Election 2010 Poll Watch: Republicans Hold Wide Lead in Key Voter Turnout Measure
Two months before this year’s midterm congressional elections, Gallup finds 54% of Republicans, compared with 30% of Democrats, already saying they have given “quite a lot of” or “some” thought to the contests.
The large party gap in “thought” suggests the typical Republican turnout advantage could be larger than usual this year if that gap persists until Election Day. Attention normally spikes as elections approach, and this is likely to occur among Democrats. However, it is unclear whether the Republicans have reached the limit for how much attention they will pay to a midterm election, or whether their attention will rise to perhaps a historic level by November. How this plays out will determine Democrats’ ability to catch up to Republicans on this measure before Election Day, and will in turn determine the size of the Republican turnout advantage.
My observation for California is an unmotivated/demoralized Democratic Party electorate with the GOP working hard at GOTV for the independent vote – which means Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman win.