CA-36: California Early Voting Forecasts a Close Race for Craig Huey Vs. Janice Hahn

As, I have said before, this will be a tight race and I would not be surprised if Craig Huey pulls the upset.

Early Republican turnout in the special election for an open Southern California House seat is keeping pace with Democrats, indicating that Craig Huey may be on the verge of a midsummer surprise.

According to a Friday tally compiled by the registrar’s office and provided to POLITICO by the Huey campaign, Republican ballots are trailing Democratic ballots in the 36th Congressional District by just 692 votes.

The early vote tabulations as of Friday, by party:

Republican/Libertarian – 13,343

Democratic/Green – 14,035

Non-affiliated – 5,512

While it’s impossible to know how many early voters crossed their own party affiliation, the numbers are the latest evidence that Huey is running a much closer race with Democrat Janice Hahn than most expected.

It’s an difference of just 2 percent, and it has Huey’s campaign invigorated as they head into the final stretch before the July 12 runoff.

Notes a Huey adviser, “It’s very tight.  We lost in absentees in the primary and beat her at the polls on election day.”

The Hahn campaign responded by saying that the Decline to State or Non-affiliated voters should break 70-30% for Hahn, but I think that is a real reach.

The fact remains that Huey will run a good GOTV (Get Out the Vote) campaign for this summer-time special election and Republicans/Libertarians/conservatives, while a minority in the district, WILL turn put to vote.

One week to go and this race is very close.