Yesterday we put out a poll on Lindsey Graham’s standing with the entire South Carolina electorate. Today we narrow it down to those describing themselves as regular Republican primary voters.
52% of them say that given the choice they’d pick a more conservative challenger in the 2014 GOP primary, compared to only 37% who say they’d support Graham under that scenario. It’s a pretty simple calculus- Graham leads 47-40 on that question with Republicans who say they don’t consider themselves to be members of the Tea Party but he trails 76-18 with folks who identify with that movement. The Tea Party faction of the Republican Party has become more and more powerful since Graham dispatched a relatively weak primary challenger in 2008 and if the fever doesn’t die down over the next three years he’s going to be in serious trouble in a primary.
Senator Graham will face a more conservative Tea Party GOP primary challenger in 2014.