Carly Fiorina, a candidate for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate, speaks to reporters in front of the county building Monday, June 7, 2010 in San Diego. At left, San Diego city council member Carl DeMaio looks on, with Escondido Mayor Lori Holt Pfeiler, right. Fiorina is battling former Congressman Tom Campbell and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore for the opportunity to challenge incumbent, Democrat Barbara Boxer. AP PhotoThe latest and final Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies poll has Carly Fiorina up big.
Looking at the changes in the US Senate contest, Carly Fiorinaâ€™s campaign has increased her support by 10 points, up from 44%, Tom Campbell has dropped 2 points from 21% to 19% and Chuck Devore has increased by 2 points, up from 14%. Other candidate support has decreased 2 points to 5%, and undecided voters has decreased 8 points from 14%.This race is over.
Put a fork in Chuck DeVore and Tom Campbell – they are done.
Tom Campbell can make plans to go back to Chapman Law School and Chuck DeVore (the termed out California Assemblyman) can run for the City of Irvine Mayor or City Council.
Bring on Barbara Boxer………
California U.S. Senate candidates Tom
Campbell, Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore
Carly Fiorina has a 15-point lead on Tom Campbell in the final days of the GOP Senate primary.
The poll found Fiorina has the support of 37 percent of GOP primary voters, with 22 percent of respondents backing Campbell. Irvine Assemblyman Chuck DeVore came in a close third with 19 percent support, with 20 percent still undecided.
Forty-two percent of GOP respondents said Fiorina was the best bet for defeating Democratic U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer in the fall, with Campbell and DeVore polling at 22 percent and 12 percent, respectively.
That could be a blow to Campbell’s recent pitch that he’s better poised to beat Boxer, a claim he made based on the results of hypothetical match-ups in the recent USC-LA Times poll.
The poll surveyed 511 likely GOP primary voters between May 27 and June 2. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
It appears this race is all but over.
Carly Fiorina is “on air” and have seen her television ads multiple times today. Campbell and DeVore have not had the resources to compete with the Fiorina media onslaught.
Chuck DeVore and Tom Campbell have failed California Politics 101 where the trusim of money being the “Mother’s Milk of Politics” is especially evident.
California U.S. Senate candidates Tom Campbell, Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore
A new Magellan Strategies poll in California confirms other recent surveys which show Carly Fiorina (R) has surged into the lead for the Republican Senate nomination.
Fiorina leads with 44%, while Tom Campbell (R) is at 21% and Chuck DeVore is at 14%.
Obviously, Carly Fiorina has SURGED into a convincing lead as California voters participate in early and absentee ballot voting.
Survey results from the US Senate ballot test show Carly Fiorina with a 23 point lead over former Congressman Tom Campbell 44% to 21% and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore with 14%. Seven percent support another candidate, and 14% of voters are undecided. Support for Carly Fiorina has surged 24 points since our last survey on February 25th from 20% to 44%, and Tom Campbellâ€™s support has declined 12 points from 33% to 21%. Chuck DeVore has made a small gain among men, increasing his support by 3 points from 11% to 14%.
Looks like Tom Campbell is collapsing as Independent Expenditure Committees run ads against him and Chuck Devore is a NEVER-WAS. With DeVore at only 7 points above another candidate and 30 points behind Fiorina, his candidacy is TOAST.
But, the race is fluid – so stay tuned……
From the latest Survey USA PollThis is hilarious. LOST ended last night but “The Others” are still around. Namely IT is California Assemblyman Chuck DeVore who is polling so low that ABC News Los Angeles does not name him anymore.
In the meantime, Carly Fiorina has SURGED to a commanding lead in this race.
CA Republicans Whitman & Fiorina Surge; Air Goes Out of Poizner Statehouse Balloon; Campbell’s Train to DC Stalls: California’s Republican primary contests for Governor and US Senator have sea-sawed, according to new SurveyUSA polling conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno.
In the Republican primary for US Senator, support for former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is up sharply in the past 2 weeks, from 24% on 05/10/10 to 46% today 05/24/10. Fiorina’s support has more than doubled among women, seniors, Hispanics, the less educated, and in the Inland Empire. During these 2 weeks, Former Congressman Tom Campbell’s support dropped 12 points, from 35% on 05/10/10 to 23% today 05/24/10.
Looks like DeVore’s electoral support will end up less than 20 per cent (14 % in this poll). Tom Campbell has collapsed into the 20th percentile while Carly Fiorina gathers up the rest.
Plus, Carly is continuing her heavy advertising media blitz, including television.
Looks like a strong finish for the former Hewlett-Packard CEO.
Here is a static screen shot:
I think Erick Erickson over at Red State has gone insane in the membrane over this post. But, then again, I said a few weeks ago that he was NOT serious and was simply covering his ass should Tom Campbell win.
However, it appears that Tom Campbell has topped out and the latest PPIC poll released last night shows him static or fading with Carly Fiorina besting Chuck DeVore by 9 points.
So, who should drop out?
I don’t think either at this point since Fiorina is leading or tied in the polls, has a robust media campaign ongoing and has the most campaign cash. Contrast this with DeVore who has run one television ad once and who has no money for a media campaign the last three weeks. Carly simply does NOT need DeVore to drop out to beat Tom Campbell, who, by the way, has pulled all of his campaign ads off television and radio and is rumored to be out of money.
If Chuck DeVore wishes to continue an embarrassingly negative, underfunded, futile campaign, then let it fly.
It is DeVore’s future after he loses.
California U.S. Senate candidates Tom Campbell, Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore
The latest PPIC poll has just been released.
The Republican senate primary race is also close, with Carly Fiorina (25%) and Tom Campbell (23%) deadlocked, as they were in March (24% Fiorina, 23% Campbell), and support doubling for Chuck DeVore (16% today, 8% March) among GOP likely voters. Thirty-six percent are undecided. Fiorina and Campbell have similar levels of support among men (29% Fiorina, 25% Campbell, 17% Devore), with 29 percent undecided. Support for the two candidates is also similar among women (21% Fiorina, 20% Campbell, 14% DeVore), but 44 percent of women are still undecided.
And, with the Fiorina campaign just starting a television media blitz while Campbell and Devore are “off air” the momentium continues with Fiorina. With three weeks to go before election day, Carly Fiorina is the one to beat.
With Chuck DeVore mired in third place, yet again in another poll, people are speculating when he will withdraw.
The Fiorina campaign had this to say about the poll:
Carly for California Deputy Campaign Manager for Communications Julie Soderlund today issued the following statement in response to the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll of Californiaâ€™s U.S. Senate race that was released this evening:
â€œSince declaring her candidacy in November, Carly has been laying the groundwork for a campaign that inspires enthusiasm among Republicans and sets the stage for an epic fight to retire a 28-year failed senator. Todayâ€™s PPIC poll confirms that hard work produces results. Carly has traveled across California talking to voters, inspiring volunteers to join the campaign and raising funds for a robust voter contact program. These are the necessary ingredients of a winning campaign, and we fully expect the momentum to continue building as we march toward victory on June 8.
â€œThis poll also demonstrates that former Congressman Campbellâ€™s high watermark of support for his candidacy has come and gone as Republican voters learn he is not a fiscal conservative and has not been honest with the people of California about his 20-year record of support for tax increases and more government spending. Generally speaking, once a candidate falls behind, he never retakes the lead. Tom Campbellâ€™s standing with voters is declining and Carlyâ€™s is growing. It smells like a trend that is moving in Carlyâ€™s favor.â€
California U.S. Senate candidates Tom Campbell, Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore
The latest poll in the California U.S Senate GOP primary was released yesterday afternoon. Yes, I am a little late getting this posted but I was traveling most of yesterday.
The hotly contested race for the Republican nomination in both the U.S. Senate and Attorney General races are tightening up with the primary only three weeks away, the Small Business Action Committee/M4 Strategies Poll found.
In the U.S. Senate contest, Tom Campbell leads with field with 32.6%, with Carly Fiorina close behind at 28.2%, and Chuck DeVore tallying 15.3%. Fiorina has made the biggest movement since the SBAC/M4 Strategies poll in February. At that time, Campbell had a similar 32%, Fiorina was at 18% and DeVore stood at 11%.
The poll conducted on May 12, 13, and 16 of 600 high propensity Republican voters has a margin of error of 4%.
Keeping in mind that this poll was taken prior to Carly Fiorina’s television advertising campaign coupled with Tom Campbell being “off-air” for the coming week. In any case, Carly Fiorina is within striking distance of Tom Campbell (within the margin of error, is surging and Chuck DeVore is far out of the running.
It is time for conservative leaders to insist that Chuck DeVore withdraw from this race. He is not competitive and is drawing votes away from another conservative Carly Fiorina. DeVore is acting as a spoiler and should be true to his conservative values and withdraw after waging “the good fight.” Otherwise, the left-leaning Tom Campbell, a true RINO (Republican In Name Only) or “Barbara Boxer Light” could win a narrow electoral victory.
I understand the California PPIC poll will be released tonight. Should DeVore poll in a distant third place again, you can put a fork in his candidacy – He’s Done.
US Senate candidate Carly Fiorina talking with David Brody, Christian broadcast News
This is what Carly Fiorina has called her opponent Tom Campbell and she is correct. Here is the transcript:
Carly Fiorina: â€œTom Campbellâ€™s wrong on the issues. Heâ€™s wrong first and foremost on the issues of taxes. He is the architect of Californiaâ€™s 2005 budget which created structural deficits for the state for many years to come in good times and in bad. He believes the way to close the California budget is to increase the gasoline tax by 32 cents a gallon. He has voted against tax cuts as a member of Congress. He has votes for sales tax increases, Internet taxes, gasoline taxes going back as far as the late 80â€™s. This is a guy who is wrong on taxes, heâ€™s wrong on the growth of government and those issues matter tremendously not just to Republican primary voters but to the voters of California.
Carly Fiorina: â€œI am a fiscal conservative and he is not. Certainly I am a pro-life candidate. He is a pro-choice candidate. In fact if you look at some of his positions, I would characterize him as Barbara Boxer light only he wouldn’t have the seniority and he wouldn’t have the power.”
Carly should have just called Tom Campbell a RINO (Republican in Name Only) and be done with it. There will be little difference between Boxer and Campbell if he is nominated to face off with Babs in November.
Former Congressman Tom Campbell and U.S. Senate candidateWell, Tom Campbell has cancelled all television and radio ad buys for this week.
Ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R) is cutting back on TV advertising, switching strategies as some opponents wonder whether Campbell’s surprisingly strong campaign is running low on funds.
Campbell will not be on TV this coming week. And he has cut his ad buys for the final 2 weeks of the campaign significantly, according to sources who watch campaign ad spending; data shows Campbell has purchased $286K in ads over the last 2 weeks, less than the $393K he had previously reserved.
Instead, Campbell’s campaign will send an oversized mailer to 1.1M voters this week, according to his campaign.
From the Carly Fiorina campaign via e-mail:
Over here at Team Carly, while we are watching our ads on the airwaves increase in frequency, reports over the last couple of days confirm that Tom Campbell has canceled his television AND his radio time – all of it – for this week.
The Campbell camp is exhaling a lot of hot air as they struggle to come up with any good reason for why, but we sure have been amused by the excuses so far:
1. Campbell is going to move numbers with that larger-than-life photo of himself that he’s mailing Republicans. Newsflash, we too are sending mail to Republicans statewide…and it may or may not include a photo of Tom as well.
2. TV won’t break through because of the Steve-Meg slugfest. True, Tom’s less than $100,000 buy for this week really would not have been competition for Steve and Meg.
3. They are husbanding resources for an ad blitz in the final few weeks. Could be, but it seems if that were true, they would have reserved more than $200,000 in time over the final two weeks of the primary campaign.
4. They are ahead and are therefore holding resources for the general. Sounds like a bold move when more than one-third of voters are undecided in the primary.
5. Carly has bought $2.2 million in TV and has not moved in the polls. First, the majority of our ad buy has yet to air and more importantly, the polling out there on the primary race does not account for the time we have been on the air. But nice try on that one, Team Campbell.
6. And finally, my personal favorite: Tom is ahead in the polls so they don’t need to spend as much on TV. We really hope they believe their own spin there – because if they do, they certainly are not looking at the same polling we are!
Let’s be honest here. Tom would be on TV and radio if he had the money.
And, while Tom keeps inventing excuses, Carly keeps getting more endorsements. Today, she is in Orange County (in AD 70 to be precise) picking up the endorsements of a slew of local elected officials and prominent business organizations including Orange County Supervisor Bill Campbell, the Orange County Business Council and the Hispanic 100. She has a full public schedule the remainder of the week. Meanwhile, our statewide network of volunteers made thousands of calls to Republican voters over the weekend and will be phone banking daily between now and June 8.
Campbellâ€™s advisors are trying to spin this as a super-sneaky strategy to conserve funds, banking on the fact that Californiaâ€™s two billionaire Republican gubernatorial candidates, Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner, will crowd everyone out on television anyway. And maybe thereâ€™s a little truth to that. But far more likely is the fact that Campbell has run out of money. Heâ€™s never been a good fundraiser, having been chased out of the Governorâ€™s race for just that reason…
I surmise that Tom Campbell is running on empty and is saving whatever resources he has left to guard against a negative barrage from Carly Fiorina.
And, it will more than likely come and very soon.
Carly Fiorina Vs. Barbara Boxer
5/12/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
Favorable / Unfavorable
Barbara Boxer: 47 / 49 (chart)
Carly Fiorina: 38 / 39
Chuck DeVore: 35 / 33
Tom Campbell: 39 / 35
I have highlighted in bold above the margin of error in which all of the GOP candidate are within. Let’s look at the other candidate’s charts:
Now, Tom Campbell:
The campaigns and some pundits have been trying to spin this poll result as a “surge” for Chuck DeVore.
Look at the poll trends above and only Carly Fiorina has an upward graph trend. But, all of the results are within the margin of error anyway.
The only conclusion to be drawn here is that Senator Barbara Boxer is in trouble.