UT-Sen Poll Watch: Rep. Jason Chaffetz Within 10 Points of Senator Orrin Hatch

A new Deseret News-KSL poll shows Rep. Jason Chaffetz is just 10 points behind Sen. Orrin Hatch, even though he isn’t in the race — yet.

In a GOP primary, 44 percent of the Utahns surveyed statewide said they’d vote for Hatch over Chaffetz, while 34 percent picked the congressman over the senator.

Hatch also led Chaffetz among the poll respondents who identified themselves as Republicans, 51-35 percent. But those who called themselves “very conservative” chose Chaffetz over Hatch, again 51-35 percent.

The poll, conduced Feb. 8-10 by Dan Jones & Associates of 496 residents, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent. The firm has conducted research for Hatch.

The results suggest Hatch is vulnerable in his 2012 reelection bid, University of Utah political science professor Matthew Burbank said Monday.

“The concern Hatch’s people have had all along is somebody like a Rep. Chaffetz would be a big risk to them because he would be seen as a newer face,” Burbank said.

Hatch has been trying to shore up his conservative credentials, Burbank said, to avoid facing the same sort of anti-establishment “revolt” that ended former Sen. Bob Bennett’s reelection bid at last year’s state GOP convention.

Whether that’s enough, though, remains to be seen.

Orrin Hatch is in trouble and may very well go the way of Senator Bob Bennett who lost renomination last year.

Hatch is a long term POL, old and Utah voters may want a change. Now, will Rep. Chaffetz run?