California Field Poll: 2008 Republican Primary

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani currently holds a twelve-point lead over Arizona Senator John McCain (36% to 24%) for the 2008 Republican nomination among potential voters in California’s February 5th primary election. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is a distant third at 7%. No other Republican candidate receives more than 4% of voter preferences.

For some months the political press has been focusing primarily on the efforts of Giuliani, McCain and Romney among the likely Republican presidential candidates. Others who have been getting less attention are Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo, California Congressman Duncan Hunter, Kansas Senator Sam Brownback, Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul.
In recent weeks there has been growing speculation in political circles about the possibility of Newt Gingrich, former Georgia Congressman, and/or Fred Thompson, former Tennessee Senator, becoming candidates.

When Gingrich and Thompson are included as possible candidates, Giuliani still leads with 29% of the preferences, McCain remains in second at 21%, while Gingrich places third with 9% and Thompson is tied with Romney at 7%.

Rudy is still California dreamin’. Let’s look at some of the poll details.

Graphic courtesy of the Press-Enterprise

Voter Images of the Leading Candidates:

Chances of Voting for each Candidate:

General Election Match-up:

Note: Giuliani is most popular among likely primary voters in Northern California, people older than 50, and those who are not born-again Christians, according to the poll.

A good California poll for Rudy except with the match-up with the Democrats. Rudy has to work on capturing more Republicans and Independents.

A few points movement in either group will make California be in Electoral College GOP play for the first time since Ronald Reagan (in 1984).

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