President 2012: Does the GOP Primary Process Help Sarah Palin?

Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin looks down during the Pledge of Allegiance before speaking to the LIA (Long Island Association) Annual Meeting & Luncheon at the Crest Hollow Country Club in Woodbury, New York, February 17, 2011

Yes, according to former New Hampshire Republican Senator Judd Gregg.

Because the nominating process has become so dominated by primary elections, with the vast majority of the delegates chosen by direct vote, it is entirely possible that with no presumptive winner or even favorites, a candidate who runs second or third in a great many primaries could go into the convention with a sizable block of delegates.

Who would this favor? Does Sarah Palin come to mind? Although she is not viewed by most as strong enough to win, she is viewed by many as a person worth voting for to make a statement. And primaries tend to be populated by people who go to the polls with the purpose of making a statement.

Finishing second and third isn’t really a big deal — until you get enough delegates to be the nominee. And picking a nominee who it seems would be easily defeated by President Obama might not be the best statement.

As I have been saying over and over the past few months, the GOP Presidential nomination is really Sarah Palin’s to decline. She has an excellent chance to win Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada – all early contests. She would do very well in Florida. Then on Super Tuesday, she would likely win some and lose some.

But, would any candidate, meaning Mitt Romney and/or Tim Pawlenty have sufficent numbers of delegates going into the convention to beat her on the first ballot?

Probably not.

Now, I am not positive that Sarah will run in 2012. She is simply NOT polling very well against President Obama and a Goldwater type of loss, while Quixotic, would hurt her brand and pocketbook.

But, Sarah CAN win the nomination.