Giuliani Notes: California Dreamin’ – Rudy Leads California by Double Digits in Latest Survey USA Poll
Survey USA: Giuliani Is Still Lead Wagon In CA GOP Gold Rush
Giuliani Is Still Lead Wagon In CA GOP Gold Rush, but with Fred Thompson “In,” Rudy Lead Trimmed to 13 Pts: 9 Months to the newly accelerated and suddenly critical California Republican Primary, the contest tightens, according to the first poll of likely California Republican Primary voters following last week’s California debate, conducted by SurveyUSA exclusively for its media clients in the West.
Former New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani is at 34% today, 05/07/07, 13 points ahead of Arizona Senator John McCain, who finishes in 2nd place at 21%. But: compared to a SurveyUSA poll of likely CA GOP Primary voters one month ago — the 04/02/07 release did not name Actor Fred Thompson — Giuliani is today down 9 points, from 43% then to 34% now. McCain is down 3 points, from 24% then to 21% now. Former MA Governor Mitt Romney, who finishes 3rd today at 12%, is up 5 points, from 7% a month ago. Actor Fred Thompson is effectively tied with Romney for 3rd place today, at 11% today.
Among California’s Republican Conservatives, 30% vote Giuliani, 16% vote McCain, 16% vote Romney, 13% vote Thompson and 13% vote for former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who is not a declared candidate.
Among CA Republican Moderates, Giuliani runs 9 points stronger than he does among Conservatives, at 39%; McCain runs 13 points stronger, at 29%; Romney runs 8 points weaker, at 8%, Thompson runs 6 points weaker, at 7%; and Gingrich runs 7 points weaker, at 6%.
Giuliani runs strongest among those in favor of stem-cell research, among pro-choice Republicans, among Hispanic Republicans, and among those who support same-sex marriage.
The GOP NUTS:
Rudy – 34%
McCain – 21%
Romney – 12%
Thompson – 11%
Gingrich 9%
More break-out demographics:
Rudy continues to lead California in double digits. Although his lead has decreased 9 points, Hizzoner maintains a commanding presence in the Golden State. With New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and California all moving their GOP primaries to February 5, the Mayor could well have the nomination wrapped up by the February 12 regional primaries.
The California question is: Will McCain and Romney “give up contending” California to concentrate on Iowa and New Hampshire?
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