United States Senate 2006 Election Watch: Has the GOP Bottomed Out?
Powerline: Has the GOP bottomed out?
Perhaps so.
Let’s look at the races over at Election Projection.
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The Senate:
Current: 55 GOP, 44 DEM, 1 IND
Projected: 50 GOP, 48 DEM, 2 IND
DEM +4, GOP -5, IND +1
| State | Major Candidates | Projected Result |
| Arizona | Jon Kyl (R)-inc vs Jim Pederson (D) | Mod GOP Hold |
| California | Dianne Feinstein (D)-inc vs Richard Mountjoy (R) | Strong DEM Hold |
| Connecticut | Lieberman(I) / Lamont(D) / Schlesinger(R) | Mod IND Gain |
| Delaware | Tom Carper (D)-inc vs Jan Ting? (R) | Strong DEM Hold |
| Florida | Bill Nelson (D)-inc vs Katherine Harris? (R) | Strong DEM Hold |
| Hawaii | Daniel Akaka (D)-inc vs Cynthia Thielen (R) | Strong DEM Hold |
| Indiana | Richard Lugar (R)-inc (unopposed) | Strong GOP Hold |
| Maine | Olympia Snowe (R)-inc vs Jean Hay Bright (D) | Strong GOP Hold |
| Maryland | OPEN: Ben Cardin (D) vs Michael Steele (R) | Mod DEM Hold |
| Massachusetts | Ted Kennedy (D)-inc vs Kenneth Chase (R) | Strong DEM Hold |
| Michigan | Debbie Stabenow (D)-inc vs Mike Bouchard (R) | Mod DEM Hold |
| Minnesota | OPEN: Amy Klobuchar (D) vs Mark Kennedy (R) | Mod DEM Hold |
| Mississippi | Trent Lott (R)-inc vs Erik Fleming (D) | Strong GOP Hold |
| Missouri | Jim Talent (R)-inc vs Claire McCaskill (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| Montana | Conrad Burns (R)-inc vs Jon Tester (D) | Mod DEM Gain |
| Nebraska | Ben Nelson (D)-inc vs Peter Ricketts (R) | Strong DEM Hold |
| Nevada | John Ensign (R)-inc vs Jack Carter (D) | Strong GOP Hold |
| New Jersey | Robert Menendez (D)-inc vs Tom Kean, Jr. (R) | Weak DEM Hold |
| New Mexico | Jeff Bingaman (D)-inc vs Allen McCulloch (R) | Strong DEM Hold |
| New York | Hillary Clinton (D)-inc vs John Spencer (R) | Strong DEM Hold |
| North Dakota | Kent Conrad (DNL)-inc vs Dwight Grotberg (R) | Strong DEM Hold |
| Ohio | Mike DeWine (R)-inc vs Sherrod Brown (D) | Mod DEM Gain |
| Pennsylvania | Rick Santorum (R)-inc vs Bob Casey, Jr. (D) | Mod DEM Gain |
| Rhode Island | L. Chafee (R)-inc vs S. Whitehouse (D) | Mod DEM Gain |
| Tennessee | OPEN: Bob Corker (R) vs Harold Ford, Jr. (D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| Texas | Kay Hutchison (R)-inc vs Barbara Radnofsky (D) | Strong GOP Hold |
| Utah | Orrin Hatch (R)-inc vs Pete Ashdown (D) | Strong GOP Hold |
| Vermont | OPEN: Bernie Sanders (I) vs Richard Tarrant (R) | Strong IND Hold |
| Virginia | George Allen (R)-inc vs James Webb, Jr. (D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| Washington | Maria Cantwell (D)-inc vs Mike McGavick (R) | Mod DEM Hold |
| West Virginia | Robert Byrd (D)-inc vs John Raese (R) | Strong DEM Hold |
| Wisconsin | Herb Kohl (D)-inc vs Robert Lorge (R) | Strong DEM Hold |
| Wyoming | Craig Thomas (R)-inc vs Dale Groutage (D) | Strong GOP Hold |
| BOLD – party turnover
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| Race ratings:
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| For projected margins of victory, click here | ||
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Real Clear Politics has 2006 Senate RealClearPolitics Poll Averages
Not so optimistic at RCP with a net GOP loss of 6 seats and control of the Senate.
Certainly the political consensus is the GOP has already lost the House and MAY lose the Senate. But, the question remains: Has the GOP bottomed out?
Will the last weeks campaign strategy and superior GOTV programs be enough?
Stay tuned …….
Previous:
United States House 2006 Election Watch: Rush Limbaugh and the Coming GOP DEBACLE
Michael Ramirez on the Coming GOP Debacle
United States House 2006 Election Watch: SEA OF BLUE
Election 2006 Watch: The Coming Republican DEBACLE
Technorati Tags: Election2006, GOP, Democrats
One Comment
endorendil
As long as the GOP hasn’t come up with a way to win in Iraq and Afghanistan, and limit the loss in Iran and North Korea, it will continue to fall in the polls. The GOP is inextricably tied to all four failures. It will live or die with them.