Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney is joined by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (L) and U.S. Representative Connie Mack (R-FL) (R) onboard his campaign plane Reuters Photo
Looks like the 2016 Presidential field is already set.
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush in a rematch of the Bush Vs. Clinton clan Presidential fight.
Former Florida governor Jeb Bush met Monday with a group of his former staffers at the J. W. Marriott hotel on Pennsylvania Avenue, just steps from the White House. Bush, a potential 2016 presidential contender, spent an hour in the hotel’s Cannon room, reminiscing and entertaining questions about his political future.
In an interview with NRO, Bush did not rule out a presidential run. “I am here to catch up with folks and promote education reform,” he said, smiling.
When asked again whether he will issue a Sherman-type statement about his future, Bush remained coy. “We have an alumni group that I like keeping in touch with,” he said. “I’m here to focus on educational reform, and that’s what I’m going to tell people.”
Neil Newhouse, Mitt Romney’s campaign pollster, among other GOP operatives, was at the meeting.
Here we go!
So, should we speculate as to Jeb’s Vice Presidential running mate?
Condoleezza Rice – without a doubt.
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Florida U.S. Senator Marco Rubio
The National Journal has one of its Political Insiders polls up and this time it is the Presidential race in 2016.
- Marco Rubio 40%
- Jeb Bush 27%
- Paul Ryan 9%
- Rick Santorum 9%
- Chris Christie 8%
- Jeb Bush 47%
- Chris Christie 28%,
- Marco Rubio 13%
And, we all know that if Hillary Clinton wants the Democratic nomination that she will be the nominee.
What do I envision?
A Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush race.
Former Gov. Jeb Bush speaks at the Hispanic Leadership Network’s conference, Thursday, Jan. 26, 2012 in MiamiYou knew it was going to start.
The GOP establishment is getting antsy about Mitt Romney and if he does manage to lose Michigan – well, he is done.
A prominent Republican senator just told me that if Romney can’t win in Michigan, the Republican Party needs to go back to the drawing board and convince somebody new to get into the race.
“If Romney cannot win Michigan, we need a new candidate,” said the senator, who has not endorsed anyone and requested anonymity.
The senator believes Romney will ultimately win in Michigan but says he will publicly call for the party to find a new candidate if he does not.
“We’d get killed,” the senator said if Romney manages to win the nomination after he failed to win the state in which he grew up.
“He’d be too damaged,” he said. “If he can’t even win in Michigan, where his family is from, where he grew up.”
What about Rick Santorum?
“He’d lose 35 states,” the senator said, predicting the same fate for Newt Gingrich.
And, who would the new candidate be?
Jeb Bush, said this Senator.
I, frankly, think it will be Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels or Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal – or even Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan.
If the GOP wants to win against President Obama, they had better hope Santorum beats Romney in Michigan.
According to the latest Gallup Poll.
After enjoying 14- to 15-percentage-point leads over Mitt Romney in early December, Newt Gingrich is now statistically tied with Romney in national Republican preferences for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination: 26% for Gingrich vs. 24% for Romney. This follows a steady decline in support for Gingrich in the past 10 days.
The latest findings are from Dec. 13-18 Gallup Daily tracking, based on 1,177 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who are registered to vote. Gallup initiated Daily tracking of the Republican presidential trial heat on Dec. 1, and reports the results in continuous five-day rolling averages.
No single candidate has benefited proportionately more from Gingrich’s 11-point decline — from 37% to 26% — over the past 10 days. Rather, Gallup polling finds slight increases in support for the six remaining major candidates in the race. Also, the percentage of Republicans favoring none of the candidates or who are unsure has risen by three points, from 14% to 17%.
Twenty-four percent of registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents now favor Romney for the nomination. This is up just slightly from the 22% to 23% level seen for much of the first two weeks of December. Support for Ron Paul is now 11%, up from 8% to 9% earlier in the month — marking the first time his support has been above 10% since mid-September. At that time, a Gallup poll of all Republicans/Republican-leaning independents put his support at 13%.
The GOP Establishment “pile on” against Newt Gingrich has been profound and frequent. Gingrich who has little campaign cash and/or organization to respond to the attacks both in the free media and “on air” has had as meteoric a rise as has been his collapse. Gingrich has wilted under all of the attacks. Here is the graph:
It seems the GOP voters are “settling” now for Mitt Romney or are giving other candidates a second look.
I maintain that there is still time for a third candidate to arise from the ash pile of former GOP Poll leaders. Today’s hunch is Jeb Bush who, today, has a piece in the Wall Street Journal.
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Newt Gingrich – 39% Vs. 41%
- Sarah Palin – 59% Vs. 31%
- Mitt Romney – 51% Vs. 34%
- Tim Pawlenty – 48% Vs. 18%
- Herman Cain – 38% Vs. 24% Vs Not Sure = 38%
- Michele Bachmann – 53% Vs. 16%
- Jeb Bush – 51% Vs. 20%
- Ron Paul – 42% Vs. 29%
- Rick Santorum – 29% Vs. 18% Vs. Not Sure = 53%
- Rudy Giuliani – 49% Vs. 31%
- Donald Trump – 28% vs. 56%
- Jon Huntsman – 7% Vs. 23% Vs. Not Sure = 70%
- Chris Christie – 42% Vs. 12% Vs. Not Sure = 46%
- Rick Perry – 21% Vs. 16% Vs. Not Sure = 63%
- Paul Ryan – 42% Vs. 14% Vs. Not Sure = 45%
GOP Primary Caucus Head to Head:
Given the choices of Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for President next year?
- Romney – 21%
- Palin – 15%
- Cain – 15%
- Gingrich -12%
- Pawlenty – 10%
- Ron Paul – 8%
- Jon Huntsman – 0%
If Sarah Palin does not run then?
- Romney – 26%
- Cain – 16%
- Gingrich – 15%
- Bachmann – 14%
- Pawlenty – 10%
- Paul – 11%
- Huntsman – 1%
If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
- Romney – 48% Vs. Palin – 41% Vs. Not Sure = 11%
If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
- Romney – 41% Vs. Pawlenty – 41% Vs. Not Sure = 18%
If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
- Romney – 48% Vs. Cain – 34% Vs. Not Sure = 19%
If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Romney – 46% Vs. Bachmann – 38% Vs. Not Sure = 16%
Mitt Romney is leading in Iowa ever since Mike Huckabee exited the race, but he is being challenged by a surging Herman Cain. Iowa will be the first primary state for the 2012 Presidential nominee and is a caucus state.
Cain and Palin have been the biggest beneficiaries in Iowa of Huckabee and Trump’s decisions not to run. Cain is at 15% now despite not even having been included on our last poll. Palin’s gained 7 points in the six weeks since our last poll compared to 5 point gains for Romney, Pawlenty, and Bachmann, a 3 point gain for Gingrich, and a 2 point bump for Paul.
Romney’s leading in Iowa based on his strength with centrist and center right Republican voters. With moderates he’s at 34% to 16% for Palin, 13% for Paul, and 11% for Gingrich. With ‘somewhat conservative’ voters he’s at 24% to 15% for Pawlenty, 13% for Palin, and 12% for Gingrich and Cain. His strength with those two groups outweighs his continuing weakness with the furthest right group of voters in the state, which constitute the largest segment of the Republican electorate at 41%. With those ‘very conservative’ folks Romney can muster only a fourth place finish at 13%. Cain and Palin tie for the lead with that group of voters at 19% followed by Bachmann at 15%.
I would think one would have to say that while Mitt Romney is leading, conservative candidates Cain, Palin and Bachmann are splitting votes. If Iowa conservatives were to consolidate on one candidate, then Romney is in trouble. Surprisingly, Tim Pawlenty, a moderate-conservative does the best head to head with Romney though.
Here is a summary of the favorable vs unfavorable data:
So, what does this all mean?
There is definitely room for the entry of a “new” candidate like Paul Ryan, Chris Christie or Jeb Bush. The $1 million question is whether Sarah Palin runs and if she does, whether the GOP establishment then run someone else against her, ie. Ryan,Christie or Bush?
Tim Pawlenty is not catching fire and Jon Huntsman fledgling campaign is on life support – at least in Iowa.
The entire poll is here.
Nothing like a busted Amtrak train to bring me face-to-face with the one man Republicans would love — and I mean LOVE — to get into the 2012 race for the Republican presidential nomination. Former governor Jeb Bush (R-Fla.) and his wife Columba were just a few rows behind me. So, of course, I couldn’t resist asking him a question he has heard myriad times. “Is there any possible way your party could convince you to run for president,” I asked? “I don’t think so,” he said. “A lot of people are asking me that, and it’s flattering. But the Magic Eight Ball says, ‘Outlook not so good.’ ”
This comes mere hours before former House speaker Newt Gingrich alerts the world via Twitter, Facebook and Fox News that he will seek the 2012 Republican nomination for president. According to Gallup, he will enter the race with high name recognition and low positive intensity. I’d love to say there’s nowhere to go but up for him, but that wouldn’t be true.
My bet is that Mitch Daniels and/or Chris Christie will jump in very soon.
After Mitt Romney’s disastrous blow up on RpomneyCare today, he is out and Mike Huckabee is still not showing any effort.
President Obama shakes hands with former Florida Governor Jeb BushAccording to the latest Viewpoint Florida Poll.
If the 2012 Presidential election were held today, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush would defeat President Barack Obama in the Sunshine State by nearly 20 points.
Governor Bush’s 57%-38% lead over Obama can be attributed to several interesting figures found in the crosstabs of our statewide survey of likely voters in Florida. For example, Bush enjoys a 66%-31% lead over President Obama among male voters, but only leads Obama 50%-44% among women.
Governor Bush leads President Obama among all age groups except voters aged 18-34, where Obama hangs on to a slim 48%-45% lead. Bush holds a 56%-40% lead with voters over 65, and crushes Obama 66%-32% with voters between 35 and 49 years old.
26% of Democrats stated they would vote for the younger brother of former President George W. Bush over Barack Obama if the Presidential election were held today. Bush has almost unanimous support from his base with 89% of Republicans supporting him, while Obama gets just 71% support from members of his own party. Governor Bush also leads President Obama 46%-40% among independent voters.
Finally, our regional crosstabs show Governor Bush dominating the President in Jacksonville and Florida’s Panhandle. 71% of respondents in that region preferred Governor Bush, to just 27% who said they would pull the lever for President Obama. Bush earns 60% support in Orlando and the Space Coast, beating Obama in that swing region by 27 points. Bush even bests Obama in South Florida, where he holds a narrow 48%-46% lead.
Except Jeb is not running…..
But, can Bush help a candidate, perhaps like Mitch Daniels?
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Indiana Governor Mitch DanielsIt’s starting – the mainstream GOP abandoning Mitt Romney and finding another horse.
Jeb Bush, brother of one former president and son of another, isn’t going to seek the White House for himself next year, he says, but he likes what he’s seen so far from Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels.
Daniels, in his second term, is among a slew of Republicans considering a presidential campaign next year.
“Mitch is the only one who sees the stark [economic] perils and will offer real, detailed proposals,” Bush told Jacksonville business leaders, according to the Florida Times-Union.
“He would be the anti-Obama, at least socially,” Bush said in the newspaper’s account of a private gathering. “He is not good on a teleprompter, but if my theory is right that would work well for him.” Daniels, a Midwesterner with an understated sense of humor, also told the conservatives in Washington the next president will have to consider revamping entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare.
Jeb Bush’s good will stopped far short of any endorsement for Daniels, who first must decide whether he is going to take the plunge in 2012.
Mitch Daniels is not only the anti-Obama but also the anti-Sarah Pain and anti-Mitt Romney.
Mitch is recovering in Indianapolis from rotator cuff surgery yesterday but he has definitley NOT ruled out a run for the White House.
This is a likely pick-up seat for the GOP in 2012.
Florida Sen. Bill Nelson falls short of the 50 percent mark against five potential Republican opponents, according to a poll commissioned by Ron Sachs Communications and conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research.
The survey, which was shared exclusively with POLITICO, shows former Gov. Jeb Bush as the most powerful Republican challenger for Nelson. Bush leads the senator by 8 points, 49 percent to 41 percent.
But Bush is not considered likely to run, and the polling memo notes that a challenge from the former governor is a “bullet [Nelson] will likely get to dodge.”
That means the Democrat will face off against a Republican who lacks Bush’s high profile and statewide popularity, such as Rep. Connie Mack, former Sen. George LeMieux, state Senate President Mike Haridopolos or former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner.
Nelson fared better against all four of those candidates in the Sachs/Mason-Dixon poll, though he failed to win a majority of the vote in any match-up.
The closest race would be between Nelson and Mack, whose father – Connie Mack III – Nelson replaced in the Senate. Nelson would have just a 5-point advantage over Mack, leading 45 percent to 40 percent.
Against LeMieux, Nelson’s lead widens to 14 points — he’s ahead 49 percent to 35 percent. Nelson has a 23-point lead over Haridopolo (48 percent to 25 percent), and a 22-point lead over Hasner (46 percent to 22 percent).
The poll was taken from Feb. 9-10 and tested 625 registered voters.
If former Florida Governor Jewb Bush EVER wanted to re-enter the political arena, this is the race. It is Jeb’s for the taking.
If Jeb declines, then I would consider his political career over.
- 48% Obama Vs. 41% Romney (41% Vs. 40%, September 2010)
- 49% Obama Vs. 41% Huckabee (43% Vs. 40%)
- 56% Obama Vs. 35% Palin (48% Vs. 35%)
- 55% Obama Vs. 35% Gingrich (53% Vs. 29%, January 2010)
- 54% Obama Vs. 34% J. Bush (45% Vs 37%, September 2010)
The current crop of GOP Presidential hopefuls have been making no inroads into defeating President Obama. It may indeed be time for the Republican Party to look to the future and nominate some new and different candidates.
Fox News / Anderson Robbins Research (D) / Shaw & Company Research (R)
2/7-9/11; 911 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews