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Flap’s Saturday California Collection: June 11, 2011

A Saturday collection of links and comments about my home, California.

Around the Capital, Saturday, June 11, 2011

Big Picture:
  • HIGH HOPES (THE QUEST FOR TWO-THIRDS): Democrats are quite likely to have two-thirds in the Senate and, by winning 3 of 5 swing seats, could have two-thirds in the Assembly.  The 2012 presidential may not be the best shot, but it could happen over the decade.  
  • NATIONAL GOP’S GOT THE CALIFORNIA BLUES: The California congressional delegation will be much bluer, with as many as 8 of the GOP’s 19 seats falling moving to the Dem column.  It’s difficult to see how Dems take back the House next year, but it becomes more possible over the decade, depending on redistricting efforts in other states.
  • WILL MALDEF SUE?  The Mexican American Legal Defense and Education Fund is not happy.  They were hoping to see a few more Latino-leaning seats, and hate to see young rising Latino stars (i.e. Luis Alejo and Nora Campos) thrown into the same district.  This might be an easy thing for the Commish to fix, even though they aren’t allowed to cave to such pressure…

By Region

  •     Bay Area – Not too messy, except for the aforementioned Alejo/Campos grouping.
  •     Sacramento – Roger Dickinson, Richard Pan, Mariko Yamada are all in the same Assembly seat.  The Bee suggests Yamada can move to run for a vacant seat, although it’s a tough one (Brown 48, Whitman 44) for one of the Assembly’s most liberal members (and a good friend of mine).
  •     Sacramento – Lois Wolk is hoping for the Wolk/Steinberg seat to be an odd-numbered district, or she’ll have choose to sit out two years to run.  By then, there would likely be more folks interested in, and in the position, to also run for the seat.
  •     Sacramento/San Ramon – Depending on whether Pete Stark decides to retire, Jerry McNerney either can choose either the Bay Area (likely with other candidates), or a new safe San Joaquin seat.  Look for the latter.
  •     Central Coast – The Lois Capps vs. Abel Maldonado battle…now THIS is why independent redistricting is fun.  (47% Brown, 46% Whitman/56% Obama, 41% McCain)
  •     Central Valley – Dennis Cardoza, Jim Costa and Jeff Denham all in the same district.  However, each probably won’t have to move in order to find a neighboring district they can win from, although perennial presence on the target lists will be likely.
  •     Los Angeles – Elton Gallegly and Buck McKeon. I’d bet on the man with the guns.
  •     Los Angeles – Howard Berman did much better when his brother was drawing the lines.  Now he’s seated with Brad Sherman, who has $3m in the bank, and there aren’t any free seats floating around.  Add to it, Berman and Sherman can’t stand each other.
  •     Los Angeles – Who wants to handle the sticky mess in the seat that pairs up John Perez and Holly Mitchell?  Are there any seats on the Unemployment Insurance Appeals Board?
  •     Los Angeles – Things are a mess on the east side.  Lucille Royball-Allard and Xavier Bacerra are now in the same seat, and Royball-Allard likely won’t challenge Bacerra.  President Obama, got any appointments for Maxine Waters or Grace Napolitano? 
  •     Inland Empire/Orange County – David Drier and Gary Miller are likely going to move to K Street.  Drier is now in a Dem seat, and Roger Hernandez has already announced his candidacy.
  •     San Diego – Juan Vargas has already announced for a run for Congress for the open Imperial Valley seat.

California Citizen’s Redistricting Commission First Draft Maps – Redistricting Partners

The California Citizen’s Commission has released first drafts of maps for the 2011 statewide redistricting process.  These maps have been build through more than 30 public hearings, public testimony from thousands of individuals, and presentations of statewide plans from leading civil rights and civic organizations.

In the coming weeks these plans will be debated.  While the public process will not include partisanship, where incumbents live or what candidates could be running where, we believe this is an important piece of information for the media, public, and elected officials.

Draft Congressional Plan: [MAPS] or [DATA: CRC First Draft Political Data]

Draft Assembly Plan: [MAPS] or [DATA: CRC First Draft Assembly Political Data]

Draft Senate Plan: [MAPS] or [DATA: CRC First Draft Senate Political Data ]

Meridian Pacific California Redistricting Maps and Analysis Links

Throughout the California redistricting process, statewide plans will
be put forth by the Citizens Redistricting Commission as well as a
number of interest groups from across the state. As these plans are made
available, we will publish them here and provide a district-by-district
analysis based upon US Census Data as well as voter registration.

Analysis is available for the following plans:

District maps draw a new political landscape

California’s new voting districts could put Democrats within reach of as many as five more seats in Congress and enough in the state Legislature for the two-thirds majority needed to raise taxes, according to Democratic and Republican analysts.

Draft maps of the new political boundaries, drawn for the first time by an independent panel rather than party bosses, were released Friday and are expected to usher in the most dramatic shakeup of California’s state and federal offices in decades. Eventually, some powerful incumbents could lose their jobs.

“You’re looking at three to five Republican members of Congress that just kind of vanish,” said Matt Rexroad, a Republican political consultant in Sacramento who advises clients on redistricting. The prospect of Democrats securing two-thirds of both state legislative houses is “very much in play,” he said. No single party has held a supermajority in both the Assembly and Senate in many decades.

The maps are a work in progress, subject to change until the California Citizens Redistricting Commission’s Aug. 15 deadline to complete its task. It is charged with keeping together neighborhoods, ethnic groups, socioeconomic groups and other “communities of interest” without regard to their party registration or any risk to current officeholders.

Latino groups sharply criticized the proposed new districts, arguing that they would give one of California’s fastest-growing ethnic populations even less political power than it has now. Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Assn. of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials and a veteran of reapportionment battles, called the new maps the “worst-case scenario for Latinos in California.”

New redistricting maps show South Bay losing seats

Proposed redistricting maps released Friday would dramatically alter the face of the South Bay’s political landscape, eliminating two of the region’s congressional districts and once again linking the Palos Verdes Peninsula to its coastal neighbors.

The congressional district held by Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher would be completely contained in Orange County, forfeiting the Palos Verdes Peninsula to the neighboring district once represented by Rep. Jane Harman.

The new lines drawn by the California Citizens Redistricting Commission, based on 2010 census figures, also call for excising Carson from the district represented by Democratic Rep. Laura Richardson. That city would move into the area represented by Rep. Maxine Waters, who would forfeit Westchester and Playa del Rey under the new political boundaries.(…)

(…)Under the commission’s proposal, the Palos Verdes Peninsula would be moved into a congressional district that stretches from San Pedro to Santa Monica.

If approved, the area would encompass the homes of Republican Craig Huey and his Democratic challenger, Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn, who are running for the congressional seat vacated when Harman stepped down earlier this year.

Huey does not live within the district’s current boundaries. Neither candidate could be reached for comment about the proposed maps.

“That’s a huge coastal seat that still appears to lean Democratic,” said Allan Hoffenblum, a former GOP consultant and publisher of the California Target Book, a nonpartisan guide to state politics.

“If Janice Hahn wins, it could be a good seat for her to keep,” Hoffenblum said. “It might not be a totally safe Democratic seat, but I think it could be tough for a Republican to win in a district like that.”

Enjoy your Saturday!

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