FL-Sen Poll Watch: GOP Favors Jeb Bush to Face Dem Senator Bill Nelson

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush

A good and wise choice.

If Jeb Bush would let them, Florida’s GOP faithful would crown him their Senate nominee in 2012 without a contest.  When given an eight-candidate list of potential nominees, they give Bush almost three-quarters of the vote, and no one else gets more than 6%.Unfortunately for the party, he is unlikely to run, and in his absence, almost a third of respondents are undecided.  In that case, their primary is likely to be a large and wide-open race, with the top four candidates bunched in the mid- to low teens.

Bush is the preference of 72% of the hardest-core Republican voters in the Sunshine State.  The next closest option is outgoing Attorney General and Gubernatorial primary loser Bill McCollum at 6%, with George LeMieux, Connie Mack IV, U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, and state Rep. Jennifer Carroll each at 3%, Mike Haridopolos at 1%, and Adam Hasner at less than 1%.  10% are either not sure or prefer someone else. 

With Bush eliminated from the field, though, any one of the lesser options could win at this point.  A full 31% have no idea who they would support, and of the remaining voters, 15% choose Mack, 14% McCollum, 11% LeMieux, 10% Carroll, 9% Haridopolos, 7% Buchanan, and 3% Hasner.  Considering the margin of error, almost all of them are statistically tied for the lead.  Tuesday’s release showed that Haridopolos, Hasner, and even LeMieux and Mack are essentially unknowns statewide, and that is still the case with these most dedicated partisans who ought to know them best.  So all of these possible nominees have plenty of time to make a name for themselves and fill the Bushless void.

But, alas, unless someone persuades him, it is unlikely Bush will run.

Really a shame since Bush, despite his open-borders mentality would certainly be a better Senator than Democrat Bill Nelson.