Giuliani Notes: Rudy Sitting Pretty

AP: Early 2008 polls offer important clues

Hillary Rodham Clinton’s lead in the early polls may not be that reassuring if history is any guide. Republican hopeful Rudy Giuliani, however, is sitting pretty.

For at least three decades, Republicans have been far better than Democrats in early polls at getting behind the candidates who end up winning the party’s presidential nomination.

Republicans have picked the early front-runner in seven of the past 10 elections, according to Gallup polling. In the other three elections, Republican incumbents cruised to re-election.

Why?

The major GOP donors and voters soon realize that “beating a dead horse” i.e. supporting a long-shot candidate is fruitless and drains away resources that can be used against the Democrats in a general election.

It is in the GOP’s best interests to rally around one candidate EARLY and raise the campaign funds necessary to take or retain the White House.

Are we reaching this point in the 2008 race?

Perhaps, especially with most of the major states moving their primaries up to February 2008.

When the polls don’t look favorable, the campaign money dries up and the campaign is over.

By the way, the betting money has shifted from McCain to Rudy.