links for 2010-01-19

My thesis, however, did not at all reflect conventional wisdom. That argument said that Campbell's entry would pull moderate voters from Fiorina– herself supposedly also a moderate, a claim I don't yet happen to find credible– to the benefit of DeVore.

Well, Red County has obtained an internal memo from the Fiorina campaign which we expect will be released later tonight or tomorrow. In it, there are some major surprises.

At first glance, the news, if accurate, is clearly troubling for one candidate– DeVore. The initial numbers, in a jolt to the conventional wisdom:

Fiorina: 26%

Campbell: 26%

DeVore: 11%

With his 64% name ID (vs. 41% for Carly), Campbell looks like an instant competitor, which is not a surprise given how well he was pollling the Governor's race.

When given more information, now quoting from the internal memo, "about Tom Campbell’s dismal record and stands on fiscal issues, the race turns upside down."
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Carly Fiorina will be the GOP nominee

An e-mail sent out by Chuck DeVore's campaign — and possibly even written by the assemblyman — claimed similarities between himself and Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts, Scott Brown.
Patrick Ruffini, a Republican operative "doing some work" for Scott Brown's campaign, posted this to Twitter:
Note to candidates: Just because you say you're the next @ScottBrownMA doesn't make you the next @ScottBrownMA
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Patrick Ruffini is correct to slap down Chuck DeVore. But in the interests of full disclosure, Ruffini is doing some work as a web consultant for Tom Campbell who is running against DeVore and Carly Fiorina.

Working quietly and under the radar, the National Republican Senatorial Committee shifted $500,000 to the Massachusetts GOP in the weeks leading up to Tuesday’s dramatic election, according to Republican sources.

The NRSC transfer, made in several dispersals beginning on Jan. 7, were used for phone and mail get-out-the-vote operations targeted at independent voters, said Rob Jesmer, the NRSC’s executive director.

NRSC officials kept quiet about the money transfers, despite public taunts from their Senate Democratic counterparts that the GOP leadership was declining to put money behind Brown’s candidacy.

“Working with the Massachusetts state party, we feel our investment and coordination with them will give us a leg up” come Tuesday, Jesmer told POLTICO.

The battle over health care legislation has taken its toll on U.S. Sen. Ben Nelson's political well-being, despite the Democrat's efforts to sell Nebraskans on his vote.

Nelson, who once enjoyed some of the highest job performance marks in the U.S. Senate, has now seen his approval rating dip below 50 percent in Nebraska, according to The World-Herald Poll.

Nelson said the poll results come as no surprise, especially since Nebraskans have been “bombarded” with millions of dollars in “misleading advertisements.”

He said he expects that people will come to appreciate the health care bill.
In the survey, Nelson's job approval rating was 42 percent and his disapproval rating was 48 percent. By comparison, Republican Sen. Mike Johanns of Nebraska, who voted against the bill, had a 63 percent job-approval rating.

Nelson has been under fire since he supplied the 60th vote to win approval for President Barack Obama's principal domestic policy initiative in the Senate.
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Say good bye