links for 2010-12-21

Thousand Oaks and Simi Valley are among the top 10 safest cities in the United States with populations of at least 100,000, according to 2009 FBI crime data analyzed by the two Ventura County cities.

Although the FBI advises against using the data for making such rankings because there are many variables that should be factored in before making valid comparisons of crime among different cities, Thousand Oaks and Simi Valley each conducted their own analysis based on crimes per 1,000 residents.

They both came to the same conclusion: Thousand Oaks is the fifth safest city in the country with a rate of 15.8 crimes per 1,000 residents, while Simi Valley is the eighth safest city with a rate of 17.7 crimes per 1,000 residents.
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Good to hear!

Blue States = 242 EV
Red States = 253 EV
Swing Purple States = 43 EV

She's back … 'Sarah Palin's Alaska' is such a huge hit for TLC that the network is busy trying to get the former governor to sign up for season two.

"3.066 million people turned in last week to see her episode with Kate Gosselin," a TLC insider tells me. "That is more people than are watching Bravo's 'Housewives' series or most other cable shows. For sure the network is doing everything it possibly can to convince Sarah to do another season, but at the end of the day it looks like it will all come down to money."

Sarah, who is reportedly making more than $250,000 per episode for the eight-week series, is no fool — when the show debuted to over 4.96 million viewers, insiders tell me she started talking about a new deal right away.
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I would say very likely, especially if Obama's poll numbers improve by April.

So that leaves us with a top tier of five front-runners: Romney, Palin, Gingrich, Pawlenty and Daniels. Romney is the organizational front-runner; Daniels is the first pick of wonks and D.C. eggheads; Palin probably has the most devoted following among actual voters. Gingrich will dominate the debates, and Pawlenty (vying with Daniels) is the least disliked.
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A fair assessment and it is Sarah Palin's to decline.

Otherwise it looks like Mitt Romney Vs. Mitch Daniels or Newt Gingrich

Census 2010: Gains and Losses in Congress

The Census Bureau rearranged the country’s political map on Tuesday, giving more Congressional seats to the South and the West, and taking away from the Northeast and the Midwest. The state population counts are the first results released from the 2010 Census, and are used to reapportion seats in Congress, and, in turn, the Electoral College.

The United State population grew to 308,745,538 over the last decade, an increase of 9.7 percent, the slowest rate of growth since 1940.
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Nice graphs of censis data

Apportionment after each decennial Census is required by the United States Constitution. Article 1 Section 2 says “the actual Enumeration shall be made…within every subsequent Term of ten years.” Over time, America’s population shifts, and Congress adjusts by apportioning its members according to each new set of Census results. For each House seat shifted, one Electoral College vote shifts.

The 2010 apportionment of Congressional districts among the 50 states is brings Western states’ gains to 26 Congressional seats since the 1970s, with the South picking up 27. The Northeast has now lost 26 seats and the Midwest 27 over the same period. The disparity in population growth will significantly alter the makeup of the House of Representatives. In the 1970s, the Midwest and Northeast together made up 52% of Congress. After 2010, they will hold only 40% of the seats. The Northeast alone held 104 seats in the 1970s, but that number is now down to 78.
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Read it all

And yet Republican opposition to the deal has essentially crumbled. I think the Republicans are foolish to have gone ahead rather than hold out for full consideration in the new Congress. But I understand that it is hard to resist the entreaties of the entire foreign policy establishment and to set up the president to fail.

We should also keep this all in perspective. The treaty, as I and others have argued, is not an earth-shaking matter, especially compared to the real nuclear threats we face from North Korea and Iran. But through the hard bargaining of Sen. Jon Kyl (R.-Ariz.) the administration ponied up for weapon modernization and showed some commitment to missile defense programs. In sum, Kyl got more from Obama than the U.S. is getting from Russia.

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Read it all.

Would have been better to rethink this treaty in the next Congress

Most of the media coverage of the 2010 Census will likely focus on the country's changing racial composition and the redistribution of seats in Congress. But neither of these is the most important finding. Rather, it is the dramatic increase in the size of the U.S. population itself that has profound implications for our nation's quality of life and environment. Most of the increase has been, and will continue to be, a result of one federal policy: immigration. Projections into the future from the Census Bureau show we are on track to add 130 million more people to the U.S. population in the just the next 40 years, primarily due to future immigration.
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Read it all.

The impacts are pretty dramatic.

Immigration policy needs a redo.

The Sun Belt will gain new seats in Congress as the U.S. population continued to shift south and west, according to data released Tuesday by the U.S. Census Bureau and its director, Dr. Robert Groves.

The new data show the country grew at a slower pace than it has in earlier decades. But states in the south grew at a faster rate than states in the Rust Belt. Those states will give up some representation in Congress, while southern states will grow in influence.

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, South Carolina, Georgia, Utah and Washington State will all gain members of Congress. Texas's delegation will grow the most, adding four seats. Florida gained two seats, while Arizona gained one seat.

Meanwhile, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey and Louisiana will each lose House seats. New York and Ohio, two states hard hit by generations of migration and more recent industrial stagnation, will lose two seats each.

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GOP Gains

In sum, when Republicans misstep on the issue of race, they are rightly and roundly lambasted. Some complain about a double standard (Harry Reid said dumb things, too!), but the fact remains that the vast majority of modern conservatives don't tolerate this sort of thing, and it can be fatal to one's political aspirations.

And finally, this is a reminder that candidates who look promising in 2010 may not be around for long, and those who stay out of the fray for as long as possible may be the savviest contenders.

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This is why Sarah Palin will keep her powder dry and assess her ability to beat Obama as late in the Spring 2011 as she can.