California Citizen’s Redistricting Committee Draft Maps: Congressional Winners and Losers

This piece from the Washington Post sums up the California Congressional winners and losers.

Democratic redistricting expert Paul Mitchell projects that the proposed map includes 32 Democratic seats and five Democratic-leaning seats, with 13 Republican seats and three seats that lean Republican. If each side won the seats that were solidly or leaning in their favor, Democrats would see a net gain of three seats in the delegation in 2012.

Similarly, Republican consultant Matt Rexroad estimates the Democrats’ advantage at 3-5 seats, though other Republicans place the estimate slightly lower and insist they will also get new opportunities from the map.

If Democrats could net between three and five seats, it would make California one of their best states in the coming round of redistricting, along with Illinois.

Republican Reps. Elton Gallegly, David Dreier, Gary Miller and Brian Bilbray all get the short end of the stick in the new map and could have difficulty returning to Congress. The GOP would also have to defend Reps. Dan Lungren and Jeff Denham, who saw things get tougher in their respective districts.

On the Democratic side, Reps. Lois Capps, Loretta Sanchez and Jim Costa got more vulnerable, while Rep. Dennis Cardoza remains in potentially competitive district.

In the end, chaos is the order the day in the new map — forcing many incumbents to reevaluatw their political futures, with almost half of the state’s 52 current members of Congress drawn into districts with another incumbent (a 53rd seat is vacant).

The map will now be aired publicly and will have to be approved by Aug. 15, with nine of 14 commissioners required to support it. The commission is comprised of five Republicans, five Democrats and four who don’t belong to either party.

On first glance, it looks like the changing of the guard for Democratic and GOP Congressional incumbents. There will be some retirements and new candidates will emerge from the redistricting in the state legislature.

The biggest winners – Latino politicians and the Democrats.