RNC Chair Watch: Who Will Win?

The Republican National Chairmanship race culminates today with an election. C-Span will begin live television coverage at 10:30 AM EST.

Republicans are looking for a national party chairman to lead a GOP rebirth after losing control of Congress and the White House in back-to-back elections.

Their choice when they vote Friday was to give former President George W. Bush’s hand-picked party chief, Mike Duncan, a shot at turning around the Republican Party by re-electing him to a second-two year term or choosing a fresh face from one of his four challengers.

No one was expected to get the required majority of the votes on the first balloting by the 168-member Republican National Committee.

Those challenging Duncan are former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, South Carolina GOP Chairman Katon Dawson and Michigan GOP Chairman Saul Anuzis.

A fifth — former Tennessee GOP Chairman Chip Saltsman — dropped out of the race on Thursday with little explanation, saying only in a letter to RNC members: “I have decided to withdraw my candidacy.

So, who will win?

It’s anybody’s guess.

GOP insiders say Friday’s contest to elect the next chairman of the Republican National Committee will be a long and drawn-out affair, with multiple ballots necessary to determine the winner.

The RNC’s voting rules require a candidate to collect a simple majority of 85 votes in order to claim victory. In the absence of a consensus choice among the field of five candidates, though, the election appears destined for numerous ballots, involving many hours of deliberations punctuated by intense lobbying and political horse-trading between votes.

Public estimates of the five candidates’ support have tended to place incumbent RNC Chairman Mike Duncan at the head of the pack, followed by former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele and South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Katon Dawson, with Michigan Republican Party Chairman Saul Anuzis and former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell behind them.

Televison coverage begins on C-Span in little less than an hour and there will be extensive coverage from the RNC Winter Meeting Floor on Twitter. Follow Flap here and Follow the hashtag #RNCCHAIR here for up to the minute commentary.

Flap has endorsed Michael Steele for the Chairmanship.

Stay tuned…..