• Del.icio.us Links

    links for 2011-02-16

    • The problem is politicians haven’t done a very good job of explaining this to the American public. Daniels declines to speculate on whether or not he’ll run for president next year. But if he does, his aim will be to build support for a tough, specific fiscal agenda bolstered by sustainable, affordable health policy. Without that support, he says, there’d be little point in running: “Winning an election without a consensus is not worth very much.”

      +++++++

      Read it all

      A perspective from a Republican governor who knows America is in trouble

    • Republicans took the FCC to task for enacting a net neutrality order without any sound market-based analysis to justify it at a House hearing Wednesday.

      “The FCC has done nothing to specifically quantify any harm requiring intervention, or the potential harm to consumers, innovation or the economy from the proposed rules,” Chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee Fred Upton (R-Mich.) said during his opening remarks.

      ++++++

      What Obama cannot do legilsatively he is attempting an end-around with executive regulations.

      I don't think the Congress is going to let this stand.

    • When will my dear friend Ann start to address the substantive problems with Christie's actual positions or are we going to get another year of "only Christie can win" fortune cookie logic?

      Does she support his positions on: gun control, amnesty, the appointment of an Islamist to the bench, the green agenda, his campaigning for Mike Castle, his MIA on health care litigation, etc.; and how does she think this would energize the base outside of New Jersey? Has the Tea Party even in NJ been pushing for his candidacy? No. Yes, he's solid in his YouTube battles with teachers and his efforts to try and address NJ's budget problems, the outcome of which have yet to be determined. But the federal government is a vast enterprise that requires a solid conservative at the helm, especially now.

      Oh, and Ann, I backed Fred Thompson. He lost. I reluctantly wound up voting for McCain like millions of my fellow conservatives. Who did you back?
      ++++++
      Mark Levin has a point.

    • Nevertheless, this year’s Republican field is on the low end of popularity as compared to most recent ones — and early primary polls are meaningful enough that this is worth considering, along with other factors. The way that I would recommend thinking about Mr. Obama’s re-election chances, at this early stage, is to start with the baseline re-election rate for incumbent presidents (which is about 70 percent), and then make a list of other factors that might lead one to believe that this figure overestimates or underestimates them. Under the list of favorable factors for Mr. Obama, I would include a bullet-point for “Public has tepid view of Republican candidates; Republican nominee might be weaker than average.”

      Something for Republican strategists to worry about? Sure, if they enjoy worrying. But probably not something for them to lose any sleep over until and unless they are on the verge of nominating one of their more unpopular alternatives.
      ++++++
      GOP operatives are watching

    • The political press is eagerly awaiting the results of the straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference, which is supposed to serve as a barometer of the presidential candidate preferences of conservative elites. Unfortunately, if you look at CPAC's track record, the straw poll is not a meaningful predictor of eventual GOP presidential nominees.

      ++++++

      CPAC is worthless as an indicator but who shows up is an important show of organization.

    • At this stage of the presidential contest, "favorability" reflects public familiarity with the candidates. As the presidential race heats up, and candidates enter the public eye, partisan affiliations will kick in, and Republican-leaning voters will contribute to higher favorability ratings for the GOP slate. By the time the nominee is chosen, partisan rallying will ensure that the candidate has high favorability ratings, even if they began as a virtual unknown. At best, current polling for GOP candidates makes for interesting trivia, and Republicans should ignore it.

      ++++++

      I disagree.

      Early favorability polling will not only set the GOP Presidential Field but direct party resources vis a vis Congressonal/Senate races

  • Chris Christie

    Video: Chris Christie Addresses the American Enterprise Institute and Lays Out a National Vision

    Well, Ann Coulter wants New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to run for President and now Christie who says he is NOT running shows up in DC with a national agenda speech.

    Gov. Chris Christie today delivered a broadside against the broken politics of Washington and the need for straight talk to solve the country’s problems in a speech that will stoke talk of a 2012 presidential bid by the New Jersey Republican.

    “I look at what’s happening in Washington right now and I am worried,” said Christie in an address at the American Enterprise Institute. “What game is being played down here is irresponsible and it’s dangerous.”

    Asked whether he would consider running for president in 2012, Christie acknowledged that he “see[s] the opportunity” but quickly added: “That’s not a reason to be president of the United States.”

    And yet, Christie’s speech, which spanned roughly 45 minutes, had all the traditional markers of someone eyeing national office.

    “Leadership today in America has to be about doing the big things and being courageous,” said Christie. At another point, Christie argued that “we have to bring a new approach and a new discipline to this.”

    The national GOP could use Chris Christie but he must be vetted more. If indeed, he decides to open up discussions of a Presidential candidacy, his opponents will certainly do it for him.

    But, for now, Christie is a breath of fresh air and believe me on the Presidential stage, the GOP could use it.

  • Barack Obama,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Is President Obama Vulnerable?

    Yes, according to this latest PPP Poll.

    Despite his recent popularity spike there should be no mistaking it- Barack Obama is vulnerable for reelection. The problem for the GOP is that he’s a lot more vulnerable against generic Republicans than the actual Republicans looking at the race. Nevertheless there’s plenty of time for a lesser known GOP contender to rise from the back of the field and prove to be a strong contender, or maybe even for one of the current front runners to have an image makeover that makes them more viable in a general election.

    Republican chances of taking down Obama are going to depend a lot on the type of candidate the party puts forward. Tested against a generic Republican we find Obama tied at 47%. When you ask about a couple more specific types of GOP candidates though the numbers move in different directions. Against a generic moderate Republican candidate Obama actually trails by 2 points at 46-44. But when you ask voters whether they’d go for Obama or a Tea Party conservative Republican he leads by 4 points at 49-45.

    I think the RIGHT’S Ann Coulter’s observation that should the GOP nominate today’s front-runner Mitt Romney that President Obama would win re-election is causing a stir. The GOP needs new candidates and Ann likes the more moderate Chris Christie, the Governor of New Jersey – who by the way is giving a speech in DC today at the American Enterprise Institute.

    There’s a particularly large difference in how independents lean depending on the type of nominee the GOP ends up going with- they prefer a moderate Republican over Obama by 7 points, but they prefer Obama over a Tea Party style GOPer by 5 points. There’s no doubt Republican chances of defeating Obama will be best with a centrist. Whether the party base is really going to be willing to sacrifice some ideological purity to get that candidate is another question.

    What is interesting that Tony Perkins (Family Research Council), also a social conservative leader, has taken an appeasing tone towards Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels and his call for a “truce” on social issues.

    Maybe the RIGHT is learning and realize that the threat of Obama for another four years is far greater than electing a supposed RINO.

  • Barack Obama,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Job Approval 48% Vs. 41% Disapproval

    Graphic from Pollster

    The latest CBS poll from February 11-14, 2011 with a 3% margin of error.

    • 48% Approve, 41% Disapprove (chart)
    • Foreign Policy: 46 / 33 (chart)
    • Economy: 42 / 50 (chart)

    President Obama’s re-election will be all about the economy. If the payroll tax holiday (underway now) stimulates the economy and business feels more comfortable with the new GOP House and hires, Obama will cruise in 2012.

    If not, then he will be in deep trouble by September of this year.

  • President 2012

    President 2012: The GOP Primary Calendar – So Far

    Thanks to this fellow over at at Race for 2012 for the summary. You can see his color chart here.

    • May 2, 2011    Reagan Library / NBC News / Politico Debate    Simi Valley, CA
    • May 5, 2011    FOX News / South Carolina GOP Debate    Greenville, SC
    • June 7, 2011    CNN / NH Union Leader / WMUR-TV Debate    Manchester, NH
    • August 11, 2011    FOX News / Iowa GOP Straw Poll Debate    Ames, IA
    • August 13, 2001    Ames Straw Poll    Ames, IA
    • September 5 (week of), 2011    CNN / Tea Party Express Debate    Tampa, FL
    • October, 2011 (Date TBD)    FOX News / Florida GOP Debate    TBD
    • Oct/Nov (TBD)    Nevada GOP Straw Poll    Las Vegas, NV
    • November 5, 2011    Illinois GOP Straw Poll    Statewide
    • January 30, 2012    FOX News / Iowa GOP Debate    Sioux City, IA
    • February 6, 2012    Iowa Caucus  
    • Between February 7-13 (TBD)    ABC News / WMUR-TV Debate    Manchester, NH
    • February 14, 2012    New Hampshire Primary   
    • February 18, 2012    Nevada Caucus   
    • Between February 19-27 (TBD)    FOX News / South Carolina GOP Debate    TBD
    • February 28, 2012    South Carolina Primary   
    • March 5, 2012    Reagan Library Debate    Simi Valley, CA
    • March 6, 2012    Super Tuesday   
    • April 1, 2012    First eligible date for winner-take-all contests   

    There are a number of opportunities for the candidates to either forge ahead, stumble or make a come back. But, how will the field shake out by April 1?

    Who will have the funds for a long campaign?

    Stay tuned as the calendar changes, as do the candidates.