Patrick Ruffini’s 2008 Presidential Poll for August: Poll Results

Poll Results are out for August, The Big One: Results & Analysis.

As of 7 a.m. EDT on August 26, with a whopping 16,437 votes cast, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani wins the Big One with 30.0%. Virginia Senator George Allen places second with 20.1%, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is a strong third at 14.3%, and Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney finishes fourth with 9.1%. On the fantasy ballot, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice laps the field with 37.7%, with Vice President Dick Cheney at 14.0%, Florida Governor Jeb Bush at 9.2%, and former Senator Fred Thompson at 8.1%. All four fantasy candidates finished above the main ballot candidates when voters were asked if they would switch their votes – among other things, a possible ballot design issue.

Changes from Last Month: George Allen won last month’s five way match-up over Giuliani by 37.2% to 30.7%. The two polls are not an apples-to-apples comparison since the field was opened up to more candidates. However, the July poll was (and is) still active on the sidebar; 764 votes were received on the five-way poll during the August voting, with the results as follows: Allen 36.1%, Giuliani 30.4%, Romney 11.1%, McCain 9.8%, and Frist 8.6%. So, little change in underlying opinion since July. What’s noteworthy here is that Giuliani effectively keeps all of his support when the field is opened up, but Allen loses about 16 points of his, suggesting that conservatives are still shopping around for a candidate. Mitt Romney keeps all but two points of his support – Giuliani and Romney may be gaining positive support from voters who like them and are not just voting against the field.

Guiliani will be a formidable candidate.

Now comes the really fun part – the state by state. Overall, Rudy wins in 39 states and the District of Columbia, Allen takes 8, favorite sons Brownback and Huckabee take their home states, and Romney crushes the field in Utah. I’ll take these by candidate, highlighting their strongholds. You can crunch the real time data on this page.

Flap does not foresee any conservative candidate or John McCain overtaking him.

A Guiliani – Rice ticket in November 2008 would be hard for Clinton – Richardson to beat.