Election 2012

2012 Poll Watch: Massachusetts Not Likely to be Competitive

"Mitt Romney is no longer a popular figure in Massachusetts and Barack Obama wouldn’t have too much trouble winning the state for reelection even if he had to face a home town nominee.

51% of Massachusetts voters have an unfavorable opinion of Romney to only 40% who view him favorably. Republicans like him for the most part (a 75/14 favorability) and independents narrowly do so as well (50/44). But for a Republican to be popular in a deep blue state requires a lot of appeal to Democrats and that Romney has little of, with only 16% seeing him positively to 76% with an unfavorable opinion. Romney is no Scott Brown as far as appeal across party lines goes.

" He’d certainly be better off than the rest of the possible Republican contenders though. Massachusetts voters have an extremely dim view of the other leading candidates. Mike Huckabee’s favorability is a -19 spread (29/48), Newt Gingrich’s is -31 (27/58), and Sarah Palin’s is -41 (27/68). Given those numbers it’s no surprise Obama trounces the rest of the field in hypothetical contests. He leads Gingrich and Huckabee by identical 57-33 margins. That 24 spread is similar to what he won in the state in 2012. Against Palin that advantage extends to 29 points at 61-32, an even more lopsided showing than Obama received against John McCain.

No real surprise here. The Democrats have become a regional party with Massachusetts being one of the big three with California and New York leading the pack.

tags: Barack_Obama Mitt_Romney

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