Giuliani Notes: Rudy 29% McCain 23% Thompson 12% Romney 8% in Latest National Gallup Poll

The Gallup Poll: New Yorkers Continue to Lead 2008 Nomination Contests

Giuliani’s favorable image holding steady with Republicans

The national front-runners for the 2008 presidential nominations continue to be former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani for the Republican Party and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Party.

According to a May 10-13, 2007, Gallup Poll, 29% of Republicans favor Giuliani for his party’s nomination, giving him a six-point lead over John McCain, with 23%. Clinton holds a nine-point lead in the Democratic race over second-place contender Barack Obama, 35% vs. 26%.

In early March, and again in early April, Giuliani led McCain by more than 20 points, making him a more formidable front-runner than he appears to be in the current poll. More recently, Giuliani held a 14-point lead over McCain, 34% to 20%, in early May. But neither his five-point decline to 29% in the latest poll, nor McCain’s three-point increase, are statistically significant changes. Thus, it is important to wait until the next poll to see whether the race has truly tightened, or whether the apparently closer race merely reflects random variation because of normal sampling error.

The GOP NUTS:

Rudy is in a good position going into the late Spring and early Summer. He may have gone down a little in the latest polling cycle and McCain may have gained but the changes may not be statistically significant.

Let’s look at head to head comparisons: