The Sacramento Bee has Governor’s far behind on 2 issues, Spending limits and redistricting trail, while teacher tenure holds onto poll lead.

Two of the three initiatives Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has proposed to fix California government are losing badly and a third is trending in the same direction – toward defeat, according to a new Field Poll.

A fourth initiative aimed at the financial heart of Schwarzenegger’s union-funded political opposition continues to hold a substantial lead, although a huge bankroll of labor-generated campaign cash poses a threat to the measure.

The Field Poll is here.

Proposition 75 (Public Employee Union Dues) Paycheck Protection:

In its latest statewide survey, The Field Poll finds the Yes side on Prop. 75 maintaining a large
twenty-three point lead, unchanged from an earlier poll in June.

This measure would prohibit public employee labor organizations from using dues or fees from its
members for political contributions unless the employee provides prior written consent. Currently, 55% of likely voters favor the measure, while 32% are on the No side. This division of sentiment is virtually the same as was found in June, when it was 57% Yes and 34% No. Democrats and non-partisans are only narrowly supporting Prop. 75, while Republicans are overwhelmingly in favor 71% to 22%. Men and women, as well as voters in Southern and Northern California, currently favor Prop. 75.

Proposition 74 (Public School Teacher’s Tenure)

The Yes side on Prop. 74 continues to lead by nine points (46% to 37%), its preference margin is down from a twenty-nine point lead in June.

Prop. 74 is a measure called the “Public School Teachers: Waiting Period for Permanent Status;
Dismissal” initiative. It would increase the probationary period for public school teachers from
two to five years and modifies the process by which school boards can dismiss teaching employees who have received two consecutive unsatisfactory performance evaluations. The current poll shows that there has also been a big change in voter sentiment on this proposition. In June the Yes side had a large two-to-one lead – 61% to 32%. Now, Prop. 74 leads only narrowly, 46% Yes to 37% No.
While the Yes side maintains the lead overall, the poll shows that shifts in the opinion away from
Yes to No have among all voter sub-groups.

Proposition 76 (State Spending and School Funding Limits)

The measure which is reportedly the linchpin of the government reform measures being backed by
Governor Schwarzenegger is Prop. 76, the “School Spending and State Spending” initiative. According to its official ballot summary, Prop. 76 would limit state spending to prior year levels
plus the average revenue growth of the three previous years. It would also change the minimum
school funding requirements under Prop. 98 and permits the Governor to reduce state budgets
under certain circumstances. After being read this summary, the likely voters interviewed in this survey were asked how they would vote if the election were being held today. Statewide, 65% say they would vote No, 19%would vote Yes and 16% are undecided. This represents a big increase in opposition to Prop. 76 from what was found in an earlier June Field Poll, when its lead was only seven points (42% to 35%). Remarkably, majorities or pluralities across all voter subgroups, Democrats, Republicans, nonpartisans, men, women, Southern and Northern California, say they are disposed to vote No on Prop. 76.

Proposition 77 (Redistricting)

There has been no significant change in the voter preferences on Prop. 77 over the past two
months. The No side is leading 46% to 32%, about where it was in June.

Prop. 77 amends the state constitution’s process for redistricting California’s Senate, Assembly,
Congressional and Board of Equalization districts. In both the June and late August surveys more voters were inclined to vote No than Yes by margins of eleven to fourteen points. Democrats and non-partisans are strongly opposed to Prop. 77, while Republicans are supporting it. Women are strongly opposed 47% to 23%, while men only slightly so (45% to 42%). Opposition to the initiative is somewhat less among voters who had some prior knowledge of the initiative prior to their being surveyed than among voters who had not heard of the measure.

Proposition 80 (Electric Service Providers Regulation)

Prop. 80 subjects electric service providers to regulation by the California Public Utilities
Commission, restricts consumers’ ability to switch from private utilities to other providers, and
requires that all retail suppliers of electricity increase their renewal energy resource purchases by
2010.
Only a relatively small proportion (17%) of voters were aware of this initiative, which has not
been getting as much media attention as the other propositions.
Voter sentiment at this time divides almost evenly into three groups: 33% Yes, 35% No and 32% undecided.

Good news for Proposition 75 in the polls and in that the special interest public employee unions are commiting some serious campaign cash to defeat it. Campaign money that will not be available next year, particularly since the national labor movement is in disarray and declining.

Flap has always thought Proposition 76 and 77 were dog of initiatives. The voters don’t understand and most folks do not care about such measures. This is inside Sacramento politics and voters are disinterested – no matter how much is spent on a media campaign.

When Proposition 76 goes down, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is free to raise taxes to balance the California state budget and raise he will….. with the consent of the electorate.

When Propositiion 77 fails, then the Governor can blame the gerrymandered Democrat legislature for spending the state bankrupt.

Flap recommends the Governor concentrate his resources on:

1. Proposition 75 (Paycheck Protection)

2. His re-election campaign fund

California business who will be affected by the coming state tax increases better get busy supporting the Governor because they know that an Angelides or Westly governorship will mean even HIGHER taxes and MORE regulation – all controlled by the public employee unions.

Oh, by the way, the Governor has already won the special election.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 74, Proposition 80

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page