California Special Election Watch: New Poll Results

A new California Special Election Poll has been released by SurveyUSA.

Data Collected: 09/30/2005 – 10/02/2005
Release Date: 10/03/2005 12:25 PM ET
Sponsoring News Organizations: KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco

Analysis: In an election today, 10/3/05, 36 days to the 11/8/05 vote, California voters approve Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76 and Proposition 77, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll of 532 likely voters. Proposition 74, on teacher tenure, passes today by 11 points, 55% to 44%. Propositions 73, 75, 76, and 77 all pass by at least 20 points. Republicans support all 5 Propositions by at least a 57-point margin. Democrats oppose all 5 Propositions by at least a 10-point margin. Support for all 5 measures is strongly tied to approval of Governor Schwarzenegger. Those who approve of the job the Governor is doing, vote overwhelming “Yes” on all 5 Propositions. Those who disapprove of the job the Governor is doing oppose all 5 Propositions. Interest in ballot measures intensifies as the election approaches and ad dollars are spent to influence voters. These numbers can and should be expected to fluctuate, perhaps significantly.

Summary:

Proposition 73: First, Proposition 73. Proposition 73 requires that physicians notify the parent of a pregnant minor at least 48 hours before performing an abortion. If the special election were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, would you vote Yes on Proposition 73? Or would you vote No?

59% Yes
39% No
2% Undecided

Proposition 74: Next, Proposition 74. Proposition 74 extends the probationary period for new teachers from 2 years to 5 years, and makes it easier to dismiss teachers with unsatisfactory performance evaluations. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 74? Or would you vote No?

55% Yes
44% No
2% Undecided

Proposition 75: Next, Proposition 75. Proposition 75 prohibits public employee unions from using union dues for political purposes without the written consent of union members. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 75? Or would you vote no?

60% Yes
37% No
3% Undecided

Proposition 76: Next, Proposition 76. Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 76? Or would you vote no?

58% Yes
36% No
6% Undecided

Proposition 77: Finally, Proposition 77. Proposition 77 changes the way California draws boundaries for Congressional and legislative districts. District boundaries would be drawn by a panel of retired judges and approved by voters in a statewide election. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on 77? Or would you vote no?

59% Yes
36% No
5% Undecided

An interesting result.

Contrast this poll with the latest PPIC poll.

Thirty days from election day…….let the media campaign begin.

Has anyone done an analysis as to who will actually bother to go to the polls and vote?

Update #1

Dan Weintraub of the Sacramento Bee has his take on the poll, Poll shows gov’s measures ahead.

The Schwarzenegger camp is touting the first public poll to show the governor’s initiatives leading. You can find it here. It’s a SurveyUSA poll done for some California television stations. The firm’s polls have taken flak in the past because they use recorded voices to question voters. But they do have a decent track record. One thing unique about this particular poll is that it uses very short, simple (but accurate) questions on the ballot measures instead of the more legalistic ballot language preferred by the established California public polls, like Field and PPIC. The biggest difference between this poll’s results and earlier public polls is that this one shows independents siding with Schwarzenegger rather than against him.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page