the Lebanese infrastructure. This means every Lebanese man woman and child blames Israel (not Hezbollah).
The International community needs to play a large role in the reconstruction of Lebanon. Already damage estimates top $2B. If Hezbollah is allowed to lead the reconstruction effort, the hearts and minds of the Lebanese (and a lot of other Arabs) will be forever lost to the west.
For more see:
http://extendedremarks.blogspot.com/
http://peace-and-freedom.blogspot.com/