links for 2009-02-03

Sen. Judd Gregg will be nominated as the new Commerce secretary Tuesday morning, giving President Obama a fresh independent voice in his Cabinet but at a huge cost to Republicans and the larger Senate.

The run-up to the nomination has focused on backroom deals, from New Hampshire’s statehouse to Washington, to preserve the balance of power in Congress. And Tuesday’s White House announcement is expected to be accompanied by one by New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch that will ensure that Gregg’s seat won’t switch to the Democrats before the 2010 elections.

But lost in the shuffle is the greater dynamic: Gregg himself and the fact that Obama, while talking a good game about bipartisanship, is draining the Senate of the very talent he needs to achieve this goal.
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An eventual long-term loss for the GOP that will affect the Senate a liitle now and alot in 2010

Not every gubernatorial appointment of a senator is as rocky or controversial as the recent situations in Illinois or New York. But nor do they always survive their next chance to stay in office.

Below, a list of the last time in the past half-century each state had an appointed senator and how that appointee fared in the next election:

I am thankful for Flap

Flap is Gregory Flap Cole. By his profile on Twitter he's:

A conservative Christian father of 4/ dentist / blogger / Republican activist enjoying Southern California #TCOT Updates from Flapsblog.com

If Judd Gregg were to leave the Senate to join the Obama administration, it would clearly be a slap in the face to Republicans. Even were New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch to agree to appoint a Republican, anybody Lynch picked would be a moderate who would likely be more vulnerable than Gregg in 2010. So what is Gregg thinking? Obviously, only he knows, but last July, The American Spectator hosted a dinner attended by Gregg, and looking back at my blog account from that time left me with a few possible insights.

On January 8th, GOP Senator Christopher “Kit” Bond of Missouri announced that he would not seek re-election. Bond has a long, distinguished career in Missouri and national politics and has held his current Senate seat since 1986. He’s a fairly dependable conservative vote, with an 82.5% lifetime rating from the American Conservative Union. He disappoints hard-core conservatives on occasion, as with his recent support for the automaker bailout, but he is, in general, a dependable vote for the GOP (for example, today’s opposition to protectionism in the Obama economic destruction recovery legislation). Considering the current battle for the GOP to hold fillibuster rights, Bond’s seat is critical, and will be one of THE key matchups in 2010.

I AM DISMAYED THAT LEGISLATION HAS AGAIN BEEN INTRODUCED in Congress to prohibit forever oil and gas development in the most promising unexplored petroleum province in North America — the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, in Alaska.

Let's not forget: Only six months ago, oil was selling for nearly $150 per barrel, while Americans were paying $4 a gallon and more for gasoline. And today, there is potential for prices to rebound as OPEC asserts its market power and as Russia disrupts needed natural gas to Europe for the second time in three years.

Barack Obama may have just racked up the biggest Democratic election victory margin in California since FDR. But that isn't stopping Republican Party A-listers from descending on Sacramento for this month's California Republican Party Spring Convention.

The guest list for Feb. 20-22 conference at the Hyatt Recency includes former Massachusetts governor and presidential candidate Mitt Romney, current South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford, former United Nations Ambassador John Bolton and conservative author/pundit William Bennett.

The convention is also drawing top CA-listers actively plotting gubernatorial bids or mentioned as potential candidates. They include former eBay CEO Meg Whitman, state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, Rep. Darrell Issa and 2002 GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Simon.

Florida Republican Gov. Charlie Crist is considering a run for the Sunshine State's open Senate seat although he remains a long shot to run, according to informed sources in the state and in Washington.

Jim Greer, the chairman of the Florida Republican party and a close ally of Crist, said that "whether [Crist] is going to actually run for the Senate is a decision that will be made down the road because he doesn't want to take his eye off the ball, which is serving the people of Florida as governor."

No final decision is expected from Crist until the legislative session in Florida concludes in early May, said those familiar with the governor's thinking. Crist would not, under any circumstances, appoint himself to a Senate vacancy if Martinez were to step aside early, those same sources made clear today.

The prominent role that outside groups are playing in the selling of Obama's economic stimulus plan is a marked contrast to the campaign when the former Illinois senator went out of his way to cut off funding for these sorts of organizations — in hopes of keeping his messaging tightly controlled by his political inner circle.

It remains to be seen whether Obama will allow these sorts of groups to grow and prosper as advocates for his agenda or whether he will use his own massive grassroots machine as the principal message driver of his legislative efforts.

Here is the text of the complete bill – HR 1

Senior White House advisers are quietly beginning to put a system in place to ensure coordination between the White House and outside liberal groups and unions that are ramping up to push the Obama administration’s agenda and target its foes, a senior Dem operative who regularly advises the White House and is involved in these discussions tells me.

The operation, which is in its early stages, is expected to be overseen by senior Obama hand Valerie Jarrett, the senior Dem says, and Jarrett is playing a key role in assembling it, though other senior Obama advisers will also play a role.

In what could be a Sunshine State one-two punch, multiple Republican sources are confirming that Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) is giving serious consideration to running for Senate — and that Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.) is contemplating resigning from his seat before his term is up next year.

Taking some of the allure — though only some — out of the Gregg choice, New Hampshire Governor John Lynch signaled he'll appoint a Republican in a statement:

We are in the midst of a national economic crisis, and it calls for cooperation on all of our parts. We all need to work together to do what is in the best interest of our country and our state.

I have had conversations with Senator Gregg, the White House and U.S. Senate leadership. Senator Gregg has said he would not resign his seat in the U.S. Senate if it changed the balance in the Senate. Based on my discussions, it is clear the White House and Senate leadership understand this as well.

It is important that President Obama be able to select the advisors he feels are necessary to help him address the challenges facing our nation.

In an effort to ramp up pressure on Republican lawmakers who might agree to a compromise budget deal, a top GOP official has submitted a resolution for the party's convention later this month to formally censure any Republican who votes for new or higher taxes.

"If the Republican party loses the ability to say that we're the party against higher taxes than we've been dealt a grievous blow," said Jon Fleischman, the author of the resolution and a Southern California vice chairman in the California Republican Party.

Fleischman, who publishes the conservative FlashReport Web site, said the resolution is meant as a "stick" to dissuade GOP legislators from agreeing to any budget plan with higher taxes crafted with majority Democrats and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
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Stick and Carrot approach

The DCCC is running targeted radio ads and making 100,000 "person-to-person" calls to hammer 28 Republicans who voted against the stimulus last week and the leaders who high-fived afterwards.

The radio ads will run for about a week and target members on state-specific issues — jobs, health care and education.

But the ones running in the districts of Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Via.) and NRCC chief Pete Sessions (R-TX) are extra-special, hitting the leader with voting against the stimulus while voting for "big banks" on TARP I.

That's sure to aggravate Republicans, seeing as Democratic leaders urged passage of the bank bailout, calling it a litmus test of bipartisanship. C'est la guerre.

"Did you know Congressman Eric Cantor voted to bail out big banks, but opposed tax breaks for 95 percent of American workers? Times are tough, tell Member to put families first."

Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) has emerged as the leading candidate to be nominated for Secretary of Commerce, but the panic level among Republicans (59 – 1 = dGov + 1 = 60) is lower than it was on Friday. Chatter among New Hampshire Republicans suggests that Gov. John Lynch (D) is considering appointing Doug Scamman, the former GOP Speaker of the House, well respected by both sides, semi-retired, pushing 70, as a caretaker. Another possible replacement: J. Bonnie Newman,a former chief of staff to Gregg and Reagan administration official.

At a political level, the pick could well be a masterstroke. While sources on Capitol Hill suggest that Gregg will only take the job if Democratic Gov. John Lynch promises to appoint a Republican to serve out the remaining two years of his term, there are many people — particularly within the GOP — who wonder whether Gregg will really win that concession. Even if he does, the names being bandied about for Republicans are all in the "caretaker" model, meaning that the seat will be open in 2010. Democrats are quickly lining up behind Rep. Paul Hodes as their nominee and Republicans have no obvious candidate to step in for Gregg. Given New Hampshire's strong move toward Democrats over the last two elections, the party would have to feel good about winning in an open seat scenario. (FYI: The frontrunner for the caretaker nod is Bonnie Newman, a former chief of staff to Gregg, and a founding member of Republicans for Lynch in 2004.)

Senator John McCain says there's too much unnecessary spending and too few tax cuts in the Obama administration's economic proposals to stimulate the economy.

The Arizona Republican and former presidential candidate also complains the plan has no "endgame."

Interviewed Monday on CBS's "The Early Show," McCain said that after the economy recovers the U.S. should "be on a path to a balanced budget."

Instead, he says, the Democrats' plan would burden future generations of Americans with the biggest budget deficit in history.

He says it's time for both parties to sit down and negotiate. He says the Democrats need to consider his party's concerns, especially on cutting taxes.

Michael Steele frequently reads blogs at 2 o'clock in the morning.

… At least, that's what he told me a few months ago during our first (and only) blogger conference call conversation. His interest in blogs rings true, inasmuch as he apparently spent an hour on the phone with blogger Rob Bluey, after Bluey endorsed another candidate for RNC chairman and wrote a post in opposition to Steele's election as RNC chairman.

Unlike the Democrats, who in 2005 followed the lead of bloggers and elected Howard Dean chairman, the 168 members of the RNC seemed to pay little attention to the concerns of conservative bloggers, who were among Steele's harshest critics.

The new chairman of the Republican National Committee said Sunday that his party should put the brakes on Democratic initiatives, from the economic stimulus bill to President Obama's plans for his Cabinet.

Michael Steele said in a telephone interview that Republicans should oppose former Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle's nomination to be secretary of Health and Human Services. Daschle is the second Cabinet nominee to acknowledge he didn't pay thousands of dollars in taxes.
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The GOP let Geithner go but should draw the line with Tom Daschle.

New U.S. President Barack Obama promised during his campaign to post all nonemergency legislation on WhiteHouse.gov before signing it as a way to allow the public to review and comment on it.

On Jan. 20, Obama's first day in office, a blog post on WhiteHouse.gov repeated that promise. On Thursday, Obama appeared to break that promise with the first piece of legislation he signed into law.

Obama signed the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, designed to make it easier for women to sue employers that pay them less than their male counterparts. The text of the legislation was apparently posted about the same time that Obama signed it.