President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Another Good Week for Herman Cain But Watch Out for Newt
According to the latest PPP Poll.
PPP’s newest polls find him with a double digit lead in Wisconsin, and running only a point behind Mitt Romney in Nevada. This now makes 4 weeks in a row where Cain’s been on the top of our polls- in 9 surveys we’ve conducted over that period of time he’s held the lead in 8 with this Nevada poll serving as the only exception.
In Wisconsin Cain’s at 30% to 18% for Romney, 12% each for Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry, 8% for Ron Paul, 5% for Michele Bachmann, 2% for Rick Santorum, and 1% each for Jon Huntsman and Gary Johnson.
In Nevada Romney’s at 29% to 28% for Cain, 15% for Gingrich, 7% for Paul, 6% for Perry, 3% for Bachmann, 2% for Santorum and Huntsman, and 0% for Johnson.
Cain’s numbers continue to represent a huge amount of momentum. He’s gained 21 points from late July in Nevada, when he was at 7%. And he’s gained 23 points from mid-August in Wisconsin where he was also at 7%. It’s the Tea Party that continues to drive Cain’s support. He’s up 37-19 on Romney with those voters in Nevada with Gingrich in second at 20%. And in Wisconsin he gets 37% with them as well with Gingrich at 17%, Perry at 12%, and Romney all the way back in a tie for 4th with Ron Paul at 8%.
One thing that does remain a problem for Cain is that his voters are not strongly committed- only 41% in Nevada say that they’ll definitely vote for him, compared to 59% of Romney’s supporters who say they’re all in. And in Wisconsin just 29% of his voters say they’re firmly in his camp compared to 34% for Romney. Cain’s support is broad at this point- but it’s not deep.
But, who is lurking in third place and ahead of Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann?
Newt Gingrich.
Besides Cain the other candidate in the race who continues to quietly have some momentum is Newt Gingrich. He finishes a solo third in Nevada and ties for third in Wisconsin but beyond that the shift in his favorability numbers over the last 5 months tells quite a story. In May Gingrich was at a -21 spread (28/49) with Wisconsin Republicans. Now he’s at +12 (50/38) representing a 33 point improvement over that period of time. His 12% support in Wisconsin is up from 6% in August and his 15% in Nevada is up from 6% in July.
Remember the ad war will be between Perry and Romney since they have all of the campaign cash. If Perry is successful in taking Romney down, it could very well be Newt Gingrich who emerges.
Herman Cain will doing well with some in the GOP, does not possess the campaign organization or money to wage a long term war for the nomination against Romney or Perry or even Gingrch for that matter.