Poll graphic courtesy of the Sacramento Bee
Let’s look at some more (the cross tabulations are here):
And, now the favorability numbers:
The California Field poll is a
vulnerable venerable polling organization that is reputable for accurate results. But, there are a number of factors that should be pointed out.
- I doubt MOST Californians are paying attention to a United States Senate primary election in June.
- The poll was conducted partly before Tom Campbell switched last week from running for California Governor to U.S. Senate.
Tom Campbell – the leader for now:
Campbell the former Congressman from Northern California has run statewide for the United States Senate twice before. Until last week he has been campaigning for many months against Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner for the Republican Governor nomination statewide.
It is obvious that Campbell has good name identification and with a generic sounding name it is easy to pick him in answering a polling interview.
However, Campbell is a very socially liberal Republican. For example, he is pro-abortion, supports government funding of abortion and was against California’s Proposition 8 that restored the traditional definition of marriage – in other words Campbell supports gay marriage. Campbell has also been active in legalizing marijuana for medicinal use and there may be some question as to whether he favors further decriminalization of marijuana laws or even outright legalization.
On fiscal matters, he has not hesitated to support tax increases, including supporting California Proposition 1A (which I voted against and was defeated), and supporting a gas tax increase of 32 cents while Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Finance Director. Moreover, Campbell has refused to sign a no-tax pledge.
When informed of these facts by either Fiorina and/or DeVore, Caliifornia voter support will likely fall like a stone. Add this with the fact that Campbell has absolutely NO campaign cash since he could not transfer his California Governor’s campaign account to the Senate campaign, he will be unable to advertise for months.
Then, there is the major problem of his campaign. Campbell is a political campaign harlot who has hopped from one bed to another to just get elected to office. Look at his CV and his political career. When informed that Campbell is just another typical politician anda harlot at that, the 30 per cent he received in this poll may be his high water mark.
Chuck DeVore – last place and why is he continuing in this race?
Chuck DeVore, an obscure California Assemblyman from Orange County (and a very safe Republican district) has never run before for statewide office BUT has been running for United States Senate for over a year. And, he receives only 6 per cent! Frankly, nobody knows who the hell this guy is and that is reflected in the poll result above.
I have illustrated and posted a number of times that DeVore has been unable to raise any substantial campaign cash and although he has more on hand than Campbell at the moment, he is already behind Fiorina by almost $ 3 Million. He has no funds to do any type of media campaign, including televison. And, with only 6 % he is unlikely to be able to pry more money out of the hands of the few donors he has captured.
The only question for the DeVore campaign is when to gracefully withdraw or beg for it to be over whichever occurs first. If DeVore stays in the race look for about a 15 per cent showing at the polls – maybe 20 at most.
Carly Fiorina – second place but attacked by Campbell and DeVore and Boxer – oh my!
The former CEO of Hewlett-Packard is a well-known California corporate leader who was a major surrogate for John McCain’s Presidential campaign last year. Carly has been seen on Fox News and the other cable news and business channels ALOT.
But, Carly developed breast cancer last year and underwent both radiation and chemotherapy for much of the Spring and Summer 2009. She only declared her candidacy in November when she secured the endorsements of most Republican incumbent U.S. Senators, including John McCain and Tom Coburn.
Her fundraising has been good but not outstanding in the two months she has been a candidate. But, the Christmas holidays may have slowed her down a bit – so she reached into her own pocket and pulled out $2.5 million. Carly can reach for more and in a few conversations with her it is my impression that money is not really a concern for her. Resources will not be a problem for Carly.
So, why is Carly who is in second place in the above polling attacked so much? She is attacked by DeVore for being a RINO (Republican in Name Only) and not being conservative enough (Carly is pro-life and against gay marriage) – so wrong there Chuckles.
She is attacked by Campbell for having a campaign in disarray. Well, at least she has a communication team and has some campaign funds, unlike Campbell who just returned from Panama and extensive Spanish lessons. Fiorina is lead by Marty Wilson who has a pretty good track record in electing major California politicians. Do the names Pete Wilson and Arnold Schwarzenegger stand out? Wilson’s fundraisers will raise mega-bucks for Fiorina – hear the cash register now?
Then, Carly is attacked by Boxer and the left for having bankrupted Hewlett-Packard and shipping jobs overseas. Both are false and Hewlett-Packard is the largest computer manufacturer in the country now and is thriving. With the corporate campaign rules being chnged today by the U.S. Supreme Court lets see how much American business disfavors Fiorina. I think she will be able to raise a ton of money – like on the order of $10 million in independent expenditures alone – maybe more.
So, what does the Field Poll mean?
In short, Carly Fiorina WILL win by beating Tom Campbell handily in June with Chuck DeVore withdrawing sometime after the California GOP Convention in March.