Polling,  President 2012

President 2012 Nevada Poll Watch: Romney 46% Vs. Obama 46%

Barack Obama continues to suffer from the Nevada blues. Only 44% of voters there approve of him to 53% disapproving and he ties Mitt Romney in a state that he won by 12 points in 2008. Along with New Hampshire, Nevada is probably the swing state where Obama has fallen the furthest.

There are two main things causing Obama problems in the Silver State. He’s under water with independents, at 42/53.  And he’s lost a lot of support with Democrats, only 78% of whom approve of him with 17% disapproving. He’s also at 6/94 with Republicans, but that’s pretty much par for the course. His hopes for any meaningful amount of crossover support faded a long time ago. While Obama’s in good standing with Hispanics and African Americans in the state, he’s at a woeful 36/61 with white voters, mirroring his trouble with them nationally.

As unpopular as Obama is, there’s only one Republican who can catch up with him in the state and that’s Mitt Romney. They tie at 46%. Romney has an unusual amount of appeal to Nevada Democrats- 27% of them have a favorable opinion of him and 13% say they would vote for him in a hypothetical match up with Obama. That’s what sets him apart from the rest of the GOP field.

Obama leads the rest of the Republicans, but he doesn’t match his 2008 margin of victory against any of them. He’s up 49-46 against both Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich, 47-43 against Ron Paul, and 49-41 against Michele Bachmann. Paul is actually the only one of the Republicans who leads Obama among independents, 45-43.
Here is a summary:
  • 49% Obama (D), 41% Bachmann (R)
  • 49% Obama (D), 46% Cain (R)
  • 49% Obama (D), 46% Gingrich (R)
  • 47% Obama (D), 43% Paul (R)
  • 51% Obama (D), 41% Perry (R)
  • 46% Obama (D), 46% Romney (R)
Nevada is a key battleground state that the GOP needs to win the Presidency next year. There are scenarios where the entire Presidential race depends upon how Nevada votes.

Look for intense television and direct mail advertising by both sides in Nevada. But, are there that many voters that can be persuaded?

Well, both parties will try and spend $ millions.