MP Pat O’Brien announces at a news conference in Ottawa on Monday that he is quitting the Liberal Party to sit as an independent.

Liberal MP Pat O’Brien announced Monday he would be leaving the Liberal caucus to sit as an independent, saying Prime Minister Paul Martin had gone back on his promise to give adequate public consultation on same-sex marriage legislation:

“They’re determined to move forward on this issue, and you can see how and what a rush they are [in] to do that,” Mr. O’Brien said at a morning press conference on Monday.

“I can’t accept that in good conscience, so I leave the party with some regret, but my objective remains (to) defeat Bill C-38. Hopefully I can be more successful as an independent than I was as a Liberal.”

Mr. O’Brien, who represents the Ontario riding of London–Fanshawe, had threatened to jump ship in April if public consultation were not sought by the legislative committee studying the same-sex marriage bill.

So, will this new balance of power in Parliament mean a No-Confidence Vote? Remembering that the last call for an election was barely resisted by the Liberal Party.

Mr. O’Brien said Monday that he feels that the Prime Minister went back on his word and that the process to legislate same-sex marriage was “unfolding to be a farce.”

As it stands, there are 132 liberals, 98 Conservatives, 54 Bloc, 19 NDP, and four independents in the House. The second reading of the bill passed 164-137. At the time, only 35 Liberal members voted against the bill, which was supported by both the Bloc and the NDP.

If Mr. O’Brien wanted to defeat the bill in the House, he would have to muster nearly 15 more MPs to win. Failing that, Mr. O’Brien could only hope to force a confidence motion or hope that Mr. Martin retracted the bill.

Mr. O’Brien said he favours the latter.

So, stay tuned. Canada might have an election yet this year.

Captain Ed over at Captain’s Quarters opines:

It sounds as if O’Brien will be reluctant to support the Liberals if another no-confidence motion gets tabled in Parliament. This brings the Commons back to a 152-all tie, assuming that the Parliamentary factions line up as before. It places even more pressure on Chuck Cadman and David Kilgour now that budget issues have mostly been addressed.

The first plea in the sponsorship scandel that threatens the Paul Martin – Liberal Party government has occurred. The Globe and Mail has the story about the gulty plea of Paul Coffin to 15 fraud charges here:

Mr. Coffin, the first person charged in the scandal, had originally faced 18 counts, but three counts were withdrawn by the Crown during Tuesday’s hearing.

Each charge carries a maximum sentence of 10 years, but the judge hearing the case indicated he won’t impose a sentence at the top end of the range.

Mr. Coffin, head of Montreal-based Communication Coffin, had been accused of submitting false or inflated invoices as part of his handling of federal sponsorships of car and mountain-bike races, among other events, between 1997 and 2002.

He was originally scheduled to go to trial on the charges early next month. Lawyers will appear in court Aug. 16 to make arguments on sentencing.

“The defence attorney said that Mr. Coffin wished to get his financial house in order and we thought it was a good idea to give him that opportunity,” Crown attorney Francois Drolet told reporters outside of court.

“After all, one month and a half is not such a long delay.”

The delay will also allow Mr. Coffin time to reimburse the government for the $1.5-million covered in Tuesday’s plea.

However, Mr. Drolet also said, even if that takes place, the Crown will likely still ask for a jail sentence in the case.

Will Paul Martin grant him clemency or commute his sentence? And why not? He has been buying off the other politicos to stay in power. This would be an easy ministerial action.

Later Tuesday, the Conservatives will try again to introduce a motion calling on the government to expand the inquiry’s mandate. The Liberals have called the motion unnecessary.

Meanwhile, six charges of fraud have also been laid against former Groupaction Marketing Inc. president Jean Brault. Mr. Brault is scheduled be tried in October along with retired civil servant Chuck Guité, who managed the sponsorship program from 1996 to 1999.

Well one down, a few more to go.

When do the pardons begin?

Read Captain Ed’s take on this story here.

Adman Paul Coffin, the first person charged in the federal sponsorship scandal, leaves a Montreal courthouse Tuesday after pleading guilty to 15 fraud charges.

Jean Brault former president of Groupaction

A forensic audit presented yesterday reveals that Groupaction Marketing, one of the biggest beneficiaries of the federal sponsorship program, may have given more than $1.7-million to the federal Liberal party in unregistered donations. Read the story here:

The sum is in addition to the $800,000 that nine advertising firms involved in the sponsorship program, including Groupaction, made in official donations to the Liberals, for a total of $2.5-million over the 10 years examined by Kroll Lindquist Avey, forensic accounting experts hired by the Gomery inquiry.

The accounting firm was unable to trace any cash payments made to the Liberals but unearthed more than $400,000 in cash that Groupaction president Jean Brault would have had at his disposal between 1996 and 2002.

Mr. Brault has testified that he was leaned on to help the Liberal “cause” as payment for the lucrative sponsorship and advertising contracts being sent his way. He said he provided envelopes of cash and put Liberal workers on his payroll.

How can the Canadian people tolerate such blatant subversion of their government with these corrupt activities?

Prime Minister Paul Martin has a taxpayer financed War Room to help him manage Gomery Inquiry public relations. Read the story here:

The Liberal government has set up a war room — at a cost of about $1-million to taxpayers — to handle the fallout from the Gomery commission.

Documents obtained by CanWest News Service through the Access to Information Act reveal the rapid-response war room, which is in almost daily contact with the Prime Minister’s Office and the government’s top bureaucrat, Alex Himelfarb, is operating out of the Privy Council Office.

The cost of the strategic office, which does everything from prepare answers for Question Period in the House of Commons to keeping the PMO abreast of testimony at the inquiry, covers the salaries of staff and expenses.

The Gomery war room and its cost came to light on the heels of last week’s complaints from Judge John Gomery about federal officials exaggerating the cost of his inquiry.

Officials at the commission looking into the sponsorship scandal say the total cost of the actual inquiry will come in under $32-million. Judge Gomery said government officials have “leaked” to the media that it is costing departments another $40-million to cover costs at four key departments, including the PCO.

“It’s an exaggeration and it’s twisting reality,” Judge Gomery said Thursday during the inquiry.

Revelations from the inquiry, which is digging into the $250-million sponsorship scheme, forced the Liberals to put $750,000 into a trust fund to pay back money improperly obtained by the party.

One memo to Mr. Himelfarb indicates the strategy office was set up almost immediately after the Martin government launched the inquiry in February, 2004, upon the release of Auditor-General Sheila Fraser’s damning report on the sponsorship program.

What is so surprising of a Prime Minister, and the Liberal political party who bribes (Flap means convinces) Conservative Party members to switch parties to save themselves from a no-confidence vote?

Independent MP Chuck Cadman stands with the government during confidence vote on Thursday.

The Canadian Government of Prime Minister Paul Martin barely survives a confidence vote in Parliament this afternoon. The Globe and Mail has the story here:

The Liberal government survived a crucial budget vote Thursday night by a sliver, effectively ending the possibility of a snap election and giving the governing minority a bit of breathing room to finish this session of Parliament before the summer break.

By the closest of margins, the Grits, along with the support of the NDP, and Independent MPs Chuck Cadman and Carolyn Parrish, pushed their budget with NDP amendments through, thus surviving a non-confidence motion on Bill C-48 which contained $4.6-billion in concessions for the Democrats. The final result was 152 to 152, with the Speaker breaking the tie for the government.

Read the rest of the story here.

Paul Martin survives to live another day but a tie vote in Parliament is certainly no mandate.

Now, the Liberal Party will have to govern and hope the Gomery Inquiry does not result in any further defections.

At 5:45 PM EDT there will be budget votes that the Conservatives hope will bring down Prime Minister Paul Martin and his Liberal Party controlled Canadian government.

Read the story from The Globe and Mail here:

Independent MP David Kilgour will vote in favour of the federal budget but against an NDP amendment, a move that backs opposition efforts to topple the government and leaves the fate of Parliament effectively in the hands of a single member.

Mr. Kilgour has said he was undecided on which way he would vote, but in recent days expressed concern about the direction of the minority Liberal government and the decision to give rookie MP Belinda Stronach a cabinet posting upon her defection from the Conservatives.

Thursday afternoon, however, Mr. Kilgour decided to follow the lead of the Conservatives and give only his support to the broader budget, but not the amendment struck as part of a Liberal deal with the NDP…

Within hours, MPs of all stripes will face off in the House of Commons to decide whether Canadians will be sent to tIhe polls just a year after their last trip to the ballot boxes to pick a government.

Flap wagers on a mid-summers election for Canada.

Stay Tuned!

Prime Minister Paul Martin shakes hands with newly designated Human Resources Minister Belinda Stronach during a news conference in Ottawa on Tuesday.

In a stunning development before Thursday’s anticipated vote to bring down the Liberal Party and Paul Martin’s government Conservative MP Belinda Stronach has crossed the floor to join the Liberal Party as the new Human Resources Development Minister. The Globe and Mail has the story here:

The stunning move could be a blow to the Tories’ hopes of defeating the government Thursday and triggering a federal election, because it will lower the hair-thin Conservative-Bloc Québécois lead in the seat count. Conservative Leader Stephen Harper said the party was “devastated” and “betrayed.”

Prime Minister Paul Martin said he met with Ms. Stronach — who had been an outspoken and moderate Conservative — for a private dinner at 24 Sussex Dr. Monday evening and after a lengthy discussion, Ms. Stronach said she felt confident that leaving the Tories was the right decision.

“We talked about all that is at stake in Thursday’s vote on the budget and we talked most of all about what’s required to build a stronger, better future for all Canadians,” the pleased-looking Prime Minister said at a hastily scheduled press conference in Ottawa Tuesday morning, where the official announcement was made.

“We found that on critical questions of both policy and politics that we have much in common. We both believe in a centrist, balanced and moderate set of policies.”

Ms. Stronach said she struggled with the decision to leave the party she once sought to lead.

“I found myself at a crossroads,” she said, adding that she has become increasingly uncomfortable with the direction that Mr. Harper has been taking the party. “The upcoming vote forces me to make a decision. And I feel that as I evaluated my options, that you know should I leave, because I do have some different viewpoints as to how the party should grow and those are not a secret.”

Sorry, Ms. Stronach, but something smells! But, then again, what would you expect from a corrupt Liberal Party and Canadian Prime Minister.

Ms. Stronach has been vocal about her opposition to an election. She has said she wants to wait until Mr. Justice John Gomery releases his report on the sponsorship inquiry late in the year. Mr. Martin has promised that he will call an election within 30 days of that report being tabled.

However, Mr. Harper had not wanted to wait for the Gomery report to be released. He was gearing up for an election call after Thursday’s vote, confident that with the support of the Bloc Québécois, the Liberal government would fall.

This decision by Ms. Stonach had nothing to do with the timing of the election call and the Gomery Inquiry. It had everything to do with blind ambition, the promises of political ascendancy and the corrupting influences of the Liberal Party political machinery.

On Tuesday morning, a strained-looking Mr. Harper admitted the news had come as a shock to his party. Ms. Stronach had been an asset to the Tories because she held a high-profile Ontario seat — a province in which the Tories need to make gains in an upcoming election — and because she was well-known as a one-time leadership candidate and former head of Magna International, an auto parts company.

“I know that a number of our caucus members are feeling quite devastated, quite betrayed by this,” he said. He said Ms. Stronach had called him to let him know of her decision just before her Tuesday morning press conference.

He also admitted it will affect Thursday’s vote.

“Obviously Belinda’s actions today make the defeat of the government on Thursday much less likely. But it doesn’t in any way change the principal position that our caucus has taken on this issue. The governing party is corrupt,” he said.

Without a doubt this government and Liberal Party are corrupt.

The logistics of her switch with regards to the no confidence vote on Thursday are covered below in the Globe and Mail:

But the Opposition Leader did not leave the news conference without a parting jab at Ms. Stronach, accusing her of following her ambition rather than principles.

“There’s no grand principle involved in this decision, just ambition,” he said.

“I told my wife only a few days ago that I thought it had become obvious to Belinda that her leadership ambitions would not be reached in this party regardless of whether or not we won the next election. It will be interesting to watch her progress in the Liberal party.”

Ms. Stronach told reporters she was not interested in the Liberal leadership.

She takes over from Lucienne Robillard, who had been HRDC minister and national campaign co-chair. Ms. Robillard keeps her Intergovernmental Affairs Minister role and remains President of the Queen’s Privy Council.

The unexpected news boosts the Liberal seat count and could alter the outcome of Thursday’s budget vote.

Ms. Stronach’s move to the Liberal ranks bolsters the Liberal and NDP to 151 seats in total and decreases the Tory and Bloc numbers to 152.

There are three independent MPs in the House — Carolyn Parrish, Chuck Cadman and David Kilgour.

Ms. Parrish, a former Liberal, has said she would vote with the Liberals, which means they would need only the vote of either Mr. Cadman, a former Tory, or Mr. Kilgour, a former Liberal, to win a confidence vote.

(The Speaker would likely break a tie and would vote for the Liberals.) However, it’s still unclear which party Mr. Cadman or Mr. Kilgour will support, thus, Thursday’s outcome is not known.

Ms. Stronach represents the Ontario riding of Newmarket-Aurora. Mr. Martin said Tuesday that Martha Hall Findlay agreed to stand down as the Liberal candidate.

Ms. Stronach had served as international trade critic for the Conservatives. Mr. Harper has asked Tory MP Rona Ambrose, the party’s former intergovernmental affairs critic, to take over the portfolio.
The move by Ms. Stronach came about after she voiced her disaffections last week when she met former Ontario Liberal premier David Peterson at a public event in Toronto.

Mr. Peterson promptly called Tim Murphy, a former Ontario Liberal MPP and now the No. 1 official in the Prime Minister’s Office.

By Monday evening, Ms. Stronach and Mr. Martin were working out a deal over dinner.

After that meeting, she called deputy Tory Leader Peter MacKay, to whom she had been romantically linked, and told him what had happened.

Mr. MacKay was gobsmacked, said one of his confidants. He picked up the phone and broke the news to Mr. Harper on Tuesday morning.

Ms. Stronach was sworn in to her new cabinet post at Rideau Hall late Tuesday afternoon.
Reaction was swift and strong Tuesday after the announcement.

Saskatchewan Premier Lorne Calvert, who is preparing for the Queen’s visit later Tuesday in Regina, said he’s pleased with her decision.

“I believe that Belinda Stronach has done the right thing. I believe she’s done the right thing for Canada.”
Callers to radio talk shows and websites had mixed opinions. Some accused her of being overly ambitious, while others said it was a courageous move.

NDP Leader Jack Layton said he hopes it will mean a win for the Liberals on Thursday because the House of Commons needs to get back to governing.
And Ontario Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty refused to comment on Ms. Stronach’s defection.

Read the other links on this Tory defection:

• Politics makes estranged bedfellows
• Stronach always a liberal Conservative
• Dollar gains on Stronach move
• Martin’s statement
• Stronach’s statement
  

The Canadian Conservatives have unleashed a series of radio ads bashing the Liberal Party and Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin. The Globe and Mail has the story here:

The federal Conservatives unleashed a series of radio attack ads yesterday that declare Prime Minister Paul Martin’s Liberals “desperate” and mired in corruption — a tone that could carry through an election campaign anticipated to begin later this week.

The Tories are also preparing to publish their campaign platform which, The Globe and Mail has learned, will include a number of Liberal-oriented social initiatives, including a commitment to increase foreign aid to 0.7 per cent of gross domestic product by 2015. The pledge, along with cash for daycare and infrastructure spending, are an apparent effort by Conservative Leader Stephen Harper to prevent the Liberals from blaming his party for the death of their budget.

The Tory advertisements released yesterday accuse the Prime Minister of being willing to “do anything to hang on to power” and of “trying to avoid you, the voter.”

In one ad, a man’s voice says: “Paul Martin says ‘wait.’ For what? More waste? More corruption?”

The Tories rolled out the ads as the Prime Minister Martin pleaded for a return to civility in Parliament.

“We’ve got to find our way back to the high road,” he said yesterday in Halifax after signing a $137.3-million deal to improve child care in Nova Scotia, the fifth province to sign on…

The election season has begun early.

The Liberal government of Prime Minister Paul Martin will fall according to Reuters. Read the story here:

Canada’s minority Liberal government, under heavy pressure over a corruption scandal, looks set to lose a confidence vote next week, government and opposition officials said Friday.

Prime Minister Paul Martin has proposed Parliament vote on his budget next Thursday and says he will call an election if he loses.

The main opposition Conservative Party wants the vote immediately but indications are that whenever it is held, the Liberals have a poor chance of surviving, even though the vote will be close.

“This government is finished,” a senior member of the cabinet confided. If the Liberals fall next Thursday it would open the way to a June 27 election.

The Liberals and their left-leaning New Democrat allies have 151 seats in the 308-seat parliament, while the Conservatives and the separatist Bloc Quebecois have 153. The speaker of Parliament is a Liberal but he only votes in case of a tie. One seat is vacant.

To have any chance of winning the Liberals need the support of two independent members of Parliament, at least one of whom now says he will in all likelihood vote against the government.

“The math is very favorable … we’re confident we’re doing the right thing and that the numbers are in place,” senior Conservative legislator Vic Toews told reporters.

Even the New Democrats, who insist Parliament be kept alive long enough to pass the budget, are not holding out much hope.

When Reuters suggested to a well-placed New Democrat official that the government side looked set to lose the vote, the official replied: “I think you’re right.”

For all the Conservatives’ determination to bring down the government, polls show the electorate is in a volatile mood and there is no guarantee the party would win an election and end 12 years of Liberal power.

One Conservative member of Parliament is severely ill with cancer and is due to have an operation next Wednesday, which means he will miss the vote Thursday.

His absence would in theory give the Liberals a greater chance of survival but the New Democrats said for the sake of fairness they are ready to withdraw one of their own legislators from Parliament during the vote.

“What we are potentially doing is failing to take advantage of a sick member, and we’re simply refusing to do that,” New Democrat Member of Parliament Ed Broadbent told reporters.

If the New Democrats did withdraw a member to compensate for the missing Conservative, it would leave the Liberals with 150 seats to 152 for their opponents.

The chances of Martin surviving suffered a blow Thursday when independent legislator David Kilgour — a long-term advocate of Africa — expressed disappointment with a proposed aid package for Sudan’s troubled Darfur region.

“If (Martin) doesn’t do significantly better in the next week then he can assume that my vote’s going to be against him,” Kilgour told Reuters.

It is over!

The political game is afoot – a summer’s election for Canada.