John McCain,  Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney As Vice President – The Effect on the Electoral College Map

July 28, 2008 /
Mitt Romney endorses John McCain

Mitt Romney endorsed John McCain for President in February 2008

In the continuing discussion of John McCain’s possible choice of Mitt Romney as his Vice President running mate comes this piece evaluating Romney’s effect on the Electoral College map.

As for the McCain team, they have ample reason to select Romney, but they need to understand that his strengths don’t necessarily match the conventional wisdom. Romney’s base tends neither to be evangelicals nor Reagan Democrats, but instead, middle- and upper-class fiscal conservatives who value lower taxes and stricter immigration policies and who are probably relatively satisfied with the status quo. This describes a significant number of independent voters in states like Colorado. However, if the Republicans throw Romney out there and try to turn him into a populist, they’ll be in for a long campaign.

Nate’s analysis is essentially the same as Flap’s here.

Mitt Romney has his strengths and weaknesses. What it will come down to is the polling in Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico – all toss-up states.

Will John McCain play it safe with Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty as is the conventional wisdom or roll the dice with Mitt Romney?

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54 Comments

  • ALS

    July 28, 2008 at 11:54 am

    Romney is more GENUINE that any candidate on the national scene!! Obama changes his positions daily–on the surge, on finance reform, etc. etc. Isn’t Obama more of a charlatan than anyone who has run in the campaigns? Even McCain did not have the integrity to maintain his first marriage. Romney realized he was wrong and changed his mind on abortion etc. What is wrong with changing your opinion when you realize you are mistaken? Only a GENUINE, honest man can have a longlasting good marriage, a united strong family, success in business and with the Winter Olympics, and the respect of both religious and nonreligious citizens. It seems some badmouth Romney because they fear him because of his integrity and honesty. Remember the numbers that voted for him and the huge numbers that did not want him to drop out!

  • Flap

    July 28, 2008 at 3:31 pm

    Sean Hannity today was hyping Romney again. Gee, Mitt REALLY wants it.

    McCain would be better off choosing Carly Fiorina than Mitt Romney if he wants a business executive.

  • Dennis

    July 28, 2008 at 7:06 pm

    ALS,

    Romney genuine: what are you smoking!! The guy is an absolute political fraud, who when he sought the Republican nomination changed his prior positions on at least six major issues. His only core belief is to say what he believes is the most politically expedient at the moment.

    He outspent his opponents by a ratio of four-five and still lost. Most americans don’t want him. Rombots should admit the fact.

  • madisonicon@yahoo.com

    July 28, 2008 at 9:09 pm

    DENNIS AND FLAP, OR WHATEVER YOUR NAMES ARE. YOU BOTH ARE THE BIGGEST FOOLS I’VE HEARD IN A WHILE. CLEARLY SOMETHING IS WRONG WITH BOTH OF YOU. I SUSPECT ANTI MORMON, EVEN THOUGH YOU WON’T ADMIT IT. NOW I DON’T KNOW THAT, BUT HOW CAN YOU BLAME. IT DEFIES ALL LOGIC AND IS NOT IN HARMONY WITH SOMEBODY WHO HAS A BRAIN AS WELL AS CHARACTER AND INTEGRITY. MITT IS THE ONLY PERSON TO BE STRAIGHT FORWARD ABOUT HIS, WHICH WAS NOT A PERSONAL CHANGE, BUT WHAT HE THOUGHT GOVERMENTS ROLE SHOULD BE. HE RAN AND SAID HE WOULD SUPPORT THE LAWS AS THEY ARE AND IN THAT SENSE HE WAS EFFECTIVE PRO CHOICE, BUT HE WAS PERSONALLY PRO LIFE. EVIDENTLY YOU GUYS CANT THINK FOR YOURSELF AND HAVE BEEN DECIEVED BY THE MEDIA AND HIS ENEMYS. I HOPE YOU GUYS WERENT HUCKABEE SUPPORTERS. HE RAN THE MOST UNAMERICAN BIGOTED CAMPAIGN”DISHONEST” EVER. KEEP IN MIND MCCAIN LIED TO WIN FLORIDA AND OBAMA LIED HIS WHOLE WAY THROUGH THE PRIMARIES, OR DECIEVED. EVERYONE CHANGED POSITIONS MORE THAN ROMNEY, THERE WAS NOT SIX CHANGES ON POSISTIOS BY ROMNEY. THATS QUITE AN EXAGERATION, SO MAYBE YOU GUYS CAN STOP LYING TO EVERYBODY.
    “

  • Duchess

    July 28, 2008 at 10:18 pm

    There are many of us out there that think Mitt Romney is the very best choice in the Veepstakes. I continue to stand by my man, Mitt, regardless of any of the mean-spirited and illogical accusations you make against him. This country is headed for catastrophic concerns should Obama become president and we need to get behind those who can defeat Obama at all cost. Mitt and McCain–they can do it!

  • aaron

    July 28, 2008 at 10:46 pm

    Duches, it’s nice to hear from a decent person who acknowledges the mean spirit towards Romney, it makes no sense. It’s Ok to call Romney everything in the book and make up lies about him, but when people are called on it, they freak out. I just saw Huckabee on Hannity and Colmbs, as well as last night and the guy is still wineing, as to were I’ve never seen Romney bitter or winey once. People need to open there eyes. The whole case for Pawlenty is actually help Romney, in justifying and preparing peoples mind for a northern strategy, which Huckabee”Southern Evangelical, respectfully” does’nt seem to happy about. This guy is so jealous of Romney and can’t even stand the thought of him coming even near the Presidency and it has alot more to do with Romney being Mormon. He is just purely full of jealousy. Anyways goodnight.

  • Duchess

    July 28, 2008 at 10:58 pm

    Aaron,

    I can’t agree more with you. I used to have some respect for Huckabee in the beginning days of the campaign, but after I saw the bigotry and underhanded remarks made by him towards a decent man like Mitt Romney, that totally soured me on Huckabee. Some of his antics appeared to be very un-Christianlike coming from a Baptist preacher. I couldn’t have been more pleased when the man finally stepped out of the race. I am all for character and integrity as I sift among the presidential hopefuls and vice presidential candidates. Mitt Romney continues to come out on top in my assessment. He’s a genius in business and conducts himself like a president. No more of the likes of a Mr. Clinton in the White House.

  • Flap

    July 29, 2008 at 6:33 am

    Mike Huckabee is a good man and not a bigot. Huckabee merely contrasted his political opinions with that of Romney who unmercifully attacked him with paid contrast television commercials.

    Romney did the same to McCain and violated the GOP’s 11 commandment.

  • 2thePoint

    July 29, 2008 at 9:50 am

    Do you remember why HUCKABEE was #6 on Judicial Watch’s list of the TEN MOST WANTED CORRUPT POLITICIANS OF 2007? “Huckabee’s career has been colored by 14 ethics complaints and a volley of questions about his integrity, ranging from his management of campaign cash to his use of a nonprofit organization to subsidize his income to his destruction of state computer files on his way out of the governor’s office. And what was Governor Huckabee’s response to these ethics allegations? Rather than cooperating with investigators, Huckabee sued the state ethics commission twice and attempted to shut the ethics process down.”

    In 2006, when Huckabee was governor of Arkansas the Cato Institute gave him an “F” on his term for several reasons; chief among them “insisting on raising taxes at almost every turn throughout his final term.” The article notes that Huckabee was the only presidential candidate AGAINST school choice. See: http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=8838

    In 2006, the Club for Growth revealed the habitual tax-hiking of Huckabee: He signed a three cent gas tax increase in 1999, called for a state sales tax hike in 200, signed a 25-cent cigarette tax hike in 2003, allowed a major tax hike package to pass in 2004. He increased spending 65.3% from 1996 to 2004. (Tax and spending info provided by Americans for Tax Reform)

    During his years as governor, Huckabee granted clemency to convicted criminals an average of about once every four days. (http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=3976341)

    FLIP – FLOPPER Huckabee pushed for in-state college tuition breaks and scholarships for illegals. http://myclob.pbwiki.com/Huckabee+Lies Now, he claims he’s all for controlling the borders and ousting illegals. FLIP-FLOPPER Huckabee supported a federal smoking ban and now no longer supports it. http://hotair.com/archives/2008/01/15/pandermania-huckabee-no-longer-supports-federal-smoking-ban/

    How about Huckabee’s negative ad against Romney that was cleared to air – didn’t air – but aired for the press? And Huckabee’s Christmas ad with the floating cross? Ed Rollins, former Huckabee campaign manager, has admitted that the “floating cross” and “negative ad that wasn’t” etc., were all really ploys to get free media – which means that HUCKABEE WAS LYING ALL ALONG. (http://www.mediabistro.com/fishbowlny/news/huckabees_notsodivine_intervention_84634.asp?c=rss)

    What about Mike’s bigoted statements about Romney’s religion? (too many sources to list…) What about the open letter advertisement to Senator McCain by Huckabee supporters warning him not to choose Romney for VP and their NoMittforVP website ? http://www.govnotgod.org/pdfs/NoMittPrescottAZ.pdf Huckabee admits having received an email about it before it was published but claims he had nothing to do with it. Huckabee also said of the anti-Romney ad that he “has no position on it one way or the other.” Many believe Huckabee had a finger in this ad. Huckabee’s post-primary comments that he didn’t try to “buy the presidency and that’s a good thing” are still meant to smear Romney. He just can’t give it up.

    Mitt Romney SHARES the same conservative values as evangelicals. His ACTIONS have proven it. Romney can help our crippled nation economically. His very life is one long list of accomplishments – of DOING. ROMNEY IS A GOOD MAN AND WANTS TO HELP OUR CONSERVATIVE CAUSE. HE’S ON THE SAME SIDE AS EVANGELICALS. We need him as Veep for many reasons.: to rectify wasteful government spending, set us on the right track for energy independence, eliminate titanic trade deficits, do away with ineffective federal bureaucracies, streamline current federal programs so we actually GET what we pay for, help grow small businesses, encourage off-shore companies to return to the states, close our gaping open-gate borders, clean up our public debt to China and Japan, and do something about our devalued U.S. dollar that cheapens U.S. assets.

    How many times have we heard that government is inefficient and should be run like a business? The United States is in grave financial straits. In Romney, we have a chance to get REAL business knowledge with proven results in Washington.

  • Flap

    July 29, 2008 at 10:05 am

    The Romney supporters are not making it easy for Evangelicals to ever support him in the future. Writing the Christian right off it looks like to me.

  • aaron

    July 29, 2008 at 10:17 am

    Keep, in mind Huckabee was hitting Romney way below the belt, before Romney ran those adds, which were fair and nice adds. Huckabee ofcourse got people to think it was vicious attacking, nothing could be farther from the truth. If there was anything on Romneys part it was a difference in opinion or interpretation of things. Huckabee however lied deliberately and knowingly, saying Romney believed in a set timetable, ofcourse he was following McCain, who used Huckabee. Romney was not the person going around making lies and illiciting negative feelings on ones religion. Also it’s known people that worked for him were making robo calls about Romney faith. Also one of his children on his official website was blogging back and forth, saying the Mormon Church is a cult ect, ect, ect. Romney needed to be defeated. This was published on very credible websites, with links to Huckabees. If he’s not a mormon bigot then I don’t what is. It’s sad, because this will come back to bite evangelicals. Dividing the nation, rather than uniting. I think James Dobson is affraid Romney will steal the family issue from him. Also the lie about the 50 dollar co pay in the Mass. Health Care Plan, for something having to do with abortion. Huck said Romney put that in the bill. Thats not true, the most liberal statehouse in the country put that in. Anyways, I’ve found Huck supporters to be following very emotional talking points and sound bites, regaurdless of weather there true or not. Aaron

  • aaron

    July 29, 2008 at 10:27 am

    Swollow your pride and don’t let it get in the way of hurting this country. The current Pres. is evangelical, McCain is Baptist and so is Pawlently, who won’t be chosen. Why is it that some of you guys got to have an evangelcal allways, even as the nominee”McCain” and Pawlenty as Vice Pres. It is beyond belief to me. Listen, I have many evangelical friends, there good people, that I look up to, but this bullying and manipulating the process has gone to far. Humble yourself and come around, or you will be left in the dust. Most evangelicals are good people and will vote for Romney. AARON

  • GOP AL

    July 29, 2008 at 11:29 am

    Wow, isn’t strange how the Mitt supporters’ (aaron and 2thepoint) comments are filled with substance not just with angry reteric (flap and dennis) from the huck-duck groupies.

  • aaron

    July 29, 2008 at 11:29 am

    Thanks, for the link, but it’s probably a bunch of Hocus Pocus. Have you read the new artice at Washington Times”Evangelicals warn against Romney McCain ticket” I’m freakin lovin this. This is going to be interesting. It is comedy.

  • aaron

    July 29, 2008 at 11:49 am

    The wall street article is of no consequence. Most americans will not be able to understand all those complicated details. The Dems would make a mistake to take to much time on it. Romney did not create the most perfect health care plan ever to be formed on Gods green earth, but most importantly, he took a huge and bold and couragious step, the first ever. The guy is not talk and is a historic underestimated figure. He died and came back on his Mormon Mission in France, while his dad was running for Pres. He speaks French and as far as i’m concerned, all this emotional hype over historic candidates”Barrack, Hillary” is increasing the nature of his eventual succes and historic Presidency, as well as the fierce opposition towards him, of which I am grateful for. AARON

  • Flap

    July 29, 2008 at 11:52 am

    The Wall Street Journal article is another policy difference I have with Romney. Not his Mormonism but his leftward tilt on many issues.

  • aaron

    July 29, 2008 at 11:53 am

    I think Palin will be Romneys Vice eventually. I do like her, very much. She is pue and truly a good and strong women, but she makes no sense next to McCain. Remember, Romney works with a female partner very well. Lt. Gov. Healey of Mass. He broke from the norm and chose her. AARON

  • LEEWPATRICK

    July 29, 2008 at 5:29 pm

    ARE YOU ALL CRAZY OR LIBERALS?? THE ONLY WAY FOR MCCAIN TO GET THE JOB DONE IS WITH MITT. MITT SAID HE WILL AND IF MCCAIN PICKS ONE OF THOSE NOBODYKNOWS PEOPLE HE WILL MOST LIKELY GO DOWN THE TUBES. SAD ITS AMAZING THE AMOUNT OF GARBAGE THAT COMES FROM SOME PEOPLE. THE NEXT TIME YOU ARE OT TOO BUSY READ SOME HISTORY BOOKS ON POLITICS.

  • pcn

    July 30, 2008 at 6:52 am

    Mitt Romney is the best choice. He is smart, he complements McCain in every way. He will get the right message out that Obama is an amateur and we can’t take that chance in these uncertain times. The evangelicals will vote will not stay home if there is any chance that Obama will be POTUS especially with the Dems holding the house and senate and an aging supreme court. Mitt Romney is the smart choice.

  • aaron

    July 30, 2008 at 3:23 pm

    Peolple ahve said” Romney, his looks and his religion will overshadow McCain” Well duhh people, thats exactly what McCain needs, at least a little. Remember, he’s the oldest nominee ever and has health problems . Anyways if we get into a fight over which Church someone goes to, than I think that will backfire on Obama. There is potential for endless videos of racism, ego and hate, as well as some real anti american statements, from Obamas church. The Mormon Church is as patriotic as they come, born in the US. It’s simply a few bigots towards mormons on the extreme right. This however is a election thts about a handfull of key states. Romney for so many reasons is by far McCains best pick and hope to win key states. AARON

  • Harvey

    August 1, 2008 at 11:40 pm

    Hey,all these guys have flipp,flopped ,but Obama flip flp[s best! If they were women…It’s a womans privledge to change her mind! So what ,when we become more educated on subjects,sometimes we have to change our minds.Why would we want a stick in the mud who is too rigid to change his mind?? Romney is best cause he will look better to younger voters.the guy with the grey hair is WRONG, mainly because it would be two grey haired men,grey hair says too old to young voters. one grey is good,two is too much! Liberman has already run for VP,awhile back. and he did not help.Romney is also good ,because around 50% of the mormon church,I believe, is now spanish. If you wanted someone to balance your checkbook,would you want an financial expert like Romney,or somone just starting out,with very little experiencelike Obama?

  • SteveAndrew

    August 2, 2008 at 8:24 am

    From the comments posted above mine, there seems to be a lot of disinformation and lies about Mitt Romney. Some of my friends over at comMITTed are trying to dispel these notions but they still remain. Members who are impenetrable to reason and facts.

    Let me state this – Romney has only flipped on abortion. Not guns, not illegal immigration, not the war, not taxes. A flip for abortion, even though Mitt himself has always been pro-life he believed he shouldn’t exert what he believes on the people of Massachusetts. He flipped at the end of his term but still retained his promise to the people of Massachusetts that he wouldn’t do anything legistaively to prevent abortions.

    Do any of the members have questions about Mitt Romney?

    SteveAndrews last blog post..You Know You Wanna…Vote For Romney

  • SteveAndrew

    August 2, 2008 at 12:04 pm

    That open-letter fails to cite sources therefor the validity of the claims are frivolous. Romney opposes both gay marriage and civil unions. If he is forced to enact either one, he chooses civil unions.

    There is a difference between running and consulting. Both sides have lobbyists, I wish they didn’t but they do. Anything else?

    S

    SteveAndrews last blog post..You Know You Wanna…Vote For Romney

  • Flap

    August 2, 2008 at 12:06 pm

    Click the next link and all of the ones associated in the piece.

    There are a number of concerns Republicans have with Mitt Romney.

  • Flap

    August 2, 2008 at 12:31 pm

    Those pieces have been up for some time now and you have to remember the context in which they were written.

    The blog template allows for the change in colors and style. I thought it was novel and different.

  • Craig

    August 2, 2008 at 1:39 pm

    Flip and Flap,
    You guys are just a little confused. Time and medication will help.

    1. Yes, Romney spent a lot of money. Most of it was his money because he’s smart and made it. Didn’t borrow it and the plead for someone to pay him back. After spending this money, he polled over 4 MILLION votes, about 50 % more the Huckabee. He polled 31 % of the vote in the Evangelical South, compared to Huckabee’s 39 %
    2. Romney finished at + 25 % among JUST Evangelical voters in Zogby’s July13th Religion poll, second to Huckabee’s 39 % . But he and Huckabee were the only candidates who got into the plus column, certainly a pretty good endorsement from the religious community.
    3. In Zogby’s July 18th poll, Romney scored the highest net numbers considering what VP would add the most voters to a McCain ticket
    4. In the primaries , in 20 states across the country, Romney ran stong every where. Huckabee ran stong in one region
    South West Midwest Northeast
    Romney 30 % 42 % 36 % 38 %
    Huckabee 39 % 14 % 24 % 9 %

    These are not my numbers, these are the voters that McCain must get to win. Read the tea leaves.

  • Craig

    August 2, 2008 at 1:50 pm

    And Flap,
    Sarah Palin would do everybody a big service by getting Ted Stevens to drop out and taking his spot . She can hold a critical Senate seat in Alaska against Begich. People in Alaska already know her. Certainly the 2200 voters in Wasilla know her from her turn as Mayor before the Governorship. But there is absolutely no way Sarah Palin can be effectively introduced to the nation in the very short time McCain has in this year of September conventions. If he wanted her, he should have selected her in May and spent the summer introducing her. No one, except a few political aficionados , ever heard of her. Obama would focus on the one person that has a shorter resume than he has and correctly point out that she would be one ” incident” away from the Oval office and 3 years detached from being the Mayor of Wasilla ( Population 8400 ). Also, there is an ongoing investigation. It is probably political and will come to nought, BUT, there is a chance, in October, for a surprise that would grab the headlines and perhaps steal a tight election away from McCain.

  • Craig

    August 2, 2008 at 2:27 pm

    Flap,
    Can you believe what the Dems would do with Carly Fiorina?She was responsible for literally thousands of lost jobs in downsizing exercises at ATT and HP. Then, she was fired by the HP Board for not making the numbers AFTER these folks were ” let go.”

  • Flap

    August 2, 2008 at 4:44 pm

    @47

    Carly Fiorina is a good woman and will make a good GOP candidate in the future. But, she has never run or won an elected office.

    She or Meg Whitman may make excellent candidates for California Governor in 2010.

    BTW you exaggerate the negative in her business career.

  • SteveAndrew

    August 2, 2008 at 5:52 pm

    1. Mitt didn’t nominate the judge. Mitt can’t control what judges do. Irrelevant

    Romney approved Tuttman’s nomination to the commonwealth’s Governor’s Council, an eight-member body elected to screen and confirm a variety of gubernatorial appointees, including judicial appointees. The council approved Tuttman’s nomination.

    2. Mitt has flipped on abortion. Only flip.

    3. Romney never supported McCain – Feingold. No flip here.

    Romney campaign responds, saying Romney never supported McCain-Feingold: “Governor Romney has supported transparency and accountability, but he wholeheartedly agrees with conservative activists across the country that the McCain-Feingold-Thompson campaign finance legislation authored by Fred Thompson was an abomination that restricted the First Amendment rights of conservative advocacy groups who wanted their voice heard in the political process Governor Romney will not relent in his disagreement with Fred Thompson and John McCain on their support of that legislation that hindered the conservative movement’s role in the political process.”

    4. Read this

    Romney opposes both gay marriage and civil unions but if he is forced to choose between the two he’ll choose civil unions

    5. I’m not Mitt so I don’t know when he has gone hunting. Perhaps he does perhaps he doesn’t. Doesn’t have anything to do with the issues though.

    6. So what, he likes L. Ron Hubbard? Is it a sin?

    7. How is putting a dog on top of a car relevant to the issues or even Mitt Romney? I assure you I’ve done some things that I’ve later looked back on and wish I hadn’t done.

    8. The actions surrogates commit do not in anyway reflect Gov. Romney unless he lags in condemning what the surrogate did. The post doesn’t state whether Mitt fired him but I hope you find out if he did.

    9. Again it doesn’t state if Mitt refunded the money, tell me what you find.

    10. So what if the 5 Romney brothers and Mitt himself did not go into war? Mitt avoided the military by having a educational/religious deferment, once he finished them he had a high lottery number resulting in him not serving. Does not joining the military make you less patriotic? Though I agree Mitt shouldn’t have made the comparison between getting him elected and serving in the military.

    11. It’s absolutely impossible to pass legislation as a Republican governor/president with a Democratically controlled house and or senate. Mitt Romney tried to pass an all Republican bill but what do you know? The Democratic legislature struck it down, making the Governor edit the bill to add unnecessary addendum to please the Democrats so they could sign it.

    12. Again Mitt can’t control what his/her surrogates do nor can he control their companies. If a person who handled his campaign in South Carolina chooses to privately use his company to be negative against a candidate, its ok. Mitt disavowed the content of the website though he has not reason to apologize. The 2 things are totally different from each other.

    13. He refused to sign a ‘no-new tax pledge’ because he didn’t want to be inhibited if he had to raise taxes for a reason. He didn’t raise taxes though had fees raised such as fixing the road signs for inflation and raising D.L fees. There is a difference between taxes and fees.

    14. Romney was wrong in saying he had been a strong Republican when he was pro-choice for much of his term. Though again and again he is against gay marriage and civil unions.

    15. I don’t quite understand what consulting with lawyers matters. Enlighten me!

    16. Mitt made a mistake with his advisers, big deal.

    17. Mitt made a mistake about the NRA endorsement.

    So, out of 17 only about 2 or 3 are actually gaffes or flips.

    SteveAndrews last blog post..One Very Big Reason to Vote for Dr. Bob Onder in Missouri’s 9th CD, Part 3