California Special Election Watch: New Poll Results
A new California Special Election Poll has been released by SurveyUSA.
Data Collected: 09/30/2005 – 10/02/2005
Release Date: 10/03/2005 12:25 PM ET
Sponsoring News Organizations: KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco
Analysis: In an election today, 10/3/05, 36 days to the 11/8/05 vote, California voters approve Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76 and Proposition 77, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll of 532 likely voters. Proposition 74, on teacher tenure, passes today by 11 points, 55% to 44%. Propositions 73, 75, 76, and 77 all pass by at least 20 points. Republicans support all 5 Propositions by at least a 57-point margin. Democrats oppose all 5 Propositions by at least a 10-point margin. Support for all 5 measures is strongly tied to approval of Governor Schwarzenegger. Those who approve of the job the Governor is doing, vote overwhelming “Yes” on all 5 Propositions. Those who disapprove of the job the Governor is doing oppose all 5 Propositions. Interest in ballot measures intensifies as the election approaches and ad dollars are spent to influence voters. These numbers can and should be expected to fluctuate, perhaps significantly.
Summary:
59% Yes
39% No
2% Undecided
55% Yes
44% No
2% Undecided
60% Yes
37% No
3% Undecided
58% Yes
36% No
6% Undecided
59% Yes
36% No
5% Undecided
An interesting result.
Contrast this poll with the latest PPIC poll.
Thirty days from election day…….let the media campaign begin.
Has anyone done an analysis as to who will actually bother to go to the polls and vote?
Update #1
Dan Weintraub of the Sacramento Bee has his take on the poll, Poll shows gov’s measures ahead.
The Schwarzenegger camp is touting the first public poll to show the governor’s initiatives leading. You can find it here. It’s a SurveyUSA poll done for some California television stations. The firm’s polls have taken flak in the past because they use recorded voices to question voters. But they do have a decent track record. One thing unique about this particular poll is that it uses very short, simple (but accurate) questions on the ballot measures instead of the more legalistic ballot language preferred by the established California public polls, like Field and PPIC. The biggest difference between this poll’s results and earlier public polls is that this one shows independents siding with Schwarzenegger rather than against him.
Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77
Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page
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