links for 2008-11-01

Speaking out recently against Proposition 8, the proposed constitutional amendment that would ban gay marriage, former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown made an appeal for the importance of protecting the rights of same-sex couples. And then he urged his audience to vote yes on the proposition.

Brown misspoke. He intended to advocate a no vote. But he isn't alone in confusing which side is which. As election day nears, both supporters and opponents of Proposition 8 worry that voters will be confused by a choice that can seem counterintuitive: Voting no on the initiative means voting yes on gay marriage, while voting yes means gay marriage would be disallowed.
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Counterintuitive thanks to the California Supreme Court's ruling and Jerry Brown's ballot language.

Over the past six weeks, a proposed constitutional amendment that would end same-sex marriage in California has gained substantial ground but still trails by a five-point margin heading into Tuesday's election.

A new Field Poll shows Proposition 8, one of the most closely watched state ballot measures in years, is supported by 44 percent of likely voters. Forty-nine percent oppose it, and 7 percent are undecided.

In the last Field Poll, released Sept. 18, the measure was behind by 17 points.
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The margin of error is 3 points and there is the homosexual "Bradley effect" of 7 points. Proposition 8 may win by a few points but it will depend on GOTV.

The sponsors of a ballot initiative that would make same-sex marriage illegal in California are using quotes by Barack Obama to drum up support for Proposition 8, even though Obama opposes the measure.

A mailer sent out by the ProtectMarriage.com coalition this week features a large picture of Obama. The mailer also presents statements the Illinois senator made this year indicating that he personally thinks marriage should be limited to a woman and man.

One of the quotes, "I'm not in favor of gay marriage," came from Obama's April appearance on "Hardball with Chris Matthews." During that interview, Obama went on to say "…but I'm in favor of a very strong civil union." The second was from an August forum at Saddleback Church in La Mesa, where Obama said that as a Christian, he considered marriage "a sacred union."
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An effective ad for sure. Didn't Obama say he was against gay marriage?

Now, we will see if this is a one-day blip, or whether it is a trend, or an indication that the independents are indeed breaking to McCain. I had been speculating for a short while that those answering "undecided" were mostly "I don't like Obama, and will vote for the cranky old guy, but don't want to tell anyone."
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McCain might yet make this race competitive. Hold on to your hat.

"After having stolen the last two elections, the Republican Mafia…"

"If Obama loses it will spark the second American Civil War. Blood will run in the streets, believe me. And it's not a coincidence that President Bush recalled soldiers from Iraq for Dick Cheney to lead against American citizens in the streets."

"Bush has transformed America into a police state, from torture to the imprisonment of reporters, to the Patriot Act."
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Gad…what a nutter

The election is still winnable for McCain. Remember that pollsters are factoring into their results an assumed higher black turnout and higher youth turnout than normal. Also, remember that Republican voters–especially this year, with Democratic politicians attributing opposition to Obama to racism or redneck prejudice–are far coyer about answering pollsters.
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Robert Novak is often wrong but worth a listen and glad he is around for perhaps his last Presidential race.

Pollster John Zogby: "Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. "Obama's lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on."
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Is there hope?

Muscleman-turned-actor-turned-politician Arnold Schwarzenegger called on Barack Obama to beef up his his policies — and his body — at a high-voltage campaign rally for Republican John McCain Friday.

Schwarzenegger, the Hollywood action hero who is now the Republican governor of California, delighted a crowd of several thousand at a McCain campaign event in Ohio by ridiculing both Obama's policies and his slender physique.
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About damn time Arnold did something for the GOP. Flapmight even consider voting for Proposition 11 now.

Barack Obama's aunt, a Kenyan woman who has been quietly living in public housing in Boston, is in the United States illegally after an immigration judge rejected her request for asylum four years ago, The Associated Press has learned.

Zeituni Onyango, 56, referred to as "Aunti Zeituni" in Obama's memoir, was instructed to leave the United States by a U.S. immigration judge who denied her asylum request, a person familiar with the matter told the AP late Friday. This person spoke on condition of anonymity because no one was authorized to discuss Onyango's case.

Information about the deportation case was disclosed and confirmed by two separate sources, one of them a federal law enforcment official. The information they made available is known to officials in the federal government, but the AP could not establish whether anyone at a political level in the Bush administration or in the McCain campaign had been involved in its release.
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October surprise?