Hillary Clinton Watch: The Pennsylvania Primary – What Hillary Needs

Democratic presidential candidate Senator Hillary Clinton and former President Bill Clinton hug at a rally in Philadelphia, April 21, 2008.

The Politico has a piece up about what to watch for throughout the day during the Pennsylvania primary election.

Check for turnout at 1 p.m

A big EARLY push in Philadelphia bodes well for Obama.

Donâ€™t be fooled by early results

Cities and suburbs count returns quickly. Should Hillary have an early lead though, it could be the sign of a blow-out.

Follow the undecideds

Watch Central Pennsylvania, where the largest pool of undecided voters have polled.

Watch these towns and neighborhoods

Obama should be aiming for at least 55 percent turnout in African American wards in Philadelphia, 60 percent in the upscale white neighborhoods of Center City Philadelphia, and 70 percent in Lower Merion, the wealthy Philadelphia suburb with large numbers of highly educated and increasingly liberal voters.

Clinton needs strong turnout in Northeast Philadelphia, a string of largely white, blue collar neighborhoods, and in working-class Philadelphia suburbs such as Bensalem and Bristol.

Key counties to keep an eye on

In order for Clinton to win a decisive victory of 10 points or more, she needs to win two-thirds of the votes in a group of eight industrial-oriented counties, each of which has 55,000 or more registered Democrats. Those counties are Lackawanna (Scranton) and Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre) in the Northeast, Erie in the Northwest, Cambria County (Johnstown), and the Pittsburgh-area counties of Westmoreland, Fayette, Beaver, and Washington.

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It will be a long night of counting ballots and punditry unless Hillary shows early blow-out strength. A win by 5-8 points will carry her on to North Carolina (which she will lose) and then on to the next battleground – Indiana.

Stay tuned…….